Fascinatingly, the LDP did so well in the constituency seats that it actually shortchanged itself out of 16 seats from the PR blocks. This is because so many candidates in some block lists who were dual-nominated for a constituency as well won the constituency, so the LDP list ran out of candidates to take the party's full mathematical allocation of seats for that block. That the LDP didn't come up with longer lists of candidates suggests that even it didn't hope to do as well as it actually did.
It's akin to a "fail-safe", if that candidate lost that district seat, the candidate would still have a chance to enter the lower house via the proportional seat. It can be used to protect important Diet Members from losing their seat and thus leaving the government without their preferred candidate for a ministerial post.
Usually as a protective measure. Voters get two votes - one is voting for a candidate in the constituency/electoral district and the other one is voting for parties.
Parties sometimes nominate a candidate for a particular constituency/electoral district and at the same time include the same candidate on the candidate list for proportional representation. This way if this candidate loses in the constituency, this candidate will still be elected via proportional representation.
Because Jiminto (or LDP) did so well that a lot of the 50/50s or even 30/70s went their way, candidates won in constituency therefore the names are taken out of proportional representation candidate list. And because they didn't nominate extra people, the open spots will be distributed to other parties.
Are the opposition parties really that bad in Japan ? I mean it's the SAME PARTY since like 70 years, and I have a hard time believing everything is better every year so that this party can enjoy so much popularity. They're not particularily authoritarian like Orban or Erdogan, so how ? Really weird, maybe Japan just likes to stay the same. Or the opposition parties are really bad.
The reason the LDP government maintains its longevity lies in its practice of reshuffling its leadership whenever popularity wanes, creating a pseudo-change of government and giving the public an abstract sense of renewal.
This is possible precisely because the LDP has been the ruling party for so long, and because the benefits of that position attract many lawmakers who transcend minor differences in stance. This is the exact opposite of the situation faced by left-wing parties, which tend to splinter precisely because they are perpetual opposition parties.
In this election too, the current administration hasn't particularly achieved anything noteworthy. Many citizens placed their hopes in the vague sense of renewal offered by the Takaichi leadership.
Yeah but why does it works in Japan ? Like, in the UK the Tories tried, and in France Macron reshuffled his prime minister like 5 times in the past 2 years, and this weakened both of them. Why in Japan this reshuffle tactic works ? Is it maybe because each reshuffle uses very different political outlooks ? I heard the new one is pretty right-wing while the past one was more centrist.
In my observation of Japanese politics, major opposition parties in Japan have tendencies to merge/split/rename/dissolve in every major election for whaever policy shift or political advantage they thought will help them beat LDP. Even Komeito, after coalition with LDP for two decades and split due to Takaichi rightward shift - merged with main opposition into that blue Centrist Reform party and simply got eradicated.
Due to that all merge/split/rename/dissolve by the oppositions, if you are not follow politics closely the only name you will ever recognised at the ballot is LDP - and perhaps Japanese Communist Party if that's your thing. Meanwhile LDP is big enough as institution that internal factions are pretty much multiparty system of its own. And those factions - within broad ideology framework - is diverse enough that the reshuffle looks like the actual change for the betterment in policy and management. Maybe it's much easier to give a chance to the brand new LDP than to pick any other opposition parties that just merge/split/rename/dissolve right before the election?
This. I'm Japanese and your observation is basically correct. Also, to add information, the politicians who run those oppositions are originally from DPJ, which took power and beat LDP in 2009 election but shortly after lost power in 2012 due to TERRIBLE policies（it's called "nightmare of DPJ regime"/悪夢の民主党政権 in Japan), so Japanese voters who remember the era when DPJ was in power are reluctant to vote for oppositions.
I remember reading about some other parties forming a coalition and it would cause LDP to lose a lot of seats. Did they forget to inform the voters or something?
That was one of many problems. Another big problem is that the two parties that merged were incompatible. One (CDP) was your bog standard center-left party. The other was the Komeito, which is basically the political wing of the Buddhist cult Soka Gakkai. Komeito voters are very loyal, but non-cult members are unlikely to support them, so merging together really limited their appeal.
One of them, Koneito is a well known cult group. It's been part of the coalition with the LDP since 1999 until they broke up in December. The other party the CDP is more of a traditional left wing party.
