'Three million' pro-government protesters in Tehran? Fact-checking Iranian state media
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Pro-government demonstrations were held across Iran on January 12. In the capital, Tehran, Iranian state media reported that “three million” protesters took to the streets. But our analysis suggests these figures are significantly inflated.
Authorities across Iran organised nationwide pro-government rallies on January 12 in response to the mass protests that erupted against the regime in December. Iranian state media reported that “three million” pro-regime demonstrators gathered in Tehran's Enghelab Square.
However, our findings, confirmed by two experts, indicate that this number is overstated. Using the open-source tool MapChecking, which estimates crowd sizes based on area and density, we found the actual number of protesters likely falls between 400,000 and 500,000. This suggests the turnout was six to seven times lower than the figures reported by official state media.
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The FRANCE 24 Observers team spoke to Anthony Catel, the founder of MapChecking. He said they originally developed the tool to "easily debunk spectacular figures and flag when the numbers simply stop making sense".
He noted, however, that the tool establishes an order of magnitude and is not meant to "differentiate between a crowd of 300,000 and 500,000".