The first ever three-way negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the US, got underway in Abu Dhabi on January 24 to try and bring the war in Ukraine to an end. A lot of progress has been made in the last two months, but the talks remain stuck on the thorny problem of territorial concessions.

“Ukrainian diplomatic team reports almost every hour from the UAE, where a conversation took place today involving the Ukrainian, American, and Russian delegations. They are discussing the parameters for ending the war,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on social media as the talks started.

Russia has insisted it will not end its war in Ukraine unless Kyiv makes significant territorial concessions, ahead of talks brokered by US officials.

“The Abu Dhabi security group meeting may focus on the compromise solution: mutual pull back of forces from a demilitarized zone in Donbas and whether Russia would maintain a heavily armed police/Rosgvardia presence, which Ukraine so far refused to accept. Other issues also block the deal,” former intelligence service analyst Vladimir Frolov said on social media.

Rosgvardia is Russia’s National Guard, a powerful internal security force created in 2016 and directly subordinate to the Russian president. It was formed by reorganising parts of the Interior Ministry’s internal troops, and its core role is domestic rather than military.

Rosgvardia’s main functions include maintaining public order, policing protests, protecting key state infrastructure, combating terrorism and extremism, and guarding strategic facilities such as nuclear sites. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has also played an expanded role in occupied territories, carrying out security operations and enforcing Russian control behind the front lines.

Bankova has been taking the position of “we stand where we stand” and is reluctant to give up control of land. At the end of last year Zelenskiy suggested that if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) withdraw from the last part of Donetsk it controls then Russia’s forces should withdraw by an equal distance. The idea of Russia moving in not only a police force to the evacuated region, but a paramilitary force like Rosgvardia, is going to be extremely difficult for Bankova to accept.

The Ukrainian delegation is led by Head of the Presidential Office Kyrylo Budanov and Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council Rustem Umerov. Russia sent a delegation consisting exclusively of military personnel, headed by Admiral Igor Kostyukov, Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and head of the GRU, the military foreign intelligence service - a career intelligence officer.

“By appointing Kostyukov an obvious counterpart to Budanov… rather than a diplomat like foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov or a businessman like Kirill Dmitriev, Putin is also signalling that as far as he is concerned, his demand for the remaining stretches of the Donetsk region is the main issue to discuss,” says political analysts Mark Galeotti in an article in the Spectator. He has a reputation for being ‘tough but sophisticated’. “He can see the world as it really is,” says Galeotti.

Meanwhile, a separate Russian delegation led by Kremlin special envoy Kirill Dmitriev is discussing business deals issues with the Americans.

The previous head of the Russian delegation, Vladimir Medinsky, a former culture minister that also led the failed 2020 Istanbul peace deal talks, has been retired.

Russia has insisted it will not end its war in Ukraine unless Kyiv makes significant territorial concessions. Specifically, at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow the day before, the Russian president said that land is the key issue and he was seeking an agreement in keeping with the framework deal thrashed out with US President Donald Trump at the Alaska summit on August 15.

That is taken to mean that Bankova give up complete control of the 15% of the Donetsk region in the Donbas that the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) does not control – including the heavy defence “Fortress Line” in the region. Bankova has consistently and repeatedly refused to contemplate any exclusion from Nato for Ukraine abandoning any territory that is not already occupied by Russia’s forces.

In addition to the territory issue, the talks will also include discussions on security guarantees for both sides, although few details of these talks have been released. According to bne IntelliNews sources, Russia is also seeking security guarantees for itself to ensure that future Western and Ukrainian administrations do not decide to re-equip the AFU and try to regain territory lost, if Bankova agrees to make concessions in the current talks.

Negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, and the US to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will continue next week in the UAE, Axios journalist Barak Ravid reported on the social media platform X.