Thanks for the Ask, Anon- I think this is really interesting and hardly being discussed.

(We’re talking about this post)

Iran and Venezuela matter less to the Trump administration on their own than in how they strengthen China’s global position and serve its goals for hegemony.

No, that’s not an exaggeration.

What’s the administration’s concern about China?

China openly and explicitly plans to replace the US-led international system with it’s own through many long-term efforts with client or partner states:

• Infrastructure financing (Belt and Road Initiative)
• Energy deals
• Technology partnerships
• Political alliances with governments that oppose US influence.

Many of these are sanctioned or isolated states, because those countries are eager for Chinese support.

Why does Iran matter to China?

As an energy supplier:

• China can’t domestically produce enough energy to keep its economy growing.
• Iran is one of China"s most important energy suppliers, especially because it sells oil at discounted prices to evade sanctions.
• China is widely believed to be Iran’s largest oil customer by an enormous margin, which helps keep Iran’s economy afloat.

As a strategic spoiler to consume US attention and resources:

• Iran ties down US military resources. Look at the naval assets sent the gulf and from what region they were pulled
• Iran destabilizes the region through proxies
• Iran  forces Washington to spend attention and resources there instead of focusing on China and the Indo-Pacific.
• Iran also participates in Chinese geopolitical initiatives and technology cooperation. China sends them missile technology and precursor chemicals for weapons development.

Why does Venezuela matter to China?

• Venezuela is another major oil producer aligned against US influence.
• China has lent Venezuela tens of billions of dollars and has deep economic ties with the Maduro government.
• Vebezuela gives China a friendly regime in the Western Hemisphere, something historically rare for major US rivals. When MAGA talks about the “Donroe Doctrine,” this what they’re talking about. Venezuelan oil exports and political alignment help China expand influence close to the United States.

How the Trump administration sees the strategic threat

Trump officials increasingly describe China as the primary geopolitical rival of the United States.

In that framework, weakening China’s partners and supply chains becomes part of thwarting Beijing’s plans to replace the US as the world’s hyperpower.

What does the Trump administration think pressure on Iran and Venezuela will do?

• Cut off oil revenue that flows into regimes aligned with China
• Limit China’s access to discounted energy, slowing Chinese ambitions.
• Weaken governments that support a broader anti-US coalition.

If Iran and Venezuela become weaker or less stable partners:

• China loses energy sources
• China loses political allies
• China loses leverage in key regions.

The fundamental strategic struggle driving geopolitics is between the United States and China, and actions against Iranian and Venezuelan regimes are at least partly aimed at undermining China’s global strategy.

Iran and Venezuela are pieces on a larger geopolitical chessboard than most seem to grasp.

Israel, though, is playing a different game on a different scale. It’s not seeking hegemony or expansion, just security.

Israel would rather have the US as the dominant hyperpower than China. The US is more likely to promote liberal values, free markets, individual freedoms, and pluralist societies.

Israel wants to end (or at least dramatically reduce) the threat that Iran has proven to be for nearly 50 years by basing its identity on their genocide.

Israel Is taking advantage of overlapping interests with the US and a rare example where the US will not stand in the way of their finishing a war.

Historically, the US has withheld permission for Israel to win and finish each war that it didn’t start and didn’t want, ensuring that the next war was inevitable.

Even if the US and Israel don’t utterly destroy the Islamic regime’s network of genocidal theocratic supremacy or help it be overthrown, they hope to at least cripple its ability to destabilize the reason and cost Israeli lives. A stabilized region would have more Arab neighbor states which find it easier to normalize relations with Israel.

The Western news keeps saying this war started when the US and Israel attacked Iran.

This is horseshit. Iran has been at war with both for nearly 50 years.

I don’t know if this war will turn out to have been a good idea…but I think the motives of the US and Israel are clear.

So why do members of the Trump administration keep giving other reasons for this campaign?

What would be accomplished by admitting it’s about China? Doing so would lessen their strategic advantage and help risk turning a cold war into a warmer one.

