We use essential cookies to make our site work. With your consent, we may also use non-essential cookies to improve user experience, personalize advertisements, and analyze website traffic. For these reasons, we may share your site usage data with our social media, advertising, and analytics partners. By clicking “Accept,” you agree to our website's cookie use as described in our Cookie Policy. You can change your cookie settings at any time by clicking “Preferences.”
  • D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG

Intelligence for the New World Economy

  • D.C.
  • BXL
  • Lagos
Semafor Logo
  • Riyadh
  • Beijing
  • SG
Sign In


View / Tehran should take Trump’s warning literally

Jason D. Greenblatt
Jason D. Greenblatt
Founder of Abraham Venture LLC
Jan 10, 2026, 2:33am GMT+9
GulfPolitics
Iranians gather while blocking a street during a protest in Kermanshah, Iran on January 8, 2026.
Kamran/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty
Title icon

Jason’s view

For decades, Tehran learned to treat American warnings as flexible. Lines could be tested, reinterpreted, or ignored. That approach does not work with US President Donald Trump. By now, it should be unmistakably clear to Iran’s leadership, and to other hostile regimes, that applying that logic today would be a potentially catastrophic miscalculation.

Consider Venezuela. Nicolás Maduro had long been accused of facilitating large-scale narcotics trafficking into the United States, with grave consequences for American security and public health. He assumed defiance would be met with rhetorical condemnation rather than real consequences. He was wrong. Trump did not issue symbolic warnings or negotiate against himself. He translated US security priorities into action, culminating in Maduro’s capture and the pursuit of criminal accountability on drug and weapons charges.

The lesson is simple and broadly applicable. When a regime’s conduct threatens American interests, whether through narcotics trafficking, weapons proliferation, terrorism, or the export of instability beyond its borders, Trump will act.

While Trump’s recent foreign-policy emphasis has focused on the Western Hemisphere, his guiding principle is the defense of American interests wherever they are threatened. Venezuela is a signal that erosion of American security and strategic interests will no longer be tolerated, regardless of where it originates.

AD

That logic applies to the Middle East. Trump’s December meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu removed any remaining ambiguity regarding the Iranian regime. If Tehran seeks to rebuild its nuclear infrastructure or reconstitute its missile capabilities, military action is once again on the table. Not as political theater, but as a real and enforceable consequence.

Trump has established a record of acting when he draws lines. He views the June conflict with Iran — short, focused, and devastating to its strategic military assets — as proof that decisive and limited force can restore balance rather than prolong instability. In his view, hesitation invites escalation. Clear consequences reduce it. Diplomacy is preferable, but diplomacy without credibility is meaningless.

As protests have spread across Iran, Trump warned that if Iranian security forces kill civilians, the United States will “hit them very hard.” It was a direct warning that internal repression, not just external aggression, may now carry tangible consequences.

AD

What separates Trump from many of his predecessors is not an appetite for war, but a refusal to tolerate endless gray zones. His worldview is not anti-Iranian or anti-Venezuelan. It is anti-destabilization. That applies equally to nuclear brinkmanship in the Middle East and narco-state behavior in the Western Hemisphere that corrodes security at home and abroad.

The Iranian regime should also understand that Trump is not only an unapologetic ally of Israel; he is equally committed to America’s key Arab partners, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and others. These nations are pursuing national visions rooted in stability, growth, and regional integration. Trump believes that ordinary people across countries, including Iranians, Venezuelans, and Cubans, share the same aspirations: economic opportunity, security for their families, and a future not defined by permanent crisis. He believes they deserve the opportunity to achieve them.

That is why Trump’s December warning to the Iranian regime, reinforced by recent actions in Venezuela and unfolding events inside Iran itself, should resonate powerfully in Tehran and other capitals that threaten US interests.

AD

Trump has signaled he would support, and if necessary, authorize, further strikes on Iran. Not to humiliate Tehran. Not to occupy it. But to stop a trajectory that risks a far larger and more destructive conflict.

At the same time, Trump has left the door open. He has said plainly that he prefers a deal. Iranian officials have spoken of negotiations “in a spirit of respect.” That spirit still exists. But as Maduro learned, it will not survive duplicity or delay designed to run out the clock.

