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Commentary: How the war in Iran could impact global economy, including Singapore

The economic fallout from the war in Iran will go beyond oil markets, says Coface chief APAC economist Bernard Aw.

Commentary: How the war in Iran could impact global economy, including Singapore

FILE PHOTO: 3D-printed oil barrels, an oil pump jack and a map showing the Strait of Hormuz and Iran appear in this illustration taken March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

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06 Mar 2026 06:00AM (Updated: 06 Mar 2026 08:05AM)
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SINGAPORE: The global economy that has weathered a year of trade tariffs and other shocks now faces a new test: an escalating United States-Israel conflict with Iran that threatens to disrupt global oil and natural gas supplies and unleash potentially far-reaching implications for the world.

Oil prices have already risen sharply, driven more by uncertainty than by confirmed supply losses. Much of this caution stems from the pivotal role of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway to the south of Iran that handles roughly 20 per cent of global oil consumption and a fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade.

While shipping through the crucial route has not stopped entirely, some vessels have slowed or paused their transit due to higher insurance costs and rising security risks. Marine insurers have also withdrawn war risk cover for ships in the region, leaving more than a hundred vessels, including oil and LNG tankers, stranded or forced to take longer alternative routes.

RIPPLES BEYOND ENERGY MARKETS

Higher oil and gas prices influence many parts of the world economy, from transportation and power generation, to commodity production and industrial activity. When energy markets become volatile, it forces companies to build in buffers such as by holding more stocks, reroute ships or delay shipments until risks subside – all of which add to costs that will eventually filter down to consumers.

Because oil is such a key input for most economies, rising prices tend to spill into inflation.

Studies have shown that geopolitical oil shocks are significant contributors to global inflation, and the current tensions renew that risk. A prolonged price increase of US$15 per barrel can push global inflation higher by nearly 0.5 percentage points, while slightly reducing growth momentum by 0.2 percentage points.

The impact varies across regions. The United States, now a large producer of oil and gas, is somewhat shielded from supply disruptions, though petrol prices and financial market sentiment still respond to global turbulence. The war in Iran also complicates the US Federal Reserve’s inflation fight and rate-cut trajectory for interest rates.

Europe remains more vulnerable, given its reliance on imported energy. Past experiences, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, have shown how the region's inflation reacted more sharply to energy shocks.

Asia is also highly exposed. 

Around 80 per cent of the crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asian buyers, including China, India, Japan and South Korea. Even temporary uncertainty can prompt these economies to adjust stockpiles, revise energy purchasing strategies and prepare for higher import costs. Already, the region’s financial markets are feeling the heat, with the panic selling across North Asia on Wednesday (Mar 4).

Specifically for China – which just announced a lower economic growth target for 2026, marking its first downgrade since 2023 – the end of discounted Iranian oil imports could add to the economic challenges from heightened trade tensions with the US and a protracted property downturn.

At the same time, shipping routes already strained by earlier disruptions through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, where transit volumes were 47 per cent below normal in January, have limited room to absorb additional detours. With fewer stable routes available, delays and higher freight rates become more likely – all of which are bad news for global trade.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR SINGAPORE

For Singapore, a trade-dependent economy that imports nearly all its energy, the implications are direct.

The first channel is energy costs. Household electricity tariffs, which are closely tied to international gas prices with a short time lag, are set to reverse recent declines in the upcoming quarters if global benchmarks remain elevated. Pump prices tend to respond even sooner, making transportation and logistics more expensive.

Rising fuel and shipping costs will eventually reach consumers. Groceries, meals, deliveries and travel all incorporate energy-related expenses at different stages of production and distribution. For households, this means the cost of living may edge up if energy prices remain high for an extended period.

Businesses face differing pressures. Energy-intensive sectors, such as petrochemicals, may see feedstock costs increase. Companies dependent on Middle Eastern or European supply chains could encounter longer transit times or higher freight charges.

Officials have warned of potential economic impact, with Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong noting earlier this week that Singapore will reassess its growth and inflation forecasts if necessary.

