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Microsoft's AI strategy is coming under increasing scrutiny and doubt. . | Credit: MSN Money, edit by Windows Central, Satya Nadella photograph via Getty Images
Microsoft's stock just achieved an unsettling milestone.
Microsoft can now claim to have experienced the second-largest single day stock decline in history, wiping an absurd $440 billion in market value from the tech giant. The drop is only behind that of NVIDIA from last year, who experienced a similarly deep shock when China's efficient DeepSeek AI model implied that you didn't need as much NVIDIA tech to have a capable chatbot as previously thought.
Microsoft's share price dropped a whopping 5.37% today, and is down almost 14% for the month of January 2026 so far. The stock continues its downward trajectory, which largely began this past summer.
Now, year to date, Microsoft's stock is down overall 2%, wiping out all of the AI-related gains it made over the past year.
Microsoft's stock rout revolves around a similar theme: it's all about artificial intelligence. Here's what's going on.
Microsoft's stock price took a beating yesterday. | Credit: MSN Money
Speaking yesterday to investors, Microsoft announced what, on paper, seemed like pretty solid results. Call of Duty is having an off-year, which drove Xbox down by 9% and Microsoft's entire computing segment down by 3%, reflecting just how big Call of Duty is when it comes to Microsoft's consumer segment. One off year can drag down the whole division — despite the fact it said Xbox PC and Xbox Cloud Gaming were seeing record usage.
Investors don't care too much about what Microsoft is doing with Windows and Xbox, though. So no, Call of Duty having an off year, or even Windows 11 seeing a noticeable decline in quality, isn't really impacting the share price. Xbox could be up 50% year-over-year, and it wouldn't have a meaningful impact on the stock. In fact, we saw this when Microsoft started factoring in Activision-Blizzard into Xbox's earnings.
The stock revolves entirely around Azure; Microsoft's biggest division by far. But, investors are growing increasingly weary about Satya Nadella's strategy surrounding Azure, and artificial intelligence in particular.
Azure grew by 39%, which sounds fantastic, but Wall Street apparently wanted more. Investors were also unimpressed by the future-facing statement of a further 37% growth. Cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion, atop a huge $81.3 billion annual revenue, up 17% year-over-year. Operating income was up 21% year-over-year, with a net of $38.5 billion. Microsoft 365 Copilot was up 160% year-over-year. Github Copilot was up 75% year-over-year. Shareholder returns were up 32% year-over-year too.
What more could investors possibly want?! You might ask. Well, the explanation doesn't make a lot of sense to me either, as a lowly pauper, but all of this still isn't enough.
Microsoft Azure data centers are second only to Amazon Web Services, targeting Fortune 500 enterprises with lucrative on-going subscription contracts. | Credit: Microsoft
The real reason the stock is down is because the growth doesn't reflect the capital expenditure Microsoft has committed to artificial intelligence and infrastructure surrounding it. Construction, in essence, and the risks therein.
Capex jumped to almost $40 billion for the quarter, up around 70% year-over-year depending on the analyst. Tons of this money has been poured into NVIDIA GPUs, which might have a decent shelf life in your gaming PC, but depreciate in value incredibly quickly as part of a huge data center cluster. Investors are basically concerned that Microsoft won't see any meaningful returns on this silicon investiture before everything needs to be upgraded or replaced.
Investors are also spooked by Microsoft's over-reliance on OpenAI, which has become a notoriously vast industrial-scale cash-burning machine. OpenAI is reportedly seeking tens of billions in further investments, looking to NVIDIA, Amazon, and Microsoft, to keep it from imploding.
Increasingly, investors are simply asking: where are the returns on all of this spend?
📉 So in summary:
No, Call of Duty having an off year didn't wipe out multiple-times its entire value in Microsoft stock. Obviously, hopefully.
Investors mainly care about Azure and AI, and are growing uneasy about its strategy.
Microsoft's AI and cloud revenue is up massively, but it's not up at the kind of pace investors would like given how much its spending on data center infrastructure.
Investors worry that Microsoft won't see real returns on its GPU investments before the chips need to be deprecated or replaced.
Data centers require permits, construction fees, electricity, cooling, on-going maintenance, and piles of custom silicon. Microsoft's capex is growing at an alarming rate, and could burden margins if profitability doesn't arrive more quickly.
Microsoft is aggressively betting on a future where AI becomes far far more useful than it is today. The pay off could be unlike anything we've ever seen, but investors are sceptical that the applications for Microsoft's AI tech will actually scale to that degree.
Investors worry that the firm's dependence on cash-burning OpenAI and ChatGPT is burdensome, too.
