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2026 Iranian leadership crisis

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2026 Iranian leadership crisis
Part of the Middle Eastern crisis (2023–present), 2025–present Iran internal crisis, 2026 Iran–United States crisis and 2026 Israeli–United States strikes on Iran
Islamic Republic of Iran government structure
Date28 February 2026 – present (2026-02-28 – present)
(2 days)
CauseAssassination of Ali Khamenei
OutcomeOngoing

Since the beginning of the 2026 Israeli–United States strikes on Iran and the assassination of Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic of Iran has been in an unprecedented succession crisis due to the sudden death of over 40[a] upper echelon Iranian officials.[2][3][4] As per Article 111 of the Iranian constitution, an Interim Leadership Council was established during the interregnum until a new supreme leader is elected.[5][6] The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is insistent on the swift appointment of a permanent leader.[7]

Background

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February 2026 strikes in Iran

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Main article: 2026 Israeli–United States strikes on Iran

On 28 February 2026, Iran was struck by joint U.S. and Israeli air strikes with the goal of regime change against the Iranian government.[8][9] Ali Khamenei's official residence was destroyed in a decapitation strike,[10][11] killing Khamenei,[3][12] several senior officials (at three meetings),[13][14] and his daughter, daughter-in-law, grandchild, and son-in-law.[15][16]

Interim Leadership Council

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Main article: Interim Leadership Council

After the death of Khamenei, following Article 111 of the Islamic Republic constitution,[17] an Interim Leadership Council took over Khamenei's role, pending election of a new Supreme Leader. The Interim Leadership Council, as established early on 1 March 2026, then consisted of Alireza Arafi of the Guardian Council, Chief Justice of Iran Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i, Speaker of the Islamic Consultative Assembly Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and President of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian.[5][6] Later that day, however, the Foreign Minister of Iran Abbas Araghchi described a "group of three" by office, not including the Speaker of the Parliament. Furthermore, he assumed that the process would take "one or two days". [18]

It was reported by the BBC that Alireza Arafi was nominated as Interim Supreme Leader on 28 February before any successor was elected.[19] Ghalibaf and Larijani remained putative contenders, however,[20] not least because they (amongst others),[21] have long been seen as more or less likely prospects from the upper echelons of the Islamic Republic[22] by academics and analysts.[23][24][25]

Possible candidates

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Within the Iranian government

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Candidate Born Curriculum vitae Reference

Alireza Arafi 		1959
(age 66–67)
Meybod, Iran
[26]

Mojtaba Khamenei 		8 September 1969
(age 56)
Mashhad, Iran 		[27]

Hassan Khomeini 		23 July 1972
(age 53)
Qom, Iran
[28]

Ali Larijani 		3 June 1958
(age 67)
Najaf, Iraq
[29][30][31][32]

Sadiq Larijani 		12 March 1963
(age 62)
Najaf, Iraq 		[33]

Mahdi Mirbagheri 		1961
(age 64–65)
Qom, Iran 		[34][35][36][24]

In exile

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See also: 2026 Iranian diaspora protests § Following the Israeli–United States strikes on Iran
Reza Pahlavi

Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last shah of Iran, has been recognized as a central figure in the Iranian opposition movement,[37] being a vocal critic of the Grand Ayatollah and the Iranian government.[38] Some actors in the opposition have promoted him as the head of a provisional government should the Islamic Republic collapse.

See also

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Notes

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  1. ^ On 1 March, US President Donald Trump put the number at 48.[1]