Headline inflation in Singapore averaged 0.9 per cent in 2025, and core inflation at 0.7 per cent. A sustained rise in oil and gas prices could push these figures higher, particularly in categories linked to utilities and transport. With that, the Monetary Authority of Singapore is expected to maintain its current exchange rate policy for now, with a stronger Singapore dollar helping to offset imported inflation if needed.

The extent of these ripple effects will depend on the duration of tensions and the degree to which shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains stable. If geopolitical conditions ease, energy markets may correct quickly. But if uncertainty persists, cost pressures from energy and freight will continue shaping global and regional economic performance.

Only one thing is clear: Global tensions have become a routine part of the economic landscape and countries will need to continue managing their effects with pragmatic adjustments rather than expecting stability to return quickly.

Bernard Aw is Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at Coface.

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Source: CNA/sk

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Women

When fathers don’t pay child maintenance – what women can do to protect their children

When her ex-husband stopped paying maintenance overnight, one mother was left scrambling to cover her son’s expenses while navigating Singapore’s family courts alone – a situation many divorced women face. From understanding your rights to enforcing court orders, this is what the law provides when maintenance payments stop.

When fathers don’t pay child maintenance – what women can do to protect their children

Non-payment of maintenance is a persistent problem among divorced couples, despite being enforceable by law. (Photo: iStock/LordHenriVoton)

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06 Mar 2026 07:26AM
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When Lisa (not her real name) separated from her husband, her biggest concern was keeping life stable for their four-year-old son. She didn’t expect to suddenly shoulder the full burden of their household bills. 

Her ex-husband stopped paying his share – not only for their car loan, but their son’s expenses and their Housing Development Board (HDB) flat mortgage, leaving her scrambling to meet payments.

During their five-year marriage, the tech executive and her husband split costs evenly, including their son’s kindergarten fees, and swimming and Chinese lessons. 

“I didn’t expect him to cut off our son like this,” the 35-year-old told CNA Women. She had to seek legal help to ensure he fulfilled his duty of care.

Lisa’s story isn’t uncommon. Non-payment of maintenance remains a persistent problem among divorced couples, despite being enforceable by law, according to statistics from the Family Justice Courts. There was an average of 2,700 maintenance enforcements applications reported in 2023. While some defaulters cite job loss or financial strain, others refuse payment out of resentment.

HOW CHILD AND SPOUSAL MAINTENANCE IS DECIDED

Both child and spousal maintenance are governed by the Women’s Charter, Singapore’s key family law statute, and determined based on the family’s circumstances – chiefly, the child’s needs and the parents’ financial capacity.

FOR THE CHILDREN

Child maintenance covers everyday and developmental expenses, from food and schooling to healthcare or therapy, if needed. Both parents must submit supporting documents such as receipts, payslips and income statements when determining an appropriate monthly amount.

Family lawyer Rajan Chettiar and managing director of Rajan Chettiar LLC, explained: “Both parents should agree on a list of expenses per child. If they can’t, the Family Justice Courts will step in to decide a reasonable amount, proportionate to each parent’s income. 

“For example, a husband earning two-thirds of the household income may be ordered to pay two-thirds of the child’s expenses.”

The Family Justice Courts will decide on a reasonable amount for child maintenance, proportionate to each parent’s income. (Photo: iStock/pondsaksit)

Maintenance obligations usually end when the child turns 21 but may continue if the child is in tertiary education or serving National Service (NS), where the NS allowance is taken into consideration to assess maintenance expenses.

Expenses tied to a child’s special needs or medical care are prioritised in the list of expenses but extravagances such as overseas holidays are typically excluded, even if it took place during the marriage. 

Chettiar said: “Standard of living is not a key factor considered in assessing maintenance.” 

FOR THE WIFE

Spousal maintenance isn’t automatically granted. It applies only when the wife can demonstrate need and the husband is capable of providing. 

This is assessed separately from asset division, says Mathea Lim, Of Counsel at Kith & Kin Law Corporation. “If the division of matrimonial assets already balances both parties financially, spousal maintenance may not be ordered.”

