Updated: November 03, 2025 at 05:05 AM
Mikie Sherrill is projected to get 52.3% of the vote and has a 90% chance of winning.
Jack M. Ciattarelli is projected to get 46.3% of the vote and has a 10% chance of winning.
Below shows the movement of the race for Governor over the election cycle.
90% conf. interval
Below are the publicly available polls in the the race.
Pollster | Date | DEM | REP | Margin |
AtlasIntel | Oct 30 | 50 | 49 | D+1 |
Suffolk | Oct 29 | 46 | 42 | D+4 |
SoCal Strategies | Oct 29 | 54 | 43 | D+11 |
Beacon/Shaw | Oct 28 | 52 | 43 | D+9 |
YouGov | Oct 28 | 54 | 44 | D+10 |
Emerson | Oct 28 | 50 | 48 | D+2 |
Quinnipiac | Oct 28 | 51 | 43 | D+8 |
Quantus Insights | Oct 27 | 49 | 46 | D+3 |
co/efficient | Oct 27 | 50 | 45 | D+5 |
GQR | Oct 20 | 50 | 42 | D+8 |
Concord Public Opinion Partners | Oct 18 | 47 | 42 | D+5 |
Rutgers-Eagleton | Oct 17 | 50 | 45 | D+5 |
KAConsulting LLC | Oct 16 | 49 | 42 | D+7 |
Fairleigh Dickinson | Oct 15 | 52 | 45 | D+7 |
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | Oct 15 | 47 | 42 | D+5 |
Neighborhood Research | Oct 09 | 44 | 44 | R+0 |
PPP | Oct 03 | 47 | 45 | D+2 |
John Zogby Strategies | Oct 02 | 50 | 42 | D+8 |
Global Strategy Group | Sep 25 | 48 | 45 | D+3 |
Valcour | Sep 24 | 49 | 43 | D+6 |
yes. every kid. | Sep 22 | 48 | 41 | D+7 |
National Research | Sep 18 | 47 | 44 | D+3 |
TIPP | Aug 28 | 48 | 37 | D+11 |
StimSight Research | Jul 24 | 48 | 42 | D+6 |
Cygnal | Jun 20 | 52 | 41 | D+11 |
SurveyUSA | May 30 | 49 | 40 | D+9 |
Below are the projections for each county/city in the state.
County/City | 2024 Pres | Proj. Margin |
Atlantic | R+3.0 | R+4.8 |
Bergen | D+3.4 | D+5.6 |
Burlington | D+16.6 | D+13.7 |
Camden | D+27.3 | D+27.0 |
Cape May | R+19.2 | R+21.1 |
Cumberland | R+3.8 | R+5.5 |
Essex | D+44.9 | D+47.4 |
Gloucester | R+2.8 | R+4.7 |
Hudson | D+27.9 | D+37.0 |
Hunterdon | R+6.6 | R+10.5 |
Mercer | D+33.8 | D+33.6 |
Middlesex | D+8.0 | D+11.1 |
Monmouth | R+11.3 | R+12.9 |
Morris | R+2.7 | R+4.8 |
Ocean | R+35.9 | R+35.0 |
Passaic | R+2.9 | D+1.5 |
Salem | R+19.1 | R+21.9 |
Somerset | D+13.8 | D+11.2 |
Sussex | R+24.9 | R+27.7 |
Union | D+24.1 | D+25.3 |
Warren | R+20.6 | R+23.2 |
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