予測市場のオッズはニュースより速い？Polymarket CLIで変動監視を作った話

brew tap Polymarket/polymarket-cli https://github.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli
brew install polymarket

curl -sSL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli/main/install.sh | sh

# Rustのインストール（未インストールの場合）
curl --proto '=https' --tlsv1.2 -sSf https://sh.rustup.rs | sh
source $HOME/.cargo/env

# ソースからビルド
git clone https://github.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli.git
cd polymarket-cli
cargo install --path .

./polymarket: /lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/libc.so.6: version `GLIBC_2.38' not found

polymarket --version

polymarket 0.1.4

polymarket markets search "Bitcoin" --limit 5

╭───────────────────────────────────────────────────┬─────────────┬─────────┬───────────┬────────╮
│ Question                                          │ Price (Yes) │ Volume  │ Liquidity │ Status │
├───────────────────────────────────────────────────┼─────────────┼─────────┼───────────┼────────┤
│ Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February?          │ 0.05¢       │ $28.8M  │ $3.2M     │ Active │
│ Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February?          │ 0.05¢       │ $3.3M   │ $501.6K   │ Active │
│ Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February?          │ 0.05¢       │ $4.5M   │ $530.6K   │ Active │
│ Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in February?          │ 0.05¢       │ $3.5M   │ $404.9K   │ Active │
│ Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February?          │ 0.05¢       │ $7.3M   │ $285.5K   │ Active │
╰───────────────────────────────────────────────────┴─────────────┴─────────┴───────────┴────────╯

polymarket markets search "Bank of Japan" --limit 1 -o json

[
  {
    "id": "1227992",
    "question": "Nothing Ever Happens: Interest Rates",
    "conditionId": "0xa1c7afb51e4a...",
    "slug": "nothing-ever-happens-interest-rates",
    "endDate": "2026-03-20T00:00:00Z",
    "liquidity": "5864.88",
    "outcomes": "[\"Yes\",\"No\"]",
    "outcomePrices": "[\"0.925\",\"0.075\"]",
    "volume": "42958.01",
    "active": true
  }
]

# アクティブな市場を流動性順で取得
polymarket markets list --active --limit 10

polymarket clob book <TOKEN_ID>

# まずJSON出力でTOKEN_IDを確認
polymarket -o json markets search "Bitcoin" --limit 1 | jq '.[0].clobTokenIds'
# → ["12345...", "67890..."]  (1番目=Yes, 2番目=No)

# YesトークンのオーダーブックI
polymarket clob book 12345...

Market: 0xbb57ccf5...
Last Trade: 0.515

Bids:
╭───────┬───────────╮
│ Price │ Size      │
├───────┼───────────┤
│ 0.001 │ 373060.37 │
│ 0.01  │ 1036542   │
│ 0.02  │ 105157    │
│ 0.1   │ 128.84    │
│ 0.15  │ 905       │
╰───────┴───────────╯

# 現在の価格（ミッドポイント）
polymarket clob midpoint <TOKEN_ID>

# Bid-Askスプレッド
polymarket clob spread <TOKEN_ID>

# 直近の取引価格
polymarket clob last-trade <TOKEN_ID>

# 価格履歴（期間: 1m, 1h, 6h, 1d, 1w, max）
polymarket clob price-history <TOKEN_ID> --interval 1d --fidelity 7

# イベント単位で取得（1つのイベントに複数市場が紐づく）
polymarket events list --limit 5

# タグ一覧
polymarket tags list

# トップトレーダーのランキング
polymarket data leaderboard

const { execSync } = require("child_process");
const fs = require("fs");

const HISTORY_FILE = "odds_history.json";
const THRESHOLD = 5.0; // 5%以上の変動でアラート

const WATCH_QUERIES = ["Bitcoin", "Ethereum", "Fed rate", "OpenAI", "AI"];

function searchMarkets(query, limit = 3) {
  const stdout = execSync(
    `polymarket markets search "${query}" --limit ${limit} -o json`,
    { timeout: 15000, encoding: "utf-8" }
  );
  return JSON.parse(stdout);
}

function loadHistory() {
  try {
    return JSON.parse(fs.readFileSync(HISTORY_FILE, "utf-8"));
  } catch {
    return {};
  }
}

// メイン処理
const history = loadHistory();
const alerts = [];

for (const query of WATCH_QUERIES) {
  for (const m of searchMarkets(query)) {
    const mid = m.conditionId || "";
    const question = m.question || "";
    const prices = JSON.parse(m.outcomePrices || "[]");

    if (!prices.length) continue;
    const yesPct = parseFloat(prices[0]) * 100;

    // 前回との比較
    if (history[mid]) {
      const delta = yesPct - history[mid].yes_pct;
      if (Math.abs(delta) >= THRESHOLD) {
        const dir = delta > 0 ? "📈" : "📉";
        alerts.push(
          `${dir} ${question}\n` +
          `   ${history[mid].yes_pct.toFixed(1)}% → ${yesPct.toFixed(1)}% ` +
          `(${delta > 0 ? "+" : ""}${delta.toFixed(1)}%)`
        );
      }
    }

    history[mid] = { question, yes_pct: Math.round(yesPct * 10) / 10 };
  }
}

fs.writeFileSync(HISTORY_FILE, JSON.stringify(history, null, 2));

if (alerts.length) {
  console.log("🚨 オッズ急変動検知!\n");
  console.log(alerts.join("\n\n"));
} else {
  console.log("変動なし");
}