Revealed: how secret talks took Liberals and Greens to brink of government

After a weekend marked by the spread of rumours, a hastily assembled shadow cabinet meeting and a firm denial, the prospect of the Canberra Liberals and ACT Greens turfing Andrew Barr's Labor government and making the Greens' Shane Rattenbury chief minister was on life support.

Once Mr Rattenbury told his Liberal counterpart, Mark Parton, the Greens' management committee would not consent to the arrangement, the deal - already downplayed publicly - was over. For now.

In the days since, Mr Parton has gone from saying any rumours about detailed discussions with the Greens were "unfounded" to conceding there had been some "extreme ideas" discussed "jokingly" between the two parties.

The Greens left themselves more room. The party moved to dispel the rumours at the weekend but acknowledged from the outset there had been a series of "policy discussions" with the Liberals over the summer break.

But both accounts from the Greens and Liberals downplayed the true extent and intent of the talks, which are understood to have tentatively continued at a smaller scale since the start of the week.

The Canberra Times, relying on extensive background interviews with multiple, credible political sources familiar with the discussions, can reveal the talks were prompted by the Greens approaching the Liberals, included detailed meetings between opposition and Greens portfolio spokespeople and split the shadow cabinet.

Chatter about the Greens and Liberals hatching a plan to install themselves together as a new government after removing Mr Barr for failing to address the ACT's fiscal emergency began to spread widely late last week.

Many people within the Labor party dismissed the suggestion, confident the party of protest born from the environmental movement would be unable to find enough common ground with what was once termed the most conservative branch of the Liberal Party anywhere in Australia.

The rumour held the Liberals and Greens would move against the government in the first Legislative Assembly sitting week of the year, due in the first week of February, and would vote to install the Greens leader, Mr Rattenbury, as chief minister, despite the Greens holding four seats while the Liberals hold nine.

The rumour, which The Canberra Times heard from multiple credible sources, also held Mr Rattenbury would hand over the chief ministership to the Liberals' Mr Parton after a set period, perhaps 12 or 18 months.

This approach to a power-sharing government had in fact been accepted by senior figures within the Greens and Liberal parliamentary parties, multiple sources familiar with the talks confirmed.

The persistence and fast spread of the rumour began to unnerve senior government figures, who started working into Friday evening to find out whether the Greens were really about to walk away from the supply and confidence agreement they had struck with Labor after the 2024 election.

On the evening of Friday, January 16, Mr Barr, who was still away from Canberra on a summer holiday, sent a text message to Mr Rattenbury. The pair's relationship dates back to their time as students at the Australian National University and has been credited with keeping the Labor-Greens alliance alive through its most fraught moments in previous terms.

Mr Rattenbury acknowledged the text message in an ABC radio interview on Tuesday, saying he received it while he was trying to have a dinner party.

"It never stops in politics. But, look, I was able to give him clarity. ... He said, I hear you're talking to the Libs. What's going on? And is there a no-confidence [motion]?" Mr Rattenbury said.

"And I was able to say, Well, yes, we are talking to Liberals. That should not surprise him. And, no, there's no no confidence agreement for the first sitting week of the year, which was the question he asked."

Mr Rattenbury said his reply gave Mr Barr clarity. But for the government, it raised alarm bells.

Figures within the government were right to be worried. In reality, Liberal and Greens portfolio spokespeople had a series of meetings, run to a formalised timetable over a period of about two weeks, to discuss power-sharing arrangements.

Portfolio talks were said to have accepted any future Liberal-Greens government would need to maintain the status quo on social issues, like abortion.

Ed Cocks, the Liberal treasury spokesman who stood to become treasurer if the deal had come off, had dialled into meetings from an overseas holiday.

The meetings had been prompted initially by the Greens taking to the Liberals the germ of an idea they could combine forces to oust Mr Barr's minority Labor government. Between them, the Liberals and Greens would command a one-seat majority in the 25-member Assembly.