The courts consider reasonable expenses and earning potential. For example, if a wife’s income sufficiently covers her costs, maintenance might not be necessary. 

WHEN MAINTENANCE PAYMENTS STOP

According to a Ministry of Social and Family Development (MSF) article, over 97 per cent of maintenance enforcement cases in the Family Justice Courts are filed by women. Around 30 per cent involve child maintenance.

Maintenance obligations end when the child turns 21 but continue if they are in tertiary education or serving National Service. (Photo: iStock/recep-bg)

For single mothers already managing full-time work and caregiving, non-payment can feel like financial betrayal and adds anxiety to an already stressful time in their personal life. 

Lisa said: “I thought if it was such a burden to be physically and emotionally there for our son, the least my ex could do was to do his part financially. Who knew I would need to get court orders for things like childcare and school fees?”

She added that the stress caused her emotional distress and much resentment. “I felt like I was being dumped and dumped on.” 

Kith & Kin Law Corporation’s Lim said that filing for maintenance through iFAMS – the Integrated Family Application Management System – is the most practical option. The digital process tracks the arrears and builds a record of evidence without requiring a lawyer.

“Getting those payments reinstated restores normalcy,” Lim said.

Once filed, both parents attend mediation to resolve the matter. Unsettled cases proceed to a Court Mention – a procedural administrative hearing or a checkpoint, where the judge gives directions for next steps. 

If unresolved, a trial is then scheduled. The judge’s order then binds both parties to comply with payment directions.

While the process can take between three and six months, or more if financial disclosures are incomplete, the system is designed to ensure fairness and accountability.

ENFORCING MAINTENANCE ORDERS

If a husband ignores court orders, the wife can file a Summons for Enforcement.

The Family Justice Courts - comprising the Family Courts, Youth Courts and Family Division of the High Court - as seen on Nov 1, 2024. (File photo: CNA/Raydza Rahman)

The Family Justice Courts can then compel payment or impose penalties such as:

  • A Banker’s Guarantee for future maintenance. This is a court ordered sum, usually three months of payments, and handed over to the ex-wife within a month of the Court Order. Even with this in place, the ex-husband is legally required to pay maintenance directly to the ex-wife.
  • Attachment of Earnings: Maintenance is automatically deducted from his salary.
  • Community service or up to one month’s jail for wilful non-compliance.
  • Reporting arrears to the Credit Bureau or directing third parties who owe the husband money to pay the wife instead.

The courts distinguish between genuine inability and deliberate evasion. Tougher stances are taken against husbands who default when it comes to light that they have the means to pay the maintenance owing but have not done so, without good reason.

Said Chettiar: “This includes cases where the husband spends lavishly on themselves or their new families, or where it is clear that he has more than sufficient assets or financial liquidity to make payment.”

Lim added that if the husband switches to a lower-paying job for no reason, this would be taken against him as a deliberate act of lowering his income. Those with variable or self-employed income are still expected to disclose their resources honestly.

MAINTENANCE FOR MUSLIM FAMILIES

Nora, who declined to reveal her full name, faced similar struggles after separating from her husband. The mother of three found herself solely responsible for the household expenses.

“One day he was here, and then another, he decided to up and leave. It started small – since he wasn’t home, he didn’t pay for groceries,” said the 39-year-old office manager.

“Then it became school fees and other things like medical bills and insurance. If the bills are piling up, how do I manage three kids financially on my own?”

Muslim mothers may apply for child maintenance before, during or after Syariah Court divorce proceedings, if the child is below 21, or older but still studying or in National Service. (Photo: iStock/fadfebrian)

For Muslims, divorce matters fall under Syariah Court Singapore (SYC), although enforcement of maintenance lies with the Family Justice Courts.

Islamic law outlines three relevant forms of maintenance:

  • Nafkah – ongoing provision for spouse and children’s basic needs, including food, shelter and healthcare.
  • Nafkah iddah – financial support for the wife during the three-month waiting period (iddah) after divorce. The wife is also required not to re-marry during this time. 
  • Nafkah mutaah – a consolatory gift acknowledging the wife’s marital contributions. In Singapore, the SYC practice is to award a sum of money based on the number of days of marriage. 

