Democrats are favored to win 60 seats. ↑9
Republicans are favored to win 40 seats. ↓9
The Democrats have a 94% chance of winning the chamber, with a 12% chance of winning a supermajority. While the Republicans have a 6% chance of winning the chamber.
A tipping point is the races that gets the winning party the majority/supermajority. It is calculated by moving every seat until that party reaches the required number of seats.
With Democrats winning a simple majority 82% of the time, the following districts are the ones to get them over the line.
97th
65th
21st
57th
84th
82nd
71st
89th
58th
41st
75th
20th
22nd
96th
29th
94th
73rd
30th
27th
70th
With Republicans winning a simple majority 4% of the time, the following districts are the ones to get them over the line.
65th
97th
84th
21st
57th
82nd
58th
94th
41st
Below shows the movement of the race for the chamber over the election cycle.
District | Incumbent | Proj. Margin | Win Odds |
1 | Patrick Hope | D+63.1 | >99% |
2 | Adele McClure | D+62.6 | >99% |
3 | Alfonso Lopez | - | Uncontested |
4 | Charniele Herring | - | Uncontested |
5 | Elizabeth Bennett-Parker | - | Uncontested |
6 | Rip Sullivan | D+31.3 | >99% |
7 | Karen Keys-Gamarra | D+49.8 | >99% |
8 | Irene Shin | D+41.3 | >99% |
9 | Karrie Delaney | D+29.1 | >99% |
10 | Dan Helmer | D+26.6 | >99% |
11 | David Bulova | D+42.6 | >99% |
12 | Holly Seibold | D+46.6 | >99% |
13 | Marcus Simon | D+52.2 | >99% |
14 | Vivian Watts | D+42.0 | >99% |
15 | Laura Jane Cohen | D+31.5 | >99% |
16 | Paul Krizek | D+44.1 | >99% |
17 | Mark Sickles | D+48.0 | >99% |
18 | Kathy Tran | D+36.8 | >99% |
19 | Rozia Henson | - | Uncontested |
20 | Michelle Maldonado | D+20.1 | >99% |
21 | Josh Thomas | D+11.2 | 94% |
22 | Ian Lovejoy | D+2.3 | 63% |
23 | Candi King | D+42.2 | >99% |
24 | Luke Torian | - | Uncontested |
25 | Briana Sewell | - | Uncontested |
26 | JJ Singh | D+28.9 | >99% |
27 | Atoosa Reaser | D+24.6 | >99% |
28 | David Reid | D+28.1 | >99% |
29 | Marty Martinez | D+19.9 | >99% |
30 | Geary Higgins | D+0.1 | 50% |
31 | Delores Oates | R+22.8 | >99% |
32 | Bill Wiley | R+18.3 | 99% |
33 | OPEN | R+44.7 | >99% |
34 | Tony Wilt | R+6.8 | 84% |
35 | Chris Runion | R+43.3 | >99% |
36 | Ellen Campbell | R+16.8 | 98% |
37 | Terry Austin | R+35.2 | >99% |
38 | Sam Rasoul | D+28.7 | >99% |
39 | Will Davis | R+39.8 | >99% |
40 | Joe McNamara | R+11.9 | 95% |
41 | Chris Obenshain | D+3.4 | 69% |
42 | Jason Ballard | R+24.6 | >99% |
43 | Will Morefield | R+66.1 | >99% |
44 | Israel O'Quinn | R+51.7 | >99% |
45 | Terry Kilgore | R+65.3 | >99% |
46 | OPEN | R+54.7 | >99% |
47 | Wren Williams | R+48.4 | >99% |
48 | Eric Phillips | R+27.0 | >99% |
49 | OPEN | R+9.0 | 90% |
50 | Tommy Wright | R+20.8 | >99% |
51 | Eric Zehr | R+47.6 | >99% |
52 | Wendell Walker | R+5.6 | 79% |
53 | Tim Griffin | R+36.3 | >99% |
54 | Katrina Callsen | - | Uncontested |
55 | Amy Laufer | - | Uncontested |
56 | Tom Garrett | R+21.4 | >99% |
57 | David Owen | D+8.5 | 89% |
58 | Rodney Willett | D+16.4 | 98% |
59 | Buddy Fowler | R+14.6 | 97% |
60 | Scott Wyatt | R+28.2 | >99% |
61 | Michael Webert | R+24.6 | >99% |
62 | OPEN | R+21.6 | >99% |
63 | Phillip Scott | R+18.9 | 99% |
64 | Paul Milde | R+1.2 | 57% |
65 | Joshua Cole | D+11.9 | 95% |
66 | Bobby Orrock | R+3.1 | 68% |
67 | Hillary Pugh Kent | R+21.2 | >99% |
68 | Keith Hodges | R+32.5 | >99% |
69 | Chad Green | R+1.8 | 61% |
70 | Shelly Simonds | D+22.1 | >99% |
71 | Amanda Batten | D+5.7 | 80% |
72 | Lee Ware | R+26.2 | >99% |
73 | Mark Earley Jr. | R+0.6 | 54% |
74 | Mike Cherry | R+11.5 | 94% |
75 | Carrie Coyner | D+2.6 | 65% |
76 | Debra Gardner | D+30.9 | >99% |
77 | Michael Jones | D+54.2 | >99% |
78 | Betsy Carr | D+56.8 | >99% |
79 | Rae Cousins | D+84.5 | >99% |
80 | Destiny LeVere Bolling | - | Uncontested |
81 | Delores McQuinn | - | Uncontested |
82 | Kim Taylor | D+6.2 | 81% |
83 | Otto Wachsmann | R+9.0 | 90% |
84 | Nadarius Clark | D+14.5 | 97% |
85 | Cia Price | - | Uncontested |
86 | A.C. Cordoza | D+0.8 | 54% |
87 | Jeion Ward | D+58.4 | >99% |
88 | Don Scott | - | Uncontested |
89 | OPEN | D+5.2 | 77% |
90 | Jay Leftwich | R+19.2 | 99% |
91 | Cliff Hayes | - | Uncontested |
92 | Bonita Anthony | D+59.3 | >99% |
93 | Jackie Glass | - | Uncontested |
94 | Phil Hernandez | D+17.2 | 99% |
95 | Alex Askew | - | Uncontested |
96 | Kelly Fowler | D+18.9 | 99% |
97 | Michael Feggans | D+11.3 | 94% |
98 | Barry Knight | R+16.4 | 98% |
99 | Anne Ferrell Tata | R+7.3 | 85% |
100 | Robert Bloxom Jr. | R+10.3 | 93% |
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