Abigail Spanberger is projected to get 55.6% of the vote and has a 98% chance of winning.
Winsome Earle-Sears is projected to get 44.4% of the vote and has a 2% chance of winning.
Below shows the movement of the race for Governor over the election cycle.
90% conf. interval
Below are the publicly available polls in the the race.
Pollster | Date | DEM | REP | Margin |
Emerson | Oct 31 | 56 | 44 | D+11 |
Echelon Insights | Oct 31 | 55 | 43 | D+12 |
AtlasIntel | Oct 30 | 54 | 45 | D+9 |
SoCal Strategies | Oct 29 | 53 | 43 | D+10 |
YouGov | Oct 28 | 57 | 42 | D+15 |
Trafalgar Group/InsiderAdvantage | Oct 28 | 46 | 42 | D+4 |
StateNavigate | Oct 28 | 54 | 41 | D+13 |
Roanoke College | Oct 27 | 51 | 41 | D+10 |
Christopher Newport U. | Oct 23 | 50 | 43 | D+7 |
Suffolk | Oct 21 | 52 | 43 | D+9 |
Washington Post/George Mason University | Oct 20 | 54 | 42 | D+12 |
Quantus Insights | Oct 20 | 51 | 46 | D+5 |
Kaplan Strategies | Oct 18 | 51 | 41 | D+10 |
co/efficient | Oct 17 | 49 | 44 | D+5 |
Clarity | Oct 17 | 53 | 43 | D+10 |
Virginia Commonwealth U. | Oct 14 | 49 | 42 | D+7 |
Trafalgar Group | Oct 10 | 48 | 45 | D+3 |
PPP | Oct 08 | 52 | 43 | D+9 |
OnMessage Inc. | Sep 18 | 50 | 45 | D+5 |
Pulse Decision Science | Sep 05 | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
Wick | Jul 11 | 50 | 40 | D+10 |
American Directions | Jul 08 | 49 | 34 | D+15 |
Pantheon Insight/HarrisX | May 13 | 52 | 48 | D+4 |
Mason-Dixon | Dec 19 | 47 | 44 | D+3 |
Research America | Sep 09 | 39 | 39 | R+0 |
Below are the projections for each county/city in the state.
County/City | 2024 Pres | Proj. Margin |
Accomack County | R+13.3 | R+8.2 |
Albemarle County | D+33.9 | D+37.8 |
Alexandria City | D+57.1 | D+63.1 |
Alleghany County | R+48.0 | R+42.0 |
Amelia County | R+44.3 | R+37.8 |
Amherst County | R+36.4 | R+30.6 |
Appomattox County | R+50.8 | R+45.5 |
Arlington County | D+58.1 | D+64.2 |
Augusta County | R+47.3 | R+43.2 |
Bath County | R+53.7 | R+47.4 |
Bedford County | R+50.1 | R+45.5 |
Bland County | R+69.6 | R+64.5 |
Botetourt County | R+45.0 | R+40.7 |
Bristol City | R+39.6 | R+35.2 |
Brunswick County | D+8.5 | D+15.0 |
Buchanan County | R+70.5 | R+64.6 |
Buckingham County | R+23.5 | R+15.8 |
Buena Vista City | R+44.2 | R+37.8 |
Campbell County | R+48.4 | R+43.1 |
Caroline County | R+8.8 | R+3.1 |
Carroll County | R+63.1 | R+58.5 |
Charles City County | D+10.7 | D+18.0 |
Charlotte County | R+32.5 | R+25.9 |
Charlottesville City | D+68.3 | D+74.4 |
Chesapeake City | D+3.8 | D+8.6 |
Chesterfield County | D+8.9 | D+11.9 |
Clarke County | R+16.8 | R+11.8 |
Colonial Heights City | R+32.4 | R+29.2 |
Covington City | R+33.2 | R+25.6 |
Craig County | R+64.4 | R+58.9 |
Culpeper County | R+24.9 | R+19.3 |
Cumberland County | R+22.1 | R+15.6 |
Danville City | D+21.0 | D+24.9 |
Dickenson County | R+62.1 | R+55.9 |
Dinwiddie County | R+23.1 | R+16.6 |
Emporia City | D+31.0 | D+36.3 |
Essex County | R+7.7 | R+1.4 |
Fairfax City | D+33.1 | D+39.1 |
Fairfax County | D+34.7 | D+41.3 |
Falls Church City | D+61.6 | D+66.5 |
Fauquier County | R+21.5 | R+16.3 |
Floyd County | R+37.1 | R+31.6 |
Fluvanna County | R+6.3 | R+1.6 |
Franklin City | D+22.7 | D+27.6 |
Franklin County | R+45.1 | R+39.8 |
Frederick County | R+28.3 | R+24.1 |