Nafkah falls under the Family Justice Courts, ensuring parity with civil divorce procedures. Muslim mothers may apply for child maintenance before, during or after Syariah Court proceedings if the child is below 21 (or older but still studying or in NS).

The courts take a tougher stance against husbands who have the means to pay maintenance but have no good reason not to. (Photo: iStock/Sunan Wongsa-nga)

Enforcement against defaulting husbands follows the same process as non-Muslim cases handled at the Family Justice Courts – the Court examines whether the issue stems from inability or refusal to pay.

“Often, the question is whether income is being under-reported or expenses inflated,” said Ahmad Nizam Abbas, managing director of Crescent Law Chambers LLC. “The court ensures that fathers meet their responsibility within their means.”

Nora found that she did not need to run around both courts to obtain child maintenance owed to her. Her ex-husband was ordered to ensure their children were provided with monthly sums that supported their daily living expenses, education and medical care.

Once her children’s maintenance was secured, Nora could keep the family in their flat and work out a payment plan to buy over her ex-husband’s share.

“It was a load off my mind to have the maintenance sorted and to know my children have a roof over their heads. Otherwise, it’s stressful not just for me, but for them too.”

WHERE WOMEN SEEKING CHILD MAINTENANCE CAN GET HELP

For many women, the emotional and financial toll of pursuing maintenance can be daunting but resources in Singapore exist to help.

Women who cannot afford the legal costs of getting their exes to pay maintenance can tap on several resources for help. (Photo: iStock/Ivan Pantic)

“Legal costs can be an obstacle in enforcing the maintenance arrears, especially if the amount owed is similar or less than the legal costs of enforcement,” said Lim from Kith & Kin. “Women can navigate the Maintenance Enforcement Process (through iFam) on their own or if they can’t afford legal representation, they can seek the support of the Legal Aid Bureau.”

The Legal Aid Bureau offers subsidised legal representation for eligible women.

The Singapore Council of Women’s Organisations (SCWO) operates a Maintenance Support Central service for women who have endured financial abuse, such as non-payments and other forms of maintenance arrears. It offers guidance on applications, enforcement, and legal aid referrals plus emotional support from trained volunteers.

AWARE Singapore offers counselling through their Women’s Helpline or 1800-777-555, on weekdays, 10am to 6pm. It supports a wide range of issues, such as trauma, family violence and marital issues, and is an avenue to seek advice and support for maintenance arrears. 

Community organisations like the APKIM Centre for Social Services (ACOSS), and PPIS As-Salaam offer counselling and casework support for Muslim women navigating divorce challenges. 

Women can also access MSF’s Family Service Centres or Family Assist for help. 

For complex cases involving additional finances for legal fees, the Law Society’s Pro Bono Services can assist. Women can apply through the Community Justice Centre at the State Courts. 

Ultimately, enforcing child maintenance is about ensuring fairness for children to receive the stability they deserve, even though relationships end.

“This isn’t about me winning. It was about making sure my son gets what he deserves – a father’s responsibility to him and a fair shot at growing up,” said Lisa.

CNA Women is a section on CNA Lifestyle that seeks to inform, empower and inspire the modern woman. If you have women-related news, issues and ideas to share with us, email CNAWomen [at] mediacorp.com.sg.

Source: CNA/pc

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Singapore

Ban of caged lorries for worker transport 'small step in the right direction': Rights groups

Singapore will ban the use of caged lorries to transport workers from next year.

Ban of caged lorries for worker transport 'small step in the right direction': Rights groups

A caged lorry transporting a worker along Serangoon Road on Mar 5, 2026. (Photo: CNA/Justin Ong)

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06 Mar 2026 06:00AM (Updated: 06 Mar 2026 08:06AM)
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SINGAPORE: Migrant workers' rights groups say that banning the transport of workers on caged lorries from 2027 is a step in the right direction, but maintain that the long-term goal should be to ban the transport of workers on all lorries.