The Greens' approach, led by Mr Rattenbury's office, was made sometime after Mr Parton was elected leader in mid-November following a damaging period in which Ms Castley suspended two backbench Liberal MLAs from the party after they crossed the floor.

Despite Mr Parton later declaring "any speculation about forming a government with the ACT Greens, including claims about approaches, meetings, policy discussions or negotiations over cabinet arrangements, are unfounded", Greens and Liberal MLAs did hold extensive meetings to discuss policies, negotiate over cabinet arrangements and consider approaches to power sharing.

The Liberals had a small team of senior staffers, described by multiple sources familiar with the discussions as a "transition team", considering public service appointments and other urgent matters a new government would be faced with. The Liberals were also talking with people linked to senior right-wing figures in the branch about the discussions, including campaigners associated with conservative lobby group Advance Australia.

"You know something was going on because there were Liberals in the Legislative Assembly building in January," a person familiar with the process said.

As rumours of the deal and the talks swirled, the Canberra Liberals convened a shadow cabinet meeting on Saturday afternoon. It is highly unusual for the shadow cabinet to meet at the weekend.

The meeting was the first time all Liberal MLAs had properly discussed as a group the proposition of taking over the ACT government in partnership with the Greens. The communication from Mr Parton's office about the talks and nature of the proposal had left some MLAs frustrated.

Leanne Castley, who cited Elizabeth Lee's talks with the Greens after the 2024 election as a reason Ms Lee's leadership was no longer tenable, voiced her objections to the plans.

Ms Castley, whose stint as Liberal leader was predicated on the party not forming government with the Greens, is understood to have told the meeting she would support a no-confidence motion in Mr Barr but would not support the push to hand the chief ministership to the Greens.

Ms Lee was involved in and supported the push to strike a deal with the Greens, despite her own efforts to form a government with the Greens costing her leadership. As part of the talks, Ms Lee had attended a meeting with Mr Rattenbury to discuss policy issues for the proposed power-sharing government in the Attorney-General's portfolio.

James Milligan was said to be reluctant to back the deal unless there was a spot for him in cabinet.

Ms Lee did not respond to a request for comment. Ms Castley, Mr Cocks and Mr Milligan referred questions to Mr Parton's office.

Detailed questions about the talks put to Mr Parton went unanswered, but the Opposition Leader said in a statement it was the Liberals' responsibility to engage with all parties.

"Our focus is on holding the government to account throughout the next term, particularly in areas where policy overlaps and where the government is clearly underperforming. The performance of current ministers is also being assessed," Mr Parton said.

"The role of the opposition is not just to criticise, but to offer a credible and better alternative government.

"We believe the ACT can be run better. Calling out government failures and presenting stronger outcomes go hand in hand. Canberra deserves higher standards of governance."

Just before 2pm on Saturday, January 17, an ACT Labor spokesman issued a statement unprompted to The Canberra Times addressing the rumours, saying the party had been advised by the Greens that there was no agreement to a no-confidence motion. "Labor has not been advised by the Greens, or the Liberals, of a no-confidence motion in the Chief Minister," the statement said.

Just after 2pm, the ACT Greens issued a statement which did not directly deny the party had been talking with the Liberals on the possibility of forming government, however the party was at pains to note there was no deal and the possibility of doing any kind of future deal was not even close.

"A new leader of the Liberals could mean new opportunities to get things done, and it's our duty to check. So the Greens have had some policy discussions with Mark Parton over the summer to see what we can work on together to make positive change for people in Canberra," the Greens' statement said.

The Canberra Times separately put questions to Mr Parton that afternoon and published the first version of a story quoting the Labor and Greens statements shortly after 4pm. Mr Parton's office responded moments later, saying the rumours were "unfounded".

"As the new Opposition Leader, I have been exploring options and opportunities for cross party collaboration to achieve better outcomes in the Assembly. ... But the Liberals' priority remains holding the government to account while offering a credible alternative to this tired old Labor administration," Mr Parton's statement, incorporated into the Times article by 4.15pm, said.