References

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  1. ^ Fulton, Adam; Dunbar, Marina; Richards, Serena; Lowe, Yohannes; Vernon, Hayden; Ratcliffe, Rebecca; Dunbar, Marina; Fulton, Adam; Ratcliffe, Rebecca (2026-03-01). "US-Israel war on Iran live: Oil price soars by 13% in early trading; Trump says attack will continue until 'objectives are achieved'". the Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  2. ^ Yıldız, Güney. "Iran Succession Crisis After Khamenei Death". Forbes. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  3. ^ Jump up to: a b "Live Updates: U.S.-Israel strikes killed 40 Iranian leaders, including Khamenei. Ali Larijani as Iran's paramount security chief, appears to be the de facto overall leader as was prearranged by Khamenei several days prior his assassination. Sources say". www.cbsnews.com. 2026-02-28. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  4. ^ "Trump says Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is dead after US-Israeli strikes". BBC News. 2026-03-01. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  5. ^ Jump up to: a b "Heavy bombing rocks Tehran a day after Khamenei killed as conflict widens". Iran International. 1 March 2026. Wikidata Q138510174. Archived from the original on 1 March 2026.
  6. ^ Jump up to: a b "US, Israel attack Iran live: Khamenei killed, Tehran launches attacks". Al Jazeera English. 1 March 2026. Wikidata Q138510186. Archived from the original on 1 March 2026.
  7. ^ "Iran's Guards push to name next leader outside legal procedures". Iran International. 2026-02-28. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  8. ^ Fassihi, Farnaz; Bergman, Ronen; Kanno-Youngs, Zolan; Pérez-Peña, Richard (2026-02-28). "Iran Says Supreme Leader Khamenei Dead as U.S.-Israeli Attacks Continue: Live Updates". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  9. ^ Blake, Aaron (2026-02-28). "Analysis: Trump launches the regime-change effort in Iran that he pledged to avoid | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  10. ^ "Khamenei's compound destroyed by Israel". The Jerusalem Post. 2026-02-28. ISSN 0792-822X. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  11. ^ "Satellite image shows impact of US-Israel strike on Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei's palace". The Times of India. 2026-02-28. ISSN 0971-8257. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  12. ^ "Live updates: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is dead". NBC News. 2026-03-01. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  13. ^ Berlin, Dov Lieber in Tel Aviv, Alexander Ward in Washington and Laurence Norman in (March 1, 2026). "Why the U.S. and Israel Struck When They Did: A Chance to Kill Iran's Leaders". The Wall Street Journal.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  14. ^ "CIA helped pinpoint Khamenei gathering before Israeli strike – NYT". www.iranintl.com. March 1, 2026.
  15. ^ France-Presse, Agence (2026-03-01). "Deaths of Khamenei's family members reported by Iranian media". INQUIRER.net. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  16. ^ "Fars news reports Khamenei family killed in strikes". Middle East Eye. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  17. ^ Golkar, Saeid (Spring 2019), "Iran after Khamenei: Prospects for Political change", Middle East Policy, 26 (1): 75–88, doi:10.1111/mepo.12401, archived from the original on 2020-12-06, retrieved 2020-12-11
  18. ^ Staff, Al Jazeera. "Iran foreign minister suggests new supreme leader may be chosen within days". Al Jazeera.
  19. ^ "Why has the US attacked Iran? What we know about the attack and Tehran response". www.bbc.com. 2026-03-01. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  20. ^ Wan-Gi, Lee (March 1, 2026). "Khamenei's Death Sparks Succession Speculation; Larijani, Ghalibaf Emerge as Contenders". Seoul Economic Daily.
  21. ^ "Iran's Day After Khamenei: Succession or Survival? - Iran News".
  22. ^ METZ, By SUMAN NAISHADHAM and SAM. "A look at Iran's key political and religious figures".
  23. ^ "TRT World - Iran after Khamenei: A look at the men tipped to succeed the Supreme Leader". www.trtworld.com.
  24. ^ Jump up to: a b "Mirbagheri, Could This (Even More) Radical Cleric Be Iran's Next Supreme Leader?". October 23, 2024.
  25. ^ "Client Challenge". www.ft.com.
  26. ^ "Who might replace Iran's supreme leader? There's no clear successor". CNN. 28 February 2026. Retrieved 1 March 2026.
  27. ^ "If Israel kills Iran's Khamenei, could his son Mojtaba suceed him?". euronews. 2025-06-19. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  28. ^ "Who will be Iran's next Supreme Leader?". BBC News. 2014-10-21. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  29. ^ "Ali Khamenei appoints succesor in event of US assassination". The Jerusalem Post. 2026-02-22. ISSN 0792-822X. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  30. ^ Staff, ToI; Agencies (2026-02-22). "Khamenei, planning for possible assassination, appoints Larijani to key role – report". The Times of Israel. ISSN 0040-7909. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  31. ^ "Iran prepares succession plan amid war threat". News.az. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  32. ^ "MSN". www.msn.com. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  33. ^ "Analysis: Quest to find Iran's next Supreme Leader". BBC. 2018-12-05. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  34. ^ "فرهنگستان علوم اسلامی". www.foeac.ir (in Persian). Archived from the original on 2011-11-28. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  35. ^ "Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri: Jalili Supporter or Future Supreme Leader?". iranwire.com. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  36. ^ "Who could succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to lead Iran? | Explainer News". March 1, 2026.
  37. ^ Boxerman, Aaron (2026-01-13). "Deposed Shah's Son Seeks Center Stage Amid Iran Protests". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
  38. ^ "Reza Pahlavi emerges as central figure in Iran". The Jerusalem Post. 2026-01-20. ISSN 0792-822X. Retrieved 2026-03-01.
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