I'm not entirely sure what Microsoft is hoping to accomplish from its AI spend. It says that it has more demand for AI-related compute than it can supply today, to justify the capital expenditure and infrastructure growth, but are the ways AI is being used today represenative of something that can deliver serious revenue?
The vast majority of people using AI today are doing so for free. OpenAI is experimenting with advertisements and other paid tools in attempts to drive up its revenues. Microsoft Copilot is relatively poor in quality compared to competitors, and has increasingly become an example of how not to do AI.
Google's share price is outpacing Microsoft's because, on paper, it seems to have better economics. Google is showing discipline with its capital expenditure and infrastructural commitments, growing at smaller volumes but in what investors feel is more measured. Microsoft's strategy is far more aggressive, and seems to revolve around futuristic sci-fi ideas of "artificial general intelligence" — akin to something you might see in a movie, rather than the memeslop generators they are today.
Which strategy will win out in the end? It remains to be seen, but structurally, Google's ownership of the entire stack looks, on paper, like more effective and more efficient than Microsoft's "bet on OpenAI and Sam Altman" strategy, who increasingly looks like a bit like the snake oil salesman from the Fallout TV show.
Shares of Microsoft are down 11.7% in Thursday trading after the company reported fiscal second-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates but failed to satisfy investor expectations around Azure cloud growth and AI infrastructure spending.
Earnings Beat Fails to Impress
Microsoft posted non-GAAP EPS of $4.14 on revenue of $81.27 billion for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, topping consensus estimates of $3.92 and $80.28 billion respectively. Net income surged 60% year over year to $38.5 billion. Despite the quantitative beat, shares dropped 7% in after-hours trading Wednesday and extended losses through Thursday morning.
The selloff centers on Azure cloud growth, which came in at 39% year over year. While strong in absolute terms, the figure appears to have missed informal Wall Street expectations for continued acceleration. Investors also questioned the company's massive AI infrastructure spending, with capital expenditures hitting $37 billion in the quarter, up 65% year over year.
24/7 Wall St. ·24/7 Wall St.
Capex Concerns Weigh on Sentiment
Stifel cut its price target from $640 to $520 following the results, citing margin compression from AI infrastructure and talent costs. CFO Amy Hood attempted to reassure investors that GPU depreciation risks are mitigated by pre-contracted useful life agreements, but the message failed to offset concerns about return on investment.
Nearly half of Microsoft's $625 billion backlog is tied to AI model makers, including OpenAI, raising questions about whether Azure growth justifies the unprecedented spending. The company's Q2 capex of $37 billion marks the highest quarterly infrastructure investment in company history.
Peers Rally While Microsoft Stumbles
The move stands in sharp contrast to other megacap tech earnings this week. Meta jumped 9% after beating Q1 sales forecasts, while IBM surged 7.7% on strong software revenue and AI business growth exceeding $12.5 billion. Tesla edged up 2% despite its first annual revenue decline.
On Reddit's r/wallstreetbets, retail investors focused more on reports that Microsoft is in talks to invest less than $10 billion in OpenAI as part of a broader $100 billion funding round. The post drew 1,133 upvotes and 369 comments, with sentiment remaining bullish despite the earnings disappointment.
What to Watch
Investors will focus on whether the stock finds support near $430 or extends losses into the close. With 56 of 57 analysts maintaining buy ratings and a consensus price target of $616, the gap between Wall Street's long-term outlook and near-term trading action has widened sharply.
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Microsoft shares slumped Thursday, despite quarterly revenue and earnings that topped estimates.
Analysts said the tech giant's growing AI spending, weaker-than-expected cloud growth, and reliance on a few large customers raised concerns.
Microsoft (MSFT) shares took a big hit after the company reported earnings yesterday.
The shares dropped 10% Thursday to close at $433.50, leading losses on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq. Thursday's rout wiped nearly $360 billion off Microsoft's market capitalization, the second-largest loss on record, topped only by Nvidia's nearly $600 billion crash during last January's Deepseek panic. (Read Investopedia's full coverage of today's trading here.)
While Microsoft's quarterly revenue and earnings topped analysts' estimates, worries about the tech giant's cloud growth, coupled with its rising spending on AI and reliance on a few large customers, weighed on the shares.
Why This Matters to Investors
As Microsoft and many of its Big Tech peers have boosted spending on AI infrastructure, they've also faced a higher bar to impress investors with their growth.
Morgan Stanley analysts said that while growth from Microsoft's Azure cloud narrowly beat the company's guidance, it grew slower than many on Wall Street anticipated.