The problem with the coalition is that their policies are completely different. They clearly were approaching this like a math problem and adding the two voting blocks together. It was also a sudden marriage, and the coalition was still trying to form a cohesive set of policies.
This presented a once in a decade type of opportunity for the LDP and Takaichi called for an election immediately as the coalition was scrambling to join their offices and introduce each other.
Aversion for political discussion and dispute in the population at large (if you are not willing to have a potentially heated discussion about politic, trusting the powers that be is the easiest way out of trouble)
Lack of a coherent and well thought-out and DIFFERENT program from the opposition. If the opposition parties line is basically "We will do like the party in power but better..." well people tends to prefer the original over the copy really.
What is interesting is that while LDP gained 76% of the seats, they received only 36% of the PR vote. Also, considering voter turnout was only 56%, the percentage of Japanese people who actually voted for LDP was not large
According to this post on X, if Japan had a purely proportional representation system, LDP would have gained only 173 seats, which is only 54% of what they gained in this election
And they got 49% of the SMD vote. The PR vote is more of which party has the most support. The LDP isn't that popular right now, Takaichi's popularity and the main opposition's failure did some carrying for the LDP as a whole.
It's just as usual. According to the survay of Asahi shimbun, 72% of Japanese people were in favor of legalization of same-sex marriage as of 2023, but LDP won the election anyway. So, Japanese people are like, "I'm not against supporting LGBTQ+ rights, but it's not my top priority, so it doesn't affect my voting choice"
I checked, seat wise this is the best LDP Result ever.
Best post-war ever for any political party. It’s a historical ass-whooping.
Fascinatingly, the LDP did so well in the constituency seats that it actually shortchanged itself out of 16 seats from the PR blocks. This is because so many candidates in some block lists who were dual-nominated for a constituency as well won the constituency, so the LDP list ran out of candidates to take the party's full mathematical allocation of seats for that block. That the LDP didn't come up with longer lists of candidates suggests that even it didn't hope to do as well as it actually did.
Why would they dual nominate someone though. Is it some sort of symbolic gesture or they really could not find other candidate?
It's akin to a "fail-safe", if that candidate lost that district seat, the candidate would still have a chance to enter the lower house via the proportional seat. It can be used to protect important Diet Members from losing their seat and thus leaving the government without their preferred candidate for a ministerial post.
Usually as a protective measure. Voters get two votes - one is voting for a candidate in the constituency/electoral district and the other one is voting for parties.
Parties sometimes nominate a candidate for a particular constituency/electoral district and at the same time include the same candidate on the candidate list for proportional representation. This way if this candidate loses in the constituency, this candidate will still be elected via proportional representation.
Because Jiminto (or LDP) did so well that a lot of the 50/50s or even 30/70s went their way, candidates won in constituency therefore the names are taken out of proportional representation candidate list. And because they didn't nominate extra people, the open spots will be distributed to other parties.
Are the opposition parties really that bad in Japan ? I mean it's the SAME PARTY since like 70 years, and I have a hard time believing everything is better every year so that this party can enjoy so much popularity. They're not particularily authoritarian like Orban or Erdogan, so how ? Really weird, maybe Japan just likes to stay the same. Or the opposition parties are really bad.
The reason the LDP government maintains its longevity lies in its practice of reshuffling its leadership whenever popularity wanes, creating a pseudo-change of government and giving the public an abstract sense of renewal.
This is possible precisely because the LDP has been the ruling party for so long, and because the benefits of that position attract many lawmakers who transcend minor differences in stance. This is the exact opposite of the situation faced by left-wing parties, which tend to splinter precisely because they are perpetual opposition parties.
In this election too, the current administration hasn't particularly achieved anything noteworthy. Many citizens placed their hopes in the vague sense of renewal offered by the Takaichi leadership.
Yeah but why does it works in Japan ? Like, in the UK the Tories tried, and in France Macron reshuffled his prime minister like 5 times in the past 2 years, and this weakened both of them. Why in Japan this reshuffle tactic works ? Is it maybe because each reshuffle uses very different political outlooks ? I heard the new one is pretty right-wing while the past one was more centrist.
In my observation of Japanese politics, major opposition parties in Japan have tendencies to merge/split/rename/dissolve in every major election for whaever policy shift or political advantage they thought will help them beat LDP. Even Komeito, after coalition with LDP for two decades and split due to Takaichi rightward shift - merged with main opposition into that blue Centrist Reform party and simply got eradicated.
