Key Points
- Mexico’s president spent years warning the world about climate change—now she’s betting on one of the most controversial fossil fuel techniques
- The country buys so much American gas that a single decision in Washington could shut down half of Mexico’s electricity grid
- A $100 billion debt crisis is forcing choices that seemed unthinkable months ago
Here is a story about what happens when idealism meets reality. Claudia Sheinbaum is not your typical politician.
Before entering government, she earned a PhD studying energy emissions and contributed to United Nations climate reports—research that won scientists a Nobel Peace Prize.
When she campaigned for Mexico’s presidency, she made one thing clear: no fracking, ever. She won in a landslide. Within eight months, she broke that promise.
Understanding why requires grasping a vulnerability most outsiders never consider. Mexico generates 54% of its electricity using natural gas piped directly from Texas.
Mexico Gas Dependence Meets Fracking Dilemma
No country in modern history has depended this heavily on a single energy source from a single neighbor. When a winter storm froze Texas pipelines in 2021, parts of Mexico went dark.
Now, with trade tensions escalating under Trump, officials see this dependency as a dangerous trap. “If the U.S. turns off the tap, Mexico goes dark,” warned the head of Pemex, the state oil company.
The solution sits underground. Mexico holds the world‘s sixth-largest shale reserves—545 trillion cubic feet in formations stretching south from Texas. Tapping it requires fracking, the technique that revolutionized American energy.
But Pemex cannot act alone. The company carries $99 billion in debt, lost $30 billion last year, and owes suppliers $23 billion more. Production has hit 15-year lows. Foreign investment is now essential.
Environmental groups are furious, citing research linking fracking to water contamination, childhood leukemia, and earthquakes—particularly alarming in northern regions where 45% of aquifers are already overexploited.
Industry supporters counter that the alternative is worse: permanent dependence on an increasingly unpredictable neighbor wielding energy as leverage.
What makes this significant beyond Mexico is the question it poses globally: when the climate scientist becomes the politician, which priority wins?
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