With the Iranian regime facing major internal unrest, its leadership must make a choice. Negotiation over provocation. Rebuilding an economy over rebuilding centrifuges or sustaining criminal enterprises. Legitimacy over confrontation. The alternative: swift enforcement of clearly defined red lines. With Trump, the age of ambiguity is over.

Jason D. Greenblatt was the White House Middle East envoy in the first Trump administration.

He is the author of In the Path of Abraham: How Donald Trump Made Peace in the Middle East and founder of Abraham Venture LLC.

Title icon

Notable

  • Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the government wouldn’t “back down” to protests trying to “please” Trump, The New York Times reports.
  • Iranians on the streets have added a new chant to their anti-regime repertoire, calling for the return of Pahlavi, the son of the late Shah who was overthrown in 1979, the BBC reports.
AD

The World
at a Glance

Updated 1:06am GMT+9
World Map

EU nations back landmark Mercosur trade deal

Updated Jan 10, 2026, 4:26am GMT+9
People attend a demonstration called by the French farmers and the Confederation paysanne to protest against the EU-Mercosur free-trade deal between the European Union and the South American countries of Mercosur, in Paris, France, October 14, 2025.
Stephane Mahe/Reuters

The EU provisionally approved a trade deal with the South American Mercosur bloc to create the world’s largest free trade zone after 25 years of negotiations marked by deep divisions within the EU’s member states.

A “cars for cows” agreement favoring EU industrial goods and LatAm farm products, Mercosur’s champions argued the deal secures EU access to Brazil and Argentina’s critical minerals, reducing dependence on China and proving Europe can overcome disagreements to act decisively.

The agreement, set to be signed next week, overcomes intense opposition from European farmers, and demonstrates that Europe’s efforts to extend economic collaboration stand in stark contrast to the US’ approach of “coercion over cooperation,” The New York Times wrote.

US hiring slowed in December, capping off weakest year of job growth since COVID

Updated Jan 10, 2026, 12:31am GMT+9
A Chipotle restaurant advertises it is hiring in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Brian Snyder/Reuters

The US economy added 50,000 jobs in December, falling short of expectations and capping off the weakest year of job growth since the pandemic.

Hiring has been sluggish through 2025, which economists attributed to uncertainty around trade and obstinate inflation, as well as the concerns around AI’s impact on the labor market — factors that prompted the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three consecutive times late in the year.

According to Friday’s data released by the Labor Department, the unemployment rate, however, dipped to 4.4% in December after creeping higher for several months, bolstering expectations that the central bank would hold rates steady this month.

AD

Beijing reportedly set to approve imports of Nvidia chips

Updated Jan 9, 2026, 8:42pm GMT+9
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang holds a shield designed to look like a computer chip.
Steve Marcus/Reuters

Beijing is reportedly set to approve imports of Nvidia chips, in what would be a significant win for the US chip giant.

The US has long sought to curtail China’s access to cutting-edge semiconductors, but the Trump administration last year allowed Nvidia to sell its older-generation H200 AI chips. Beijing plans to allow limited imports, Bloomberg reported, though none for use in military or other sensitive sectors.

Nvidia expects huge demand: “We’ve fired up our supply chain,” its CEO said this week.

The decision is unlikely to blunt Chinese ambitions to grow their domestic chip sector, though, with the head of the country’s main semiconductor trade body warning that the industry must “remain highly vigilant” against dependence on the US.

Mining giants Glencore, Rio Tinto revive merger talks

Updated Jan 9, 2026, 8:41pm GMT+9
Mining vehicles operate at the blocks three and four of the Simandou mine, run by RioTinto.
Luc Gnago/File Photo/Reuters

Glencore and Rio Tinto revived merger talks that would create the world’s largest mining company, as global demand surges for metals and minerals key to the energy transition and AI infrastructure buildout.

Negotiations between the pair collapsed in 2024, but have taken on renewed momentum after a recent deal combining Anglo American and Canada’s Teck Resources, the Financial Times noted, putting pressure on other mining giants to scale up to better access crucial minerals.

Copper prices in particular have surged to record highs in recent weeks as analysts warn of a looming supply shortfall: Copper is a necessary component for the huge wave of electrification being planned across much of the world.

