Key Points
- A substitute judge with professional ties to the leading right-wing candidate cast the deciding vote to block the left’s frontrunner from a crucial primary election
- The left — which made history in 2022 by winning the presidency for the first time ever — now risks running multiple candidates and splitting its own vote
- The right is doing the opposite: nine candidates are merging into one ticket through the largest primary Colombia has ever held
Colombia had never elected a left-wing president until 2022, when Gustavo Petro — a former guerrilla turned senator — won with 11.2 million votes. It was the kind of breakthrough that takes generations.
Now, with Petro constitutionally barred from running again, his movement needs a successor. They had one: Senator Iván Cepeda, a human rights activist leading polls at up to 31.9%.
Then came a ruling that changed everything. On February 4, Colombia‘s electoral council voted 6-4 to block Cepeda from a left-wing primary set for March 8.
The reason was procedural — he had already competed in a party primary in October, winning 1.5 million votes. But the controversy is not about procedure. It is about who broke the tie.
The deciding ballot came from Hollman Ibáñez, a substitute judge who previously worked at the law firm of Abelardo de la Espriella — the right’s strongest presidential candidate, polling at 26-28%.
Colombian left risks collapse in primaries
Ibáñez had even posted on social media, in since-deleted messages, that the primary should not happen at all. He then showed up to rule on exactly that question. Petro called it “a blow to democracy.” Cepeda filed criminal complaints. The left erupted.
What followed was predictable and damaging. Cepeda declared he would skip the primary and run directly in the May 31 first round.
But Roy Barreras, a former senate president polling below 1%, refused to cancel the primary, insisting the left needed to show up or forfeit to the right. His own allies called him a “vulture.”
The right, meanwhile, is playing the opposite game. Nine center-right candidates — including media figure Vicky Dávila and Uribe-aligned senator Paloma Valencia — will compete on March 8 in the Gran Consulta por Colombia.
Losers must back the winner. One unified ticket will emerge. The math is stark. With 62% of voters undecided and Petro’s approval at 35.7%, a fractured left could fail to place anyone in the June runoff.
That would end the progressive project after one term — in a country of 52 million navigating a fragile peace process, a cocaine crisis, and an increasingly tense relationship with Washington under Trump’s second presidency.
Colombia’s left broke a 200-year barrier in 2022. Whether it survives 2026 may depend on whether its leaders can stop fighting each other long enough to fight the election.