Oh, so you’re in favor of this Trump madness, you fascist Zionist asshole?!

If that’s your take-away, you have a reading comprehension problem.

None of this is an endorsement of drives, means, or methods - it’s just an explanation of motivations.

• Supportive of Trump?
  
  No.
• Zionist?
  
  Yes, I think the Jewish people should have the right to national self-determination in a small portion of their indigenous homeland. That’s what the word means. That’s all it means.
• Fascist?
  
  No. Really, no.
• Asshole?
  
  Possibly?
  
  Nobody does an accurate character evaluation in the mirror.
  Nobody. Somebody else should answer that one. (No wrong answers.)

From what I can gather so far (from limited information) I think:

• The school was wrecked
• The school is next to a military target

So I’d guess one of two things happened:

1. Israel hit the military target and a secondary explosion there took out the neighboring school

or

2. The IAF had a targeting failure.

If we ever know actual casualty numbers, it probably won’t be for a long while.

Should you feel bad for doubting the claims of a regime which lies as often as you exhale?

No.

Are claims of Israel targeting children anything other than rank Judenhass?

No.

• There’s no confirmation of what happened from any reliable, credible source. We know the school was hit by something.
• The “failed Iranian missile launch” story has absolutely no credible support to date and it has been disappointing to see Jumblr folks who should know better spreading misinformation.
• If we ever know what actually happened, I doubt it’ll be soon.

For the sake of argument, though, let’s imagine for a moment that there’s strong evidence of Israel having a targeting failure, missing the naval facility next door, and accidentally hitting the school.

That would be a horrible tragedy.

Ita possible the IDF made a mistake. It has made mistakes before, as has every military.

It also has an established track record which shows how they reapond to such things by seeking accountability. People get court marshalled.

There’s absolutely no evidence that Israel or the US, however, have targeted civilians in Iran. None.

At the the same time, there’s ample proof that the regime, their proxy Hezbollah, their proxy the Houthis, and their proxy Hamas have all routinely, explicitly, openly targeted civilians.

But the same people upset about a possible accident in Iran don’t care about that at all, because their outrage is selective to suit their narrative of Israel/US/West bad/evil/sick/wrong.

So I’ve tuned that noise out because I can’t change it except as I encounter it individually and have the opportunity to argue calmly for consistent moral principles which ignore the actor and focus on the act.

Civilians die in wars, and that’s horrible.

However:

• Nobody has killed more Iranians than the regime. I’m told by Iranians (who know far more than I do) that the regime has likely killed ~30,000 Iranians just in the last couple months.
• Wars fueled by the regime have killed about a million Arab civilians.
• The Islamic regine has made “Death to America, Death to Israel, a Curse Upon the Jews” a core pillar of its very identity for 50 years and is responsible for the deaths of at least 600 Americans and at least 1,500 Israelis
• The regime has sponsored/committed terrost attacks across the globe.
• Iran has actively, deliberately destabilized the region and it’s Arab neighbors. It sponsored Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis for explcilty genocidal reasons.

If the Iranian people welcome it, if this will end the regime’s ability to destabilize and threaten the region, I’ll be glad it was done, even at the cost of civilian casualties.

The death of Ali Khamenei is a gift to the world, which is now lighter by one monster.

If Israel and/or the US were targeting civilians, I’d be on the street protesting - but there’s absolutely no evidence for that assertion.

So this incident, however awful regardless of who is responsible, doesn’t make an appearance in the top 20 things giving me stomach aches in recent weeks.

Perhaps because they threatened to do so and must follow through.

Perhaps because they know some of those gulf states, particularly the UAE, pose a serious alternative to the regime’s violent political Islamism.

Keep in mind that ideologues and fanatics don’t use rational faculties to make decisions. Nothing about the worldview of the regime is based on a this-world, rational, practical calculus.

If they could travel back in time, they would absolutely regard Hitler’s death as a “victory for Imperialism.”