Odds of President Donald Trump being impeached during his second term sat at a record high on Friday.
Why It Matters
Trump has faced impeachment calls following strikes against Iran and a widening Middle East conflict. The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran in a military operation dubbed Operation Epic Fury early Saturday morning, following failed talks between the U.S. and Iran to address the latter's nuclear program. Iran declined to halt uranium enrichment, a major demand from the U.S. The strikes have continued in the days since and killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
At least six U.S. service members have died. Meanwhile, the civilian death toll has reached at least 1,168 people, according to an estimate by the U.S-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.
Donald Trump Impeachment Betting Odds: What to Know
Kalshi’s betting odds suggest traders believe it is likely Trump will be impeached at some point during his second term. On Friday, the betting odds market showed a 67 percent chance he would be impeached before the end of his term. That’s an increase from one month earlier, when the likelihood of impeachment stood at 62 percent.
In Kalshi's market, the odds of impeachment against Trump are 67 percent, the highest since he returned to office. Impeachment odds first reached 67 percent on February 22 and have since shifted back and forth, but have not been higher.
Polymarket, meanwhile, showed that impeachment odds through 2026 dropped; the market showed an 11 percent chance of impeachment this year, down from 14 percent one month earlier.
Betting odds reflect traders' sentiment about current events, but they are not necessarily predictive.
Will Donald Trump Face Impeachment in 2026?
Republicans currently hold a majority of seats in the House of Representatives and Senate, and most of the party remains firmly supportive of the president, so impeachment is not viewed as likely until after the midterms. Democrats are hopeful about their chances of reclaiming control of the House, but leadership has not said whether they plan to launch impeachment investigations into him.
Impeachment efforts would face even tougher odds in the Senate, where conviction would require the support of two-thirds of the senators. Democrats face a tough road to Senate control in November, but even if they win a slim majority, conviction would still require Republican support.
A White House spokesperson previously dismissed impeachment calls in a statement to Newsweek, writing, "Prior to ever holding office, President Trump has been consistent: lran can never possess a nuclear weapon...President Trump is taking decisive action to eliminate major national security threats to the American people, which past Presidents have talked about for 47 years, but only this President had the courage to accomplish."
The House voted against an impeachment resolution against Trump in December 2025, focusing on his remarks that Democratic lawmakers were urging military members not follow unlawful orders, which engaged in sedition. Nearly two dozen Democrats voted against that impeachment effort.
Republicans have warned that Trump could be impeached if Democrats reclaim a House majority in the midterms.
"If we lose the House majority, the radical left, as you’ve already heard, is going to impeach President Trump. They’re going to create absolute chaos. We cannot let that happen," House Seaker Mike Johnson, Louisiana Republican, said at Turning Point USA’s AmericaFest conference in December.
How Many Times Has Donald Trump Been Impeached?
The president was impeached twice during his first White House term and acquitted in the Senate both times, as a two-thirds majority of votes are required for conviction in the upper chamber. The first impeachment focused on his alleged efforts to pressure Ukraine to investigate then-Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. The second came after the January 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol riot when his supporters violently protested the 2020 election results.
Impeachment efforts against Trump have stalled during his second term in office.
In December, Representative Al Green, a Texas Democrat, introduced articles of impeachment accusing Trump of abusing presidential power by calling for the “execution of members of Congress” in response to a video posted by several Democratic lawmakers. That impeachment effort was opposed by 23 Democrats while an additional 47 voted "present."
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democratic Whip Katherine Clark and Democratic Caucus Chair Pete Aguilar wrote in a statement at the time they believe impeachment a "sacred constitutional vehicle designed to hold a corrupt executive accountable for abuse of power, breaking the law and violating the public trust."
"The effort traditionally requires a comprehensive investigative process, the collection and review of thousands of documents, an exacting scrutiny of the facts, the examination of dozens of key witnesses, Congressional hearings, sustained public organizing and the marshaling of the forces of democracy to build a broad national consensus. None of that serious work has been done, with the Republican majority focused solely on rubber stamping Donald Trump’s extreme agenda. Accordingly, we will be voting 'present' on today’s motion to table the impeachment resolution as we continue our fight to make life more affordable for everyday Americans," they wrote.
In June 2025, nearly 130 Democrats voted to table articles of impeachment introduced by Green over what he viewed as "illegal and unconstitutional" military strikes against Iran.
What People Are Saying
Matt Stoller, a researcher at the American Economic Liberties Project, wrote on X: “The President can’t just launch a war. There are some grey lines around force but this attack has crossed every one of them. It’s unconstitutional and a high crime or misdemeanor. Just impeach Trump already.”
Kat Abughazaleh, a journalist running for Congress in Illinois’ 8th District, posted on Bluesky: “The morally bankrupt Trump administration has partnered with another morally bankrupt authoritarian to declare an unprovoked war on Iran, already killing scores of civilians. We need an immediate vote from Congress on a War Powers Resolution. Then articles of impeachment.”
President Donald Trump said during a speech in January: "But you gotta win the midterms, because if we don't win the midterms, it's just going to be, I mean, they'll find a reason to impeach me. I'll get impeached."
What Happens Next
Many Democrats remain hesitant to turn to impeachment against Trump at this point, despite significant criticism toward the administration. The likelihood of impeachment could hinge on the results of the 2026 midterm elections and whether Democrats are able to win a majority of seats in Congress.
Update 3/6/26, 10:35 a.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.
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