Fredericksburg City | D+31.5 | D+36.4 |
Galax City | R+43.9 | R+38.3 |
Giles County | R+54.3 | R+48.9 |
Gloucester County | R+38.3 | R+33.2 |
Goochland County | R+18.5 | R+15.2 |
Grayson County | R+62.1 | R+57.3 |
Greene County | R+24.6 | R+20.6 |
Greensville County | D+9.3 | D+15.7 |
Halifax County | R+21.0 | R+15.0 |
Hampton City | D+39.8 | D+44.8 |
Hanover County | R+25.7 | R+22.1 |
Harrisonburg City | D+25.3 | D+31.8 |
Henrico County | D+28.7 | D+32.7 |
Henry County | R+32.8 | R+27.4 |
Highland County | R+44.2 | R+39.8 |
Hopewell City | D+13.7 | D+17.5 |
Isle of Wight County | R+19.7 | R+15.3 |
James City County | D+6.2 | D+9.5 |
King and Queen County | R+25.6 | R+19.7 |
King George County | R+24.9 | R+20.1 |
King William County | R+40.5 | R+35.4 |
Lancaster County | R+7.0 | R+2.4 |
Lee County | R+72.0 | R+66.5 |
Lexington City | D+26.4 | D+32.9 |
Loudoun County | D+16.2 | D+23.3 |
Louisa County | R+26.1 | R+20.9 |
Lunenburg County | R+22.8 | R+17.5 |
Lynchburg City | R+7.9 | R+0.1 |
Madison County | R+35.0 | R+29.8 |
Manassas City | D+14.8 | D+22.0 |
Manassas Park City | D+19.9 | D+28.9 |
Martinsville City | D+22.6 | D+27.8 |
Mathews County | R+39.2 | R+33.7 |
Mecklenburg County | R+20.8 | R+15.3 |
Middlesex County | R+27.3 | R+22.3 |
Montgomery County | D+3.5 | D+8.2 |
Nelson County | R+7.5 | R+2.3 |
New Kent County | R+31.7 | R+28.8 |
Newport News City | D+28.7 | D+34.1 |
Norfolk City | D+41.3 | D+47.0 |
Northampton County | D+6.1 | D+11.6 |
Northumberland County | R+21.1 | R+15.3 |
Norton City | R+43.5 | R+37.8 |
Nottoway County | R+22.3 | R+15.9 |
Orange County | R+24.6 | R+19.5 |
Page County | R+53.9 | R+48.4 |
Patrick County | R+60.3 | R+55.1 |
Petersburg City | D+72.5 | D+78.5 |
Pittsylvania County | R+43.1 | R+38.0 |
Poquoson City | R+45.6 | R+41.6 |
Portsmouth City | D+38.5 | D+43.5 |
Powhatan County | R+43.9 | R+40.1 |
Prince Edward County | R+2.6 | D+4.1 |
Prince George County | R+21.3 | R+16.0 |
Prince William County | D+17.9 | D+25.3 |
Pulaski County | R+44.5 | R+39.1 |
Radford City | D+0.5 | D+7.0 |
Rappahannock County | R+17.8 | R+12.0 |
Richmond City | D+65.9 | D+70.6 |
Richmond County | R+30.2 | R+24.8 |
Roanoke City | D+23.5 | D+28.4 |
Roanoke County | R+22.4 | R+18.2 |
Rockbridge County | R+33.6 | R+28.8 |
Rockingham County | R+36.8 | R+34.4 |
Russell County | R+67.4 | R+61.6 |
Salem City | R+19.2 | R+15.3 |
Scott County | R+70.3 | R+65.0 |
Shenandoah County | R+42.1 | R+37.5 |
Smyth County | R+60.2 | R+54.6 |
Southampton County | R+25.4 | R+18.8 |
Spotsylvania County | R+8.5 | R+4.3 |
Stafford County | D+0.8 | D+5.3 |
Staunton City | D+13.3 | D+16.3 |
Suffolk City | D+15.8 | D+20.1 |
Surry County | R+0.7 | D+7.0 |
Sussex County | D+4.4 | D+11.3 |
Tazewell County | R+68.7 | R+63.8 |
Virginia Beach City | D+2.6 | D+7.3 |
Warren County | R+37.4 | R+32.6 |
Washington County | R+53.1 | R+48.6 |
Waynesboro City | R+5.7 | R+1.5 |
Westmoreland County | R+14.2 | R+8.3 |
Williamsburg City | D+44.3 | D+46.8 |
Winchester City | D+9.7 | D+14.4 |
Wise County | R+63.2 | R+58.3 |
Wythe County | R+59.4 | R+54.2 |
York County | R+6.1 | R+2.5 |
* Governor Data from Oct. 4th through the 13th was removed on Oct. 14th due to a mixing of Virginia & New Jersey polling.
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