Texas Senate Democratic Primary Ballot Test

If the DEM Primary for Texas Senate were being held today, who would voters vote for?

Populations in this average

LV

An adult identifed as registered and likely to vote in an upcoming election by a pollster.

RV

An adult identified as registered to vote by a pollster.

Adults

Anyone 18 years of age or older.

Independents

Self-identified Independent respondents

Democrats

Self-identified Democratic respondents

The average below is comprised of polling crosstabs for the noted subgroup. You can visit our methodology to learn more.

James Talarico

48.5%

Jasmine Crockett

45.6%

Nov 1, 2025Dec 1Jan 1, 2026Feb 1Mar 1 20253035404550556065%DROPPED OUT James Talarico48.5%DROPPED OUT Jasmine Crockett45.6%
Show Confidence Interval

Estimate

90% of polls fall in this range

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20 polls included in this average.

Field Dates Sample Pollster/Sponsor Result
Feb 26 – Mar 2 2,408 LV YouGov

James Talarico

53.0%

40.0%

Jasmine Crockett

James Talarico +13
Feb 26 – Mar 2 1,377 Democrats YouGov

James Talarico

48.0%

46.0%

Jasmine Crockett

James Talarico +2
Feb 26 – Mar 2 727 Independents YouGov

James Talarico

59.0%

34.0%

Jasmine Crockett

James Talarico +25
Feb 26 – 27 850 LV Emerson College / Nexstar

James Talarico

52.1%

46.5%

Jasmine Crockett

James Talarico +5.6
Feb 26 – 27 637 Democrats Emerson College / Nexstar

Jasmine Crockett

49.9%

49.3%

James Talarico

Jasmine Crockett +0.6
Feb 26 – 27 200 Independents Emerson College / Nexstar

James Talarico

61.6%

34.9%

Jasmine Crockett

James Talarico +26.7
Feb 25 599 LV Public Policy Polling / Lone Star Rising PAC

James Talarico

48.0%

42.0%

Jasmine Crockett

James Talarico +6
Feb 23 – 24 472 LV Blueprint Polling / Chism Strategies

James Talarico

51.9%

40.0%

Jasmine Crockett

James Talarico +11.9
Feb 13 – 22 488 LV University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research

Jasmine Crockett

55.0%

37.0%

James Talarico

Jasmine Crockett +18
Feb 13 – 22 548 RV University of Texas at Tyler Center for Opinion Research

Jasmine Crockett

56.0%

34.0%

James Talarico

Jasmine Crockett +22

= Internal poll

Internal polls from the same candidate are averaged together and weighted as no more than 1 poll in our average.

Read our methodology.