Voting kicks off for Lower House election seen as referendum on Takaichi

Voters headed to the polls Sunday for a Lower House election largely framed as a referendum on the country’s leadership: a choice between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi or an opposition party leader.

Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party has kept the make-or-break line low, saying its coalition with the Japan Innovation Party is aiming for a simple majority in the 465-seat chamber. But the party is pursuing a victory that could propel the party to a majority of its own.

If the LDP manages to achieve a standalone majority of 233 seats, it will be a resounding win for Takaichi, allowing her to solidify her power base and vest her party with a greater authority in the Lower House.

Should the LDP-JIP coalition fail to at least reach that goal together, though, Takaichi is expected to step down as prime minister, signaling another round of political chaos — with potentially four Japanese prime ministers in three years.

Media polls prior to the election showed the LDP was on course to gain a majority on its own, while the opposition’s Centrist Reform Alliance — formed between the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan and Komeito just weeks ahead of the vote — was set to lose big.

Polls have remained favorable to the LDP despite a series of missteps by Takaichi, including remarks widely seen as talking up a weak yen, LDP’s wishy-washy stance on the consumption tax cut for food and off-the-script comments on the Japan-U.S. alliance.

Throughout the campaigning, she pledged to expand government spending in some key industries, restore Japan’s global economic competitiveness and tighten its immigration policy.

For the JIP, also known as Nippon Ishin no Kai, the election will serve as a litmus test for its ability to expand its power base outside of its Osaka stronghold. In the last two national elections, the party has deeply struggled to assert itself on the national scene.

The two ruling parties have not engaged in any kind of electoral cooperation in single-set districts, in stark contrast to the LDP’s past electoral agreements with Komeito, its long-time coalition partner.

In Osaka, the LDP and the JIP are competing in all of the city’s 19 single-seat districts.

The JIP is also facing a double local race in Osaka, where governor and party leader Hirofumi Yoshimura and mayor Hideyuki Yokoyama are asking voters for their support to merge Osaka’s wards and make it a metropolitan area. The two have framed the votes as necessary steps to make Osaka the nation’s backup capital — the JIP’s long-held policy goal.

On the opposition front, the CRA has fielded candidates in over 200 single-seat constituencies. But surveys have indicated the party might face a steep decline in its seats after the vote. The party’s explicit goal is to become the largest force in the Lower House.

The CRA has criticized Takaichi’s decision to call a snap election at a time when lawmakers have only served a third of their four-year-term. The party also pointed to recent market movements as a sign of anxiety toward her handling of the nation’s finances. Promises to cut the consumption tax on food products gave rise to turmoil in the bond markets.

Another focus of the election is how smaller, up-and-coming parties such as the Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito, who have benefited from a surge in popularity in recent elections, will perform. Despite some policy affinities with Takaichi and rumors of expanding the coalition to potentially include one or both of them, the parties have carried out an all-out campaign against Takaichi.

The campaign, in general, has been characterized by frigid temperatures and heavy snow in eastern and northern Japan, creating difficulties for candidates in those regions who want to campaign outside. It was the first Lower House election to be held in winter in 36 years.

In the election, 465 seats — comprising 289 single-seat districts and 176 proportional representation — are up for grabs. Media projections are expected to come soon after polls close at 8 p.m.