A chart showing Glencore and Rio Tinto’s stock performance.
AD

Sudan’s cultural relics destroyed after three years of war

Updated Jan 9, 2026, 8:41pm GMT+9
The Royal Cemeteries of Meroe Pyramids in Begrawiya, Sudan.
Mohamed Nureldin Abdallah/Reuters

Sudan’s civil war has devastated the country’s cultural heritage, effectively wiping out centuries of valuable relics.

The conflict has left around 10 million people displaced and an estimated 150,000 killed.

The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ two-year occupation of Khartoum has also seen 4,000 items looted from the Sudan National Museum, including mummies dating from 2,500 BC. Museums and ancient palaces in Darfur and El Geneina were destroyed or emptied.

Officials say truckloads of antiquities were driven from the capital in 2023 — RSF members filmed themselves opening crates of mummified remains — and estimate total losses at $110 million. “They tried to erase our history,” one official told Le Monde.

Saudi-UAE tensions escalate over Yemen rift

Updated Jan 9, 2026, 8:38pm GMT+9
 Police patrol Aden.
Fawaz Salman/File Photo/Reuters

Saudi Arabia accused the UAE of aiding a Yemeni separatist, ramping up tensions between the Gulf powers, which are on opposing sides of multiple conflicts.

The two are close allies of the US, yet are increasingly competing across technology, energy, and geopolitics: Riyadh and Abu Dhabi back rival factions in Sudan, and have taken differing positions over Israel’s surprise recognition of Somaliland.

Their coalition to repel Iran-backed fighters in Yemen is also fracturing as the UAE has allegedly increased support to a group that Saudi opposes. Online, Emirati and Saudi commentators are locked in a worsening war of words. The row, one Middle East expert warned, was “about more than just Yemen” and in fact pointed to a “regional transformation.”

Iran cuts off internet as protests intensify

Updated Jan 9, 2026, 8:40pm GMT+9
Protesters gather as vehicles burn in Iran.
Social Media/via Reuters

Iranian authorities cut off the internet and international calls, as protests gathered pace across the country.

A collapsing rial and high inflation have led to crippling cost-of-living increases, and the resulting protests, which started on Dec. 28, have taken on a political slant, with demonstrators chanting against the theocratic government and in favor of the exiled crown prince, who called for resistance against the leadership.

The demonstrations have seen at least 42 killed, although officials appear not to have cracked down severely yet. The country’s long-term challenges are also severe: Iran has suffered brutal droughts, with reservoirs depleted to the extent that the president has said Tehran may have to be evacuated. The country’s longest river is largely dried up, and wildfires are consuming its ancient forests.

A chart showing Iran’s inflation rate.

Trump says ‘own morality’ only limit to power

Updated Jan 9, 2026, 8:36pm GMT+9
Donald Trump.
Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo/Reuters

US President Donald Trump said the only limits on his global powers were “my own morality, my own mind” rather than international law.

Soon after ordering the ouster of Venezuela’s president, and later withdrawing the US from dozens of international organizations, Trump told The New York Times that he was free to use military or economic power as he chose, limited only by strength rather than treaties or conventions.

He suggested that previous presidents were too cautious to make use of Washington’s dominant position, and that the post-World War II order of international bodies imposed unnecessary restrictions on Washington. Even NATO membership, he implied, was not vital, saying that obtaining Greenland or remaining in the alliance was “a choice.”

Trump rallies oil firms for Venezuela investments

Updated Jan 9, 2026, 8:35pm GMT+9
Crude oil drips from a valve at an oil well operated by Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA.
Carlos Garcia Rawlins/File Photo/Reuters

US President Donald Trump will today aim to convince top energy executives to increase investment in Venezuela’s oil industry as he fights off opposition in Washington over his use of the military in the country.

The White House talks with representatives of companies, including Chevron and Exxon Mobil, are part of wide-ranging US efforts to expand control over crude production in Venezuela. It is a tough sell: Venezuela has the world’s largest stated oil reserves, but increasing output is rife with challenges.

Trump credited Caracas’ cooperation over oil for warding off further attacks, but he also faces growing domestic criticism, including from Republicans: Five GOP senators sided with Democrats to advance a resolution curbing Trump’s use of the military there.

A chart showing Venezuela’s oil production and exports to the US.

US mulls paying Greenlanders $