During the company's earnings call, CFO Amy Hood stressed that Microsoft’s cloud growth has been held back by capacity constraints, and that Microsoft is investing in building out its AI infrastructure to meet demand, but its higher-than-expected spending has added to concerns.
Microsoft also revealed that nearly half of its backlog was attributable to OpenAI. Jefferies analyst Brent Thill said on CNBC following the results that the detail underscored worries about concentration risks and OpenAI's ability to pay its hundreds of billions of dollars in commitments.
Still, Jefferies and Morgan Stanley said they said they see gains ahead for the shares. Though analysts' ratings are in flux, most have bullish ratings for Microsoft, with 14 of the 15 analysts tracked by Visible Alpha calling the stock a "buy," compared to one neutral rating. Their average price target around $598 would imply nearly 40% upside from Thursday's close.
Update—January 29, 2026: Stock prices in this article were updated after markets closed on Thursday.
The share price of Microsoft(NASDAQ: MSFT) cratered last week -- down 11% on Thursday, the largest one-day drop in the tech giant's stock since March 2020. Shares rebounded a tiny bit in the afternoon to end 10% down on the day. What's going on? And what should investors expect now?
Microsoft released results Thursday morning for its fiscal second quarter, ended Dec. 31, 2025. Based on the headline numbers, you would have expected a great reaction from Wall Street. Revenue of $81.3 billion in the quarter was up 17% from a year ago. Diluted earnings per share increased 60% to $5.16. Operating income grew 21% to $38.3 billion. Both sales and earnings figures exceeded consensus analyst expectations.
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Cloud revenue didn't match expectations
But investors looked past those numbers and focused narrowly on the company's spending and cloud sales growth. Capital expenditures rose 66% from a year earlier, to a massive $37.5 billion, higher than analyst estimates of $36.2 billion. Meanwhile, revenue from the company's Azure cloud computing unit, which reflects artificial intelligence (AI) demand, grew 38%.
Image source: Getty Images.
That cloud revenue figure sounds impressive, but it barely met analyst expectations. Worse for the stock price, the growth rate of cloud revenue slowed from the previous quarter. And the outlook for sales growth in the current quarter is 37% to 38%, with Wall Street wanting even higher growth.
Taken together, the growth in capital expenditures and the revenue from cloud computing painted a disappointing picture for investors. They expected a bigger payoff for all that investment. Thus, the plunge in the share price.
The reaction to Microsoft's results mirrors broader market expectations
It's pretty clear that investor expectations surrounding AI investments are sky-high right now, as evidenced by the massive rallies in shares of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks over the past several years.
These companies are pumping billions of dollars into AI data centers, research and development, and related infrastructure. And Wall Street, always a bit impatient, wants to see a payoff, in terms of revenue and profits, from that boom in capital expenditures sooner rather than later.
Also, the competition among the Magnificent Seven companies is fierce. That's why shares of Meta Platforms(NASDAQ: META) surged on Thursday, up more than 10% on the day. Meta also reported results on Thursday, but unlike Microsoft, the company raised its guidance on sales in the current quarter, to a range of $53.5 billion to $56.5 billion, which is higher than the $51.4 billion consensus estimate.
When it comes to earnings and their impact on share prices, it's all about expectations, of course. Meta beat them and Microsoft didn't. Because of the mania in the stock market surrounding AI, all AI-related stocks will have to continue to outperform expectations -- or see their share prices suffer.
Should you buy stock in Microsoft right now?
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Matthew Benjamin has positions in Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Meta Platforms and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
(Bloomberg) -- Microsoft Corp. shares got caught up in a selloff Thursday that wiped out $357 billion in value, second-largest for a single session in stock market history.
The software giant’s stock closed down 10%, its biggest plunge since March 2020, following Microsoft’s earnings after the bell Wednesday, which showed record spending on artificial intelligence as growth at its key cloud unit slowed.
The only bigger one-day valuation destruction was Nvidia Corp.’s $593 billion rout last year after the launch of DeepSeek’s low-cost AI model. Microsoft’s move is larger than the market capitalizations of more than 90% of S&P 500 Index members, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The chill was felt elsewhere as well, with peers including Alphabet Inc. and Nvidia each shedding more than $100 billion at one point on Thursday. Alphabet shares recovered, closing up 0.7%, while Amazon settled down 0.5%.
The selloff comes amid heightened skepticism from investors that the hundreds of billions of dollars Big Tech is spending on AI will eventually pay off. Microsoft’s results showed a 66% rise in capital expenditures in its most recent quarter to a record $37.5 billion, while growth at its closely tracked Azure cloud-computing unit slowed from the prior quarter.