Due to that all merge/split/rename/dissolve by the oppositions, if you are not follow politics closely the only name you will ever recognised at the ballot is LDP - and perhaps Japanese Communist Party if that's your thing. Meanwhile LDP is big enough as institution that internal factions are pretty much multiparty system of its own. And those factions - within broad ideology framework - is diverse enough that the reshuffle looks like the actual change for the betterment in policy and management. Maybe it's much easier to give a chance to the brand new LDP than to pick any other opposition parties that just merge/split/rename/dissolve right before the election?
This. I'm Japanese and your observation is basically correct. Also, to add information, the politicians who run those oppositions are originally from DPJ, which took power and beat LDP in 2009 election but shortly after lost power in 2012 due to TERRIBLE policies（it's called "nightmare of DPJ regime"/悪夢の民主党政権 in Japan), so Japanese voters who remember the era when DPJ was in power are reluctant to vote for oppositions.
They're very divided for no reasons at all
One-party rule 😡😤
One-party rule, Japan 🤗🌸
Well Japan has been under this particular party's rule for basically it's whole postWW2 history.
Like about 63 out of the last 70 years.
"You're not allowed to vote for another party" =/= "there is only one party worth voting for"
Well, it's the outcome of a democratic vote so it's not strictly bad
More like
Shitting on a country for no reason 😡😤
Shitting on Japan for no reason 🤗🌸
I remember reading about some other parties forming a coalition and it would cause LDP to lose a lot of seats. Did they forget to inform the voters or something?
That was one of many problems. Another big problem is that the two parties that merged were incompatible. One (CDP) was your bog standard center-left party. The other was the Komeito, which is basically the political wing of the Buddhist cult Soka Gakkai. Komeito voters are very loyal, but non-cult members are unlikely to support them, so merging together really limited their appeal.
One of them, Koneito is a well known cult group. It's been part of the coalition with the LDP since 1999 until they broke up in December. The other party the CDP is more of a traditional left wing party.
The problem with the coalition is that their policies are completely different. They clearly were approaching this like a math problem and adding the two voting blocks together. It was also a sudden marriage, and the coalition was still trying to form a cohesive set of policies.
This presented a once in a decade type of opportunity for the LDP and Takaichi called for an election immediately as the coalition was scrambling to join their offices and introduce each other.
I wonder how much of that is due to :
Aversion for political discussion and dispute in the population at large (if you are not willing to have a potentially heated discussion about politic, trusting the powers that be is the easiest way out of trouble)
Lack of a coherent and well thought-out and DIFFERENT program from the opposition. If the opposition parties line is basically "We will do like the party in power but better..." well people tends to prefer the original over the copy really.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Japanese_general_election
The LDP will probably continue to dominate Japan for decades to come
This is what we called 中道崩殂.
If you're a well educated East Asian, you'll know.
How?
中道崩殂 means someone dies before achieving their goal.
Who died in this election?
中道改革連合 the biggest opposition party died in this election.
Looks like Sanae Takaichi is gonna be PM for a while
CRA is one of the stupidest political moves I've ever seen. (at least for the CDP, former komeito got a few new seats)
What is interesting is that while LDP gained 76% of the seats, they received only 36% of the PR vote. Also, considering voter turnout was only 56%, the percentage of Japanese people who actually voted for LDP was not large
According to this post on X, if Japan had a purely proportional representation system, LDP would have gained only 173 seats, which is only 54% of what they gained in this election
And they got 49% of the SMD vote. The PR vote is more of which party has the most support. The LDP isn't that popular right now, Takaichi's popularity and the main opposition's failure did some carrying for the LDP as a whole.
Turns out people like populism
What was the turnout?
56%
Does this represent a significant end of the road for the LGBTQ+ rights movement in Japan or is it just business as usual for them?
Will this election set them back for longer than a human lifespan (i.e., gay marriage will now take 70-80 years longer than before)?
It's just as usual. According to the survay of Asahi shimbun, 72% of Japanese people were in favor of legalization of same-sex marriage as of 2023, but LDP won the election anyway. So, Japanese people are like, "I'm not against supporting LGBTQ+ rights, but it's not my top priority, so it doesn't affect my voting choice"