The SoCal Strategies Virginia Poll of 800 likely voters was conducted from October 28 to 29 using the Pollfish online panel. The survey was sponsored through a crowdfund promoted by Red Eagle Politics. Respondents were filtered to include only registered voters currently living in the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Respondent Quality
Pollfish utilizes anti-fraud systems to ensure data quality, with an AI-driven algorithm that detects suspicious responses by examining response speed. SoCal Strategies also uses an attention check question in its questionnaire. Respondents who failed this question were removed from the survey.
Likely Voter Weighting
The likely voter sample was weighted in multiple stages.
First, each respondent was assigned a base weight equal to the vote probability SoCal Strategies calculates by examining vote history, self-reported likelihood of voting, and political engagement.
Next, we calculated the average vote probability within each demographic group.
Finally, the vote probabilities were multiplied by each group’s percentage of the Virginia voter file (or ACS estimates for educational attainment) to create targets, and the sample was weighted using iterative proportional fitting against these targets. The sample was weighted by race, education, age, gender, and recalled vote (all adjusted for expected turnout in 2025).
Gubernatorial Race
Abigail Spanberger maintains a wide lead in the gubernatorial race. Although her net margin is down two points from the previous SoCal Strategies survey, she has remained steady at 53% and appears poised for a relatively easy win next week. Spanberger continues to hold a strong advantage among self-identified independents, who back her 52–40. She has also flipped 6% of Trump 2024 voters, while Earle-Sears has converted just 2% of Harris 2024 voters.
Lieutenant Governor
In a race that has largely flown under the radar compared to the other two statewide contests, John Reid now trails Ghazala Hashmi by just two points, down from the five-point advantage Hashmi held in early September. Reid’s outperformance of Earle-Sears is most evident among Virginians who say they are certain to vote in November, leading 52–44 among the same group that favors Spanberger by four points. Reid has also narrowed the Democratic advantage among self-identified independents to just four points.
Attorney General
Jason Miyares leads Jay Jones by two points statewide in the first poll conducted since Jones’s scandal became public. Prior to the controversy, Jones held a five-point lead and was polling even with lieutenant governor candidate Ghazala Hashmi. He now trails Miyares by 18 points among independents—a group that otherwise supports the two other Democratic candidates. Jones’s struggles are further underscored by a plurality of Virginians who say his text messages disqualify him from serving as attorney general. To remain competitive, Jones will need undecided voters to break his way in the final week before the election.
