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Prop bet

Regulators noticed Polymarket and Kalshi rake in cash on sports bets. So now prediction markets are cosplaying as the future of news.

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STKS527_PREDICTION_MARKETS_CVIRGINIA
Pondering my orb.
| Image: Cath Virginia / The Verge, Getty Images

Prop bet

Regulators noticed Polymarket and Kalshi rake in cash on sports bets. So now prediction markets are cosplaying as the future of news.

Elizabeth Lopatto
is a reporter who writes about tech, money, and human behavior. She joined The Verge in 2014 as science editor. Previously, she was a reporter at Bloomberg.

Substack has updated its partnership with betting platform Polymarket, “introducing native tools that make it easier to share, discuss, and debate prediction market data directly on Substack.” Additionally, Polymarket will effectively pay “a cohort of creators,” including Matt Yglesias, to use its data though the newsletter platform’s pilot sponsorships program.

This is just the latest foray of prediction markets into media. Last week, Dow Jones agreed to incorporate Polymarket’s betting data into its “content,” including The Wall Street Journal. A month before that, CNN incorporated Kalshi’s betting odds. In December, CNBC agreed to infuse its programming with Kalshi data. Noted poker player Nate Silver, once a respected stats journalist, is now an advisor for Polymarket.

“If you get the news before it happens, that should be even more economically valuable.”

This looks like a concerted effort to confuse people about what news is and does. Here’s Robinhood’s CEO Vlad Tenev, one of the leading profiteers from America’s financial nihilism: “I like to think about prediction markets as the next generation of the news. We know the news is economically valuable. People pay for getting the newspaper; they pay indirectly for shows like this [Squawk on the Street on CNBC] through advertising, and so if you get the news before it happens, that should be even more economically valuable.”

Let’s stop for a moment and think about what news is, since the slippage in Tenev’s quote (“if you get the news before it happens”) highlights the problem with his line of thought. It kind of seems like people have recently become confused about the difference between information, journalism, and “content.”

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