SBS Dateline Australia did a documentary about the assassination in 2011, and in the documentary, an Australian investigator who was dispatched by the UN also thought it was Hezbollah, but never officially proved it (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kOfF3bRlH4). No one has ever been formally convicted of the crime, people only speculate that Hezbollah and Syria are behind the assassination. Based on a conversation I recently had, I have my doubts. I have described my conversation and theory below about why I think they are not responsible.

So I got into a conversation with someone on a different sub today, and we were talking about Middle Eastern issues. He told me he was in Paris 20 years ago, and he met two Lebanese men when he was at a sushi bar in Paris, and they talked for hours at the sushi bar. The two men told them that one of them worked for Lebanon's "secret service" and the other was in charge of "customs" in Lebanon. These two Lebanese men told him that "their cooperation (at the time) with Israel was closer than most other countries in the middle east." They also told him that they really liked American Secretary of State.

Now, I told this man that it was unusual that the head of Lebanon's "secret service" in the year 2000 would be closely cooperating with Israel, as the Syrian government was controlling the Lebanese government at the time, and Syria hated Israel, and 2000 was also the year that Hezbollah drove Israel out of South Lebanon. The man told me that the head of Lebanon's secret service "was very specific about their relationship with Israel." I know Michel Aoun was in exile at the time, so I showed him a picture of Michel Aoun in 2005, and asked if this was the man who he spoke to, and he said no. I then wondered if it could have been agents of the South Lebanon Army, but I did not really pursue this lead.

I instead googled the term "Lebanon Secret Service," and the first thing that came up was "Lebanese State Security." So, I googled "Lebanese State Security," and went to its formal website. I found who was the head of Lebanon's State Security from 1998-2005, and there was picture of this man on the website (it was a picture of him as an old man, like a picture taken recently). So I shared the photo of this man, and asked him if this was the man he spoke to at the sushi bar in Paris. He then responded to me by saying, "Do you know when that pic was taken? The name and face look familiar but I recall his hair being much darker." So, I found a picture of the head of Lebanese State Security in 1998, and shared it with him and asked him if this was the man, and he responded, "It was 20 years ago, but it sure looks like it could be the same person! Crazy!"

I did some more research on who was the head of Lebanese State Security from 1998 to 2005, and here is what I found. The pro-Syrian President of Lebanon at the time, Emile Lahoud, did not like him and wanted him replaced, and President Lahoud also did not like his brother either (https://books.google.com/books?id=oprt0ieUF3MC&pg=PT17&lpg=PT17&dq=Edouard+Mansour&source=bl&ots=zjw21h421P&sig=ACfU3U0ZYJb0QDaE-UEg612y9U57HTDNwQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj04Py1mIzqAhV_mHIEHa0JC3oQ6AEwDnoECAoQAQ#v=onepage&q=Edouard%20Mansour&f=false). Even though President Lahoud did not seem to like the head of Lebanese State Security, this man was a part of the pro-Syrian government, and was one of the people held by the Lebanese opposition at the time to be "[held] indirectly responsible for the assassination of... prime minister Rafik Hariri" (https://www.irishtimes.com/news/opposition-bides-its-time-before-joining-talks-1.419462).

So, based on all of the information I have compiled, these are the conclusions I have come to, and the theories I have developed. The head of Lebanese State Security at the time was working for Israel. I have come to this conclusion based on the conversation this man I spoke to had with him, and also from the passage in the book I have cited in the paragraph above with the "Google Books" link in which President Lahoud expresses that he did not like this man and wanted him gone. My question is, why would President Lahoud want him gone? Perhaps he did not trust him and was suspicious of him.

Today, it is thought that Rafik Hariri was assassinated by Hezbollah. I have strong doubts about this. In the article in Irish Times I have cited in one of the above paragraphs, numerous pro-Syrian figures in the Lebanese government were blamed for Hariri's assassination, and one of the was the head of "Lebanese State Security" (the article calls it "military intelligence," but the guy has the same name) that I have been writing about. My theory is that this man is responsible for the assassination of Rafik Hariri.

I suspect that he colluded with Israel to assassinate Hariri, and as a result of him colluding with Israel, all the pro-Syrian Lebanese figures were blamed because he was a part of them. Think about it. This guy had cooperated with Israel in past (as the Paris encounter proved), and Israel was desperate for Hezbollah to disarm its weapons. Israel wanted the world to think that Hezbollah was a threat to Lebanon internally and was a violent threat to Lebanon's democracy and Hezbollah's political opponents inside Lebanon. So, what better way than to assassinate Hariri, who was a political opponent of Hezbollah. This way, the world would think that Hezbollah does not respect the Lebanese people, and therefore the world would put an excessive amount of pressure on Hezbollah to disarm (as we have seen the past 15 years).

So, I think this head of state security in 2005 colluded with Israel to assassinate Hariri so Hezbollah and Syria would be framed, because this would help Israel on the international stage and hurt Hezbollah and Syria.

What do you think?

So, I’m Lebanese-American, most of my family lives in Lebanon. This story is creative bullshit. Hariri was murdered by Hezbollah with Syrian support. They took credit, Syria immediately started infiltrating other government offices and seizing control for pro-Assad forces. This is the opposite of what Israel wanted. The type of story you are telling is a narrative pushed by pro-Iranian pro-Hezbollah factions in Lebanon. There’s a great book called Black Wave that covers a lot of the lead up to this from 1979-2001

This is a lot of speculation and hearsay. First, I am not convinced two high ranking members of the Lebanese government would randomly start talking about their high ranking jobs with said government. I appreciate the dedication and thought you’ve personally put into this, I just don’t think random people on reddit talking about random people they met in Paris twenty years ago claiming to be government officials is very plausible.

I’m skeptical that these people told a random person in a sushi bar these foreign policy secrets.

I didn't even need to open this to know that Israel would pop up. It always does in stories like this.

Let me assure you, a secret service member of any country, and especially of countries like Lebanon, Israel, the PA and other close countries, will not disclose in a French sushi bar that they're secret service, for so many reasons. They will also not disclose state secrets. Why? Because some random could share it on reddit, for starters.

I'm an Israeli, and I lived in Paris. So do a lot of Lebanese. The stories they have are really colorful (Lebanese are supernice people actually, but when it comes to our shared politics, it's a mess). The middle east is full of stories like that, and Israel is always somehow involved. Not saying we're never involved. But the stories in the ME is pretty much the irl version of r/conspiracy when it comes to Israel (edit: what I mean by this is made up).

Again, not saying there's not a lot going on intelligence-wise on all ends in this whole region. But they won't discuss it with a redditor in a sushi bar.

I’m going to say this. How likely do you think it is that everyone involved in this is lying. I’m not saying you are but there’s a lot of areas that could be made up in this story.

Holy shit that’s wild

Post this on r/conspiracy

Yeah no, it was a Hez op.

This is really interesting! I'm not an expert on assassinations but I can see how it could be possible. r/geopolitics might be able to weigh in as well, you might try crossposting there.

as a lebanese dude it’s cool to see a post about lebanon here but this ain’t it chief, and at this point it doesn’t matter who killed him, lebanon and it’s economy has went to shit thanks to hezbollah and other parties :)