“Since it is becoming even more evident that Microsoft is not going to garner a strong ROI from their massive AI investment, their shares need to be revalued back down to a level that is more consistent with its historic fair value,” said Matthew Maley, Chief Market Strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.
Microsoft’s selloff is among the worst in its history. Since its initial public offering in 1986, the stock has only seen a handful of days with bigger declines, including on Black Monday in 1987, during the dot-com bubble, and at the height of the Covid 19 fueled selloff in 2020.
Microsoft(NASDAQ: MSFT) is one of the world's most diversified technology companies, with a presence in software, cloud computing, gaming, social media, and more. It's leveraging its dominant position in some of those industries to participate in the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, and it's having incredible success despite some bumps in the road.
Microsoft reported its operating results for its fiscal 2026 second quarter (ended Dec. 31) on Jan. 28, which sent its stock tumbling to a one-day loss of over 10%. Despite strong results across the board, investors were concerned about some modest weakness in its AI software and cloud businesses.
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The stock is now down 22% from its record high, but it's still one of the best-performing investments in history, with a 580,650% gain since its initial public offering (IPO) in 1986. The recent sell-off might be a temporary blip on the way to further positive returns, so should investors take this opportunity to buy?
Image source: Getty Images.
Copilot concerns are emerging
AI chatbots have become extremely common, but Microsoft has a distinct advantage over the competition in this space because it can integrate its Copilot virtual assistant into its existing software that already serves billions of people collectively worldwide. Copilot is free to use in the Windows operating system, Bing search engine, and Edge internet browser, and it's also available as a paid add-on for the 365 productivity suite, which includes Word, Excel, Outlook, and more.
Companies around the world have bought more than 400 million Microsoft 365 licenses for their employees, and all of them are candidates for the Copilot add-on, making it a huge financial opportunity. However, as of the fiscal 2026 second quarter, businesses had purchased just 15 million Copilot licenses for Microsoft 365, and while that number doubled compared to the year-ago period, it represents a very modest penetration rate of just 3.7%. This is one of the numbers that sent the stock plunging after Jan. 28.
But 365 isn't Microsoft's only opportunity in this space. During the second quarter, paid Copilot subscriptions for individual software developers jumped by 77% compared to the previous quarter, just three months earlier. And Microsoft's Dragon Copilot for healthcare providers now helps over 100,000 medical professionals automate their administrative workflows. It documented 21 million patient encounters during the second quarter, tripling from the year-ago period.
Azure remained strong, but growth decelerated
Azure is Microsoft's cloud computing platform, where businesses can tap into hundreds of digital services to help them with simple requirements (like data storage) and more complex tasks (like software development). Azure has also become a major hub for AI developers because it's home to the Foundry platform, which offers all the tools they need to create AI software, including access to data center infrastructure and ready-made large language models (LLMs) from third parties like OpenAI.
Azure revenue grew by 39% year over year during the second quarter, which was above Wall Street's consensus forecast of 37.1%, but it was slower than the 40% growth the company delivered in the previous quarter, three months earlier. To be clear, 39% is a blistering growth rate, but investors might be worried about a potential loss of momentum.
Azure revenue could have grown even faster if not for a shortage of data center capacity. Microsoft's order backlog from customers waiting for more infrastructure to come online soared by 110% year over year to $625 billion.
That was great news at face value, but it's worth pointing out that 45% of the backlog is from OpenAI alone, which is a problem because the start-up certainly doesn't have the $281 billion in cash on hand to cover the OpenAI commitment. It will rely on a combination of external funding from investors and substantial revenue growth to come up with the money -- neither of which is a guarantee. This is another reason the stock declined sharply after Jan. 28.
Microsoft's stock trades at an attractive valuation now
Based on trailing-12-month earnings of $15.98 per share, its stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 26.5. Not only is that the company's cheapest valuation in three years, but it's also a steep discount to the P/E of the Nasdaq-100 index, which is currently 32.8. So you could argue Microsoft is extremely cheap relative to its big-tech peers.
Plus, Wall Street's consensus estimate (provided by Yahoo! Finance) suggests the company's earnings could grow to $19.06 per share during fiscal 2027 (which begins in July 2026), placing its stock at a forward P/E of just 22.4.
In summary, the recent 20% decline in Microsoft stock has given investors an opportunity to buy it at the cheapest level in years. While there have been some speed bumps for Copilot and Azure, the company continues to spend record amounts of money to build AI infrastructure, which speaks to its confidence in this technological revolution. As a result, I think long-term investors could do well by adding a few shares at the current price.
Should you buy stock in Microsoft right now?
Before you buy stock in Microsoft, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Microsoft wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $432,297!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,067,820!*
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Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Microsoft’s $440 billion wipeout, and investors angry about OpenAI’s debt, explained
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella (left) speaks with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman during the Microsoft Build conference in Seattle, May 19, 2025. ·Fortune·JASON REDMOND—AFP/Getty Images
Wall Street’s yearslong bet on AI is facing a severe test on Thursday, as investors might begin to view OpenAI—and generative AI in general—not as a catalyst for continuous growth, but as a source of systemic risk for Big Tech.
A sharp selloff in tech stocks on Thursday underscored investors’ exhaustion with the “spend now, profit later” model that has propelled the AI bull market for three years. Microsoft led the retreat, with its shares plummeting 12% by noon, erasing more than $440 billion in market value, a collapse it hasn’t seen since the pandemic. The Nasdaq was down almost 2% at time of writing.
The immediate catalyst, it seems, is an intensifying focus on capex, or capital expenditures. Microsoft revealed that its spending surged 66% to $37.5 billion in the latest quarter, even as growth in its Azure cloud business cooled slightly. Even more concerning to analysts, however, was a new disclosure that approximately 45% of the company’s $625 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO)—a key measure of future cloud contracts—is tied directly to OpenAI, the company revealed after reporting earnings Wednesday afternoon. (Microsoft is both a major investor in and a provider of cloud-computing services to OpenAI.)
“It’s the collapse of software and the ascent of hardware, and it is staggering,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer noted on X on Thursday, as the market punished companies that are spending billions on software infrastructure while failing to show immediate returns.
It’s an “ominous” statistic, Morning Brew cofounder Austin Rief wrote on X, especially combined with the fact that Meta is planning to devote most of their free cash flow to capex. Meta has evaded the selloff on a stronger-than-expected revenue forecast, showing a healthy 24% year-over-year revenue increase, driven by online ads. The fact that Wall Street is letting Meta get away with their also massive capex indicates the reason why investors are selling off: They don’t trust OpenAI to bring that revenue on their own without massive infusions of outside cash.
The sentiment shift is not limited to Redmond. Oracle has seen its shares halved from their September highs, erasing nearly $463 billion in value. Once a darling of the AI trade, Oracle has also struggled with investor confidence that the massive data centers it is building for OpenAI will get funded eventually. Additionally, the timeline for several projects has reportedly slipped to 2028, creating a gap between the company’s heavy debt-funded spending and the arrival of actual revenue.
OpenAI has made about $1.4 trillion in commitments to procure both the energy and compute it needs to fuel its operations. But its revenue barely crossed $20 billion in 2025.
Investors are increasingly critical of what they describe as “circular” deals involving the industry’s biggest players. On Wednesday evening, The Information reported that OpenAI is seeking a fresh $60 billion in funding from heavyweights like Nvidia and Amazon. However, market reaction suggests that more capital isn’t going to be a viable substitute for a business model anymore. “Maybe Oracle stock got way ahead of fundamentals, and now the market’s saying, ‘All right, show me, I want to see it,’” Eric Diton, president of the Wealth Alliance, toldYahoo Finance.
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares came under heavy pressure after its latest earnings release, with Microsoft closing down 10% on Thursday and wiping roughly $357 billion from its market value in a single session. The move marked the second-largest one-day valuation decline on record, trailing only last year's selloff in Nvidia following the launch of DeepSeek's lower-cost AI model. Investors reacted to results that underscored record investment in artificial intelligence at a time when growth at Microsoft's core Azure cloud business slowed from the prior quarter, raising questions about near-term returns on that spending.
The weakness spilled across the broader technology complex during the session. Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) each lost more than $100 billion in market value at one point before Alphabet recovered to finish up 0.7%, while Amazon ended the day down 0.5%. The reaction reflects growing skepticism among investors that the hundreds of billions of dollars being deployed by Big Tech into AI infrastructure will necessarily translate into proportionate earnings growth in the near term.
Microsoft's earnings showed capital expenditures rose 66% year over year to a record $37.5 billion, reinforcing concerns around return on investment as Azure growth moderated. Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co., said the results could prompt investors to reassess Microsoft's valuation relative to historical levels. The selloff ranks among the company's worst days since its 1986 IPO, with only a handful of larger declines during events such as Black Monday in 1987, the dot-com bust, and the height of the Covid-19-driven market selloff in 2020.