Senior Minister of State for Transport Sun Xueling announced in parliament on Wednesday (Mar 4) that Singapore will ban the use of caged lorries to transport workers from next year.

Companies that fail to comply with the ban will face penalties, with details to be announced ahead of the 2027 deadline.

Mr Ang Teck Chye, a lorry driver with more than 30 years of experience, has driven workers in caged lorries in the past and found it to be unsafe. 

He said the cages typically cannot be opened from inside – someone on the outside must unlatch them before workers can disembark. This has made him feel uneasy every time he transports workers on such lorries.

"My feeling is that they're like animals in a cage," he said. "I think this ban is good."

But rights groups say the ban does not go far enough. 

Dr Stephanie Chok, executive director of migrant worker rights group Humanitarian Organization for Migration Economics (HOME), described it as "a small step in the right direction in signalling that migrant workers deserve dignified transport". 

She cautioned that lorries themselves remain an unsafe mode of transport regardless of whether they are fitted with cages.

These caged lorries also constitute just 1 to 2 per cent of the 50,000 lorries in Singapore, she said.

"As such, this measure will affect only a small fraction of workers, who will still continue to be transported on the back of lorries and exposed to the same risks as before," she added. 

Mr Ethan Guo, executive director of migrant workers rights organisation Transient Workers Count Too (TWC2), said the "ultimate goal" should be to phase out goods vehicles entirely for worker transport in favour of passenger buses.

"There will be costs involved in doing the right thing, yes, but in return, the workers arrive at work in peace and consequently perform better in their jobs the rest of the day," he said.

"This isn't something that should be viewed through the lens of profit and loss, but the value of a human life."

TOTAL BAN NOT FEASIBLE: CONSTRUCTION FIRMS

Construction companies, while broadly welcoming the caged lorry ban, say extending it to all lorries is not practical.

Managing director of Nan Guan Construction Akbar Kader said requiring separate vehicles for workers and goods would significantly raise costs, strain the supply of bus drivers and put more vehicles on already-congested roads. 

He also raised a social concern: if workers cannot use lorries, they may turn to public transport instead.

"Workers will all go on the MRT, and then people will start complaining that they don't clean themselves up, and that will become another problem," he said.

Mr Howard How, director of quality, environmental, health and safety at Boustead Projects, said that while his firm does not use caged lorries, he thinks that more can be done to train lorry drivers who transport workers.

He noted that many of these drivers do not have specialised training and are "just workers given the additional responsibility to ferry workers".

"For workers who are given responsibility to drive, years of experience and understanding the highway code is important," he said.

He added that stiffer penalties could be meted out to lorry drivers who get into accidents while transporting workers. 

A caged lorry. (Photo: Ministry of Transport, Land Transport Authority)

CALLS FOR BROADER ACTION

National Trades Union Congress (NTUC) assistant secretary-general Melvin Yong said in a Facebook post on Wednesday that he has "long advocated for safer transport arrangements for workers who are currently transported at the back of lorries".

He called for alternatives such as buses or vehicles with proper seat belts.

"Today's announcement is a step in the right direction. But we should also outlaw the co-mingling of goods and workers at the back of lorries," he said.

Mr Yong added that, where feasible, goods and passengers should be transported separately to reduce the risk of injury during accidents or sudden braking.

Migrant worker charity group ItsRainingRaincoats said that it has been focused on the safe transport of migrant workers for "as long as we have existed".

"We welcome this ban as an important development and are grateful to see it, but it is not the end goal," its spokesperson said. "We hope very soon to see the day when migrant workers enjoy the same protections on Singapore's roads as all other road users in Singapore."

Mr Michael Lim, the director of the Migrant Workers' Centre (MWC), said workplace practices that create unnecessary time pressure, such as penalising drivers for late arrivals, should be reviewed, as they can "inadvertently increase the risk of unsafe driving behaviour". 

"While regulatory measures are critical, they must be complemented by strong enforcement, employer and worker education, and a robust safety culture," he said.

Source: CNA/jx(kg)

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