BREAKING: Fujairah is not just a port. It is the terminus of the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, the UAE’s only bypass around the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran just struck the escape route.
Every analyst modelling the Hormuz closure built their base case on 4.0 to 6.5 million barrels per day of bypass capacity through pipelines terminating outside the Strait. Fujairah was the linchpin of that assumption. Saudi Aramco’s East-West Petroline to Jeddah was the other.
On March 1, Iranian missiles hit Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s primary export terminal. On March 3, Iranian drones reached Fujairah Oil Industry Zone. Debris from an intercepted drone ignited a fire at the facility. Contained quickly, no casualties, operations resumed.
But the message to reinsurers is not about this fire. It is about the next one.
The bypass capacity that every energy desk on Wall Street uses to argue Hormuz disruption is manageable just became a target set, not a solution. Reinsurers now must model not only Hormuz transit risk but bypass terminal risk. The insurance withdrawal that shut down 80% of Hormuz transits can now extend to the infrastructure the market assumed would compensate.
$79 Brent assumes the bypass works. Iran just demonstrated that the bypass is within range.
Recalculate everything.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans
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Shanaka Anslem Perera 
@shanaka86
The first real signal of a war is not the missile.
It is the price of exit.
Tonight the ultra rich are paying up to £260,000 ($350,000) for a single private jet charter just to get out of the Gulf, because the normal map is gone.
Dubai, Doha, Abu Dhabi, the transit machine x.com/shanaka86/stat…