This and other reporting spooked the rank-and-file memberships of the Canberra Liberals and the Greens, which had not been briefed by their party leaders.

Some Labor members figured a Liberal-Green government would actually help their chance of winning another election in 2028 by resetting the clock on the party's reign, allowing a leadership transition away from the glare of power and encouraging public sentiment to turn against their opposition.

There was palpable delight in the party at the possibility of having corflutes made up to warn progressives a vote for the Greens was a vote for the Tories.

The Greens' management committee is understood to have met at the weekend about the proposal and decided it would be unable to support forming government with the Liberals. Greens convenor Susan Helyar said: "It is routine business for Greens MLAs to update our management committee on emerging concerns and opportunities and the political landscape in the Assembly."

While the Greens have grown increasingly frustrated with Labor since the 2024 election, particularly on budget repair and environment issues, the prospect of supporting conservative members of the Liberals into executive government would be too much for many of the party's members.

Some rank-and-file Greens members have said since last weekend they would cancel their memberships if the party formed a government with the Liberals and took down Labor.

Mr Rattenbury informed Mr Parton before noon on Monday the deal would not proceed because Mr Rattenbury could not count on the support of the Greens management committee. The Greens would also face a members revolt if the deal was not put to the rank-and-file in the manner of the decision to walk away from negotiations with Labor to re-enter cabinet after the 2024 election.

Both Mr Parton and Mr Rattenbury fronted up for radio interviews during the week.

The Liberal leader seemed to soften his position from declaring the rumours to be "unfounded", and conceded on Tuesday some "extreme ideas" had been discussed "almost jokingly" by the Canberra Liberals and ACT Greens.

"Ultimately I'm here to bring down the government, that's why I'm here. And, you know, I'll be finding whatever ways I can over the next three or four years to do that, but I'm not sure that it's going to stretch to the sort of arrangement that was alluded to," Mr Parton told ABC radio on Tuesday.

On Monday, Mr Rattenbury had appeared on ABC Radio Canberra's Drive program. Host James Findlay said: "OK, so there are discussions between you and the Libs, but not about creating your own coalition?"

Mr Rattenbury said: "No, I think probably things have got a little carried away there. But, you know, we've been very upfront about the fact that we're talking and I think we should be. The community would expect us to.

"I think it's our duty to see where we can find common ground. ... There's all sorts of issues floating around that are a real concern for the Greens. And on a bunch of these, the Liberals are also concerned."

The Canberra Times put detailed questions about the talks to Mr Rattenbury's office, which did not respond specifically to the questions.

An ACT Greens spokesperson in the Legislative Assembly issued a statement, saying "policy discussions" with the Liberals were "open ended and there was no agreement on any fixed outcome".

"We were simply canvassing whether there was any shared policy ground for us to work together and the range of possible pathways to do that. Nothing was agreed or confirmed," the spokesperson said.

"We do know that many Canberrans are frustrated with the Labor government. We share concerns that they seem complacent and out of touch."

The Greens spokesperson said the budget, including overspends in the Health and Education Directorates, along with the corruption investigation into the Campbell Primary expansion works contract and "the mismanagement of the public transport system" have cast serious doubts over the government.

"With all that in mind, it is our obligation to the Canberra community to consider if there are different and potentially better ways for their elected representatives to work for them. And we will always be open to considering any options that benefit our community and improve democracy," the spokesperson said.

Mr Rattenbury's careful language around the possibility of a no-confidence vote has reverberated around the offices of the Legislative Assembly. The Greens leader said there was no agreement to a no-confidence vote in the first sitting week of the year.

Many were quick to note it was telling he said nothing about the second week, the third week or beyond.

If the Liberals and Greens manage to find enough common ground, and a suitable trigger to take down Mr Barr (a corruption finding, say, or another horror budget deficit), they still have the only thing that matters for a takeover plot in politics: the numbers.

But do they risk destroying themselves if they use them?