Will ‘one-man model’ work for Vietnam as To Lam looks set to consolidate power?
The Communist Party’s general secretary is already behaving as if he ‘expects a mandate’ to add the presidency to his portfolio, experts say
But term and age limits on the leadership are expected to remain, they add, leaving Lam as just a “first among equals” when the conclave concludes on Sunday.
The congress – where the one-party state’s highest decisions are made – opened on Monday and will set key economic targets for the country as well as pick new leaders.
Leadership selection includes its most powerful position of general secretary, currently held by Lam, who was first named to the post in August 2024.
Addressing the nearly 1,600 delegates at the congress on Tuesday, Lam pledged an annual economic growth of more than 10 per cent for the remainder of the decade.
Pointing to external challenges such as security risks, fierce strategic competition and major disruptions in energy and food supply chains, Lam said Vietnam needed to cut red tape and expand global trade to protect its national interests.
“Infrastructure must be developed to adapt to climate change and ensure strong regional, inter-regional and global connectivity,” he added.
The former head of state security is said to be seeking to retain his role as party chief and take on the state presidency as he looks to consolidate control over the Communist Party in one of Asia’s fastest growing economies.
Nguyen Khac Giang, visiting fellow at the Singapore-based ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, said that over the past year, Lam had behaved like one “who expects a mandate” by travelling to over a dozen countries.
There will be enough pluralism at the top to keep him strong, but not unchecked
“[This has] considerably outscored the president, whose role is intended for such diplomatic responsibility, and the state-media choreography has followed suit,” he said, referring to incumbent Luong Cuong.
“But consolidation in Vietnam rarely means a clean sweep. [Lam] will probably pay for extra authority by accommodating other factions in the politburo and central committee. So there will be enough pluralism at the top to keep him strong, but not unchecked.”
‘Strong leverage’
Ha Hoang Hop, chairman of VietKnow, a Hanoi-based think tank focusing on political risks, said Lam’s chances of further power consolidation were high as he had deep roots in the security apparatus and anti‑corruption campaign. “[This] gives him strong leverage going into the congress.”
Though the composition of the politburo could vary, Lam’s allies dominated key portfolios in internal security, party organisation, ideology and economic management.
“Vietnam could move closer to a dominant‑leader model,” Hop said. But if balances were preserved, collective leadership norms would constrain Lam as “first among equals”.
While the revolutionary founder of modern Vietnam and its first president, Ho Chi Minh, briefly held unified top roles, the post-Ho era emphasised collective power.
However, periods of consolidation have occurred, notably under late leader Nguyen Phu Trong, who also served as both general secretary and president.
Carlyle Thayer, a Southeast Asia specialist and emeritus professor at the University of New South Wales in Canberra, said Lam’s power consolidation would streamline Vietnam’s approach to foreign affairs – especially since the party general secretary’s decisions had recently “usurped” the president’s.
A clearer hierarchy with a party chief who is also head of state could “reduce diplomatic ambiguity” and give Lam the “political runway” to push through reforms quickly, Giang said. But it risked a drift towards a “one-man model” that Vietnam had “historically struggled with”.
It remains to be seen whether Lam will use the consolidated power to strengthen institutions and bring about better coordination, or entrench “factional control and repression”, according to Hop. “The former could support high-quality growth and strategic agility; the latter would increase long-term vulnerability at home and abroad.”
Moderate consolidation could help Vietnam in the short term by speeding decisions on infrastructure and industrial policy and signalling political stability to investors, Hop said.
However, over-centralisation around a “security-centric leader” risks narrowing strategic debate at a time when Vietnam must strike a fine balance between the US and China while managing growing social and economic pressures.
“If policy becomes more risk-averse, punitive and inward-looking, it could stifle innovation, bureaucratic candour and reform, ultimately undermining resilience despite near‑term order,” Hop said.
3 killed in shooting in Australia, manhunt under way
Shooting comes on a National Day of Mourning as Australia remembers 15 people shot dead in Sydney at a Hanukkah celebration on December 14
A gunman was at large after a shooting in a town in Australia’s New South Wales state on Thursday left three people dead and another wounded, police said.
Emergency services were called to two locations at Lake Cargelligo, a town of around 1,500 people, after 4pm. Two couples, a man and woman, had been shot in each location within minutes, Police Assistant Commissioner Andy Holland said.
Both women and a man died. Another man was taken to hospital in serious but stable condition, he said.
Police knew the identity of a suspect, but did not know his relationship with the victims, who were all Lake Cargelligo locals, Holland said. The suspect’s name has not been released.
State police were working to locate the suspect and had sent resources from neighboring districts to the town, including heavily armed tactical police, Holland said. The town had been cordoned off to prevent the suspect’s escape.
Police urged the public to avoid the area and local residents to stay inside. The Commercial Hotel, a local pub, was closed by 6 p.m.
