Sanae Takaichi Is Not Who You Think She Is

After Sanae Takaichi’s landmark election win, many who normally pay little attention to Japan are taking an interest, leading some to project their beliefs onto that soon-to-be-iconic blue suit.

Conservatives are delighting in their view that she is the latest fringe figure to attain power, a position they believe she won thanks to her unwavering opposition to immigration. Liberals, meanwhile, seem to think her victory marks some kind of rightward shift in the country, perhaps even a step toward fascism.

But much of what you read about Takaichi is divorced from reality. Her victory is a historic one, both in its scope, and in her position as the country’s first female leader. But she is far from the extremist that either side wants to paint her as.

Prominent conservatives have described her as having run “on a platform of heavily restricting foreign immigration and deporting anyone and everyone with expired visas.” Others believe that “Japan got literally the tiniest bit of migration” and “responded with the most right-wing electoral result in history.”

This view of the country — as one that’s had immigration forced upon it, and then reacted by electing an anti-foreigner firebrand — is simply wrong. Migration has indeed become a talking point in recent years. But far from Takaichi representing some rightward shift against foreigners, her stance on immigration is broadly in line with longstanding norms here.

Japan has long been hesitant on mass migration. Workers from overseas are expected to learn the language, obey the rules and, ideally, not stay forever in too large numbers. What’s different now is two things: a surge in foreigners, both tourists and workers, in the last decade, and the fact that Takaichi is willing to discuss it. Past leaders, including her mentor the late Shinzo Abe, preferred to avoid acknowledging the issue at all.

Takaichi’s policy makes no mention of reducing the foreign population. It’s instead focused on creating an orderly system to manage what will surely be an increase in migrant workers in coming years. While it calls for deporting over-stayers and dealing “appropriately” with criminals, it also outlines steps to help residents integrate into society, such as Japanese classes and tailored welfare systems.

Try telling that to those (including many foreign residents) who think her stance basically overlaps with Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. Some have described her as an “ultraconservative” sporting a “hardline agenda,” while online and in person I have even heard her described as a “fascist.”

On China, it has become de rigueur to read that she “provoked” Beijing or “started a diplomatic spat” with her comments on Taiwan. One noted academic even described her as “anti-China.” While it’s true that she is more hawkish than her predecessor Shigeru Ishiba, who I have described as “China curious,” skepticism about Beijing is hardly a position that is the preserve of the far right. Was Joe Biden, who made standing up to China one of his key positions, an “ultraconservative”?

For decades, it has been a frequent tactic to affix such labels to those who are strong on national security. But Takaichi’s foreign policy emphasizes cooperation with like-minded nations, and boosting alliances. That’s why her victory has been so welcomed by other Asian countries that are not falling for Beijing’s propaganda depicting her as a militarist. Far from the isolationism brewing in Washington, she is closer in spirit to European leaders with whom she shares an “unwavering” support for Ukraine. And it was notable that in an early press conference as prime minister she talked about how much she admired South Korean cosmetics and K-dramas (hardly a talking point of the Japanese far right).

If Takaichi does indeed pursue her goal of reforming the pacifist constitution, you can expect to see more of these revisionist, militarist labels. But much of the world is realizing that, as the prime minister put it, no one will help a country that refuses to help itself. Increased defense spending in Europe is not met with accusations of militarism, but with recognition that this is an overly late response to very real threats (a reminder that Russia is Japan’s neighbor, too). And she is not alone in this desire: Ishiba, largely regarded as left-leaning, also favored constitutional change, as did his predecessor, Fumio Kishida.

And while on social issues she certainly does tilt conservative, she does not represent some rightward shift — for the simple reason that the country has long been quite conservative. In talking to voters over the past few days, many explained her popularity as based not just on the hope that she can change things that need changing, but also that she’ll keep the parts of the country that need preserving.

So judge Takaichi for who she is. Watch what she says, and more importantly, what she actually does. Even a politician as popular as her is still constrained by the system she operates in. This administration is indeed a tectonic shift. But not always for the reasons many think.

More From Bloomberg Opinion:

• Everyone Wants a Strong Japan. Except China: Karishma Vaswani
• A Stunning Mandate Brings Risks, Rewards, Clarity: John Authers
• Four Fatal Liabilities in New US Approach to China: Hal Brands

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