Sales of electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to reach over 640,000 by 2030 across Australia, according to the last forecasts by leading energy analysts BloombergNEF (BNEF).
Driven by Australia’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) and supported by an increasing variety of models, Australia’s electric vehicle market is set to continue growing over the second half of the decade, though it will take a few years for the various factors to yield measurable improvement.
Sales of EVs – by which BNEF means both battery EVs (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) – exceeded approximately 158,000 in 2025, up significantly from the 114,000 sold in 2024.
BEVs dominated sales accounting for two-thirds of the total, but PHEVs saw the greatest year-on-year growth, up from 12,598 in 2023 to 23,392 in 2024 and 51,369 in 2025.
However, BNEF expects plug in hybrids to peak in 2026 – at just over 78,000 – by which time the uptake of EVs are expected to accelerate, growing by more than 100,000 a year to reach more than half a million in 2029 and then 640,961 in 2030.
The growth in BEV sales was attributed to the introduction of Australia’s NVES which came into effect in July, pushing the lion’s share of BEV sales into the last three quarters of the year as carmakers scrambled to incentivise older and more carbon-intensive stock before the new legislation came into effect.
However, BNEF also highlighted the “growing uncertainty” that PHEV and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) posed for the market if their efficiencies credited under the NVES are lower than anticipated. If so, the demand for BEVs could be squashed in favour of Australia’s increasing interest in hybrid vehicles.
BYD continued to close the gap on Tesla as Australia’s most popular EV manufacturer, with the BYD Sealion displacing the Tesla Model 3 as Australia’s second-most popular EV behind the Tesla Model Y.
Particularly important to the growing popularity of EVs in Australia, according to BNEF, is the release of several electric SUV models that cost less than $A40,000 – one of the country’s most popular car segment.
Joshua S. Hill is a Melbourne-based journalist who has been writing about climate change, clean technology, and electric vehicles for over 15 years. He has been reporting on electric vehicles and clean technologies for Renew Economy and The Driven since 2012. His preferred mode of transport is his feet.
