S’pore’s fertility rate sinks to new low of 0.87, citizen population could shrink by early 2040s
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Preliminary figures show only about 27,500 resident births in 2025, the lowest number in Singapore’s recorded history.
ST PHOTO: GIN TAY
SINGAPORE - Singapore’s resident total fertility rate (TFR) sank to a new low of 0.87 in 2025 - a significant fall from 0.97 in 2024 - deepening concerns over how the ultra-low birth rate and rapidly ageing population will reshape society and economy.
Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said on Feb 26 that with birth rates falling at an unprecedented pace, the growth of the citizen population has slowed over the past decade even with immigration.
Speaking at the debate on the budget for the Prime Minister’s Office, he said of the “existential” population challenge: “If no new measures are taken, our citizen population will start to shrink by the early part of the 2040s.”
He gave an illustration of what it means if the TFR, which refers to the average number of babies each woman would have during her reproductive years, remains at 0.87.
This would eventually translate to just 44 children and 19 grandchildren for every 100 residents today.
“Over time, it will be practically impossible to reverse the trend, as we will have fewer and fewer women who can bear children,” he said.
“Low birth rates and an ageing population will profoundly reshape our nation, our society and our economy in the years ahead.”
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Mr Gan said that marriage rates have fallen, and those who are married have fewer or no children.
All these factors led to only about 27,500 resident births in 2025, the lowest number in Singapore’s recorded history.
This is a drop of about 11 per cent from the 30,808 resident births in 2024. A resident birth refers to a child born to at least one parent who is a Singaporean or permanent resident.
And the slide downwards is quick, given that the TFR stood at 1.24 a decade ago in 2015. At 0.87, Singapore’s TFR is among the world’s lowest.
He noted that the citizen population, even with immigration, grew at just 0.7 per cent in 2025 and this has slowed over the past decade.
Meanwhile, he said Singapore’s population is ageing “faster than ever”.
One in five citizens was aged 65 and older in 2025, up from one in 8 in 2015.
The plunging births and rapidly ageing population have massive implications on multiple fronts, from weakening family support networks to slowing economic growth.
He said: “At a macro level, a declining economy means less vitality in our city and economy. Our economic growth, and correspondingly, our income growth will slow.
“And with fewer citizens, it will become increasingly difficult to meet our national security and defence needs. This raises the deeper question of what Singapore will be 50 or 100 years from now - will we remain vibrant, liveable and relevant? Will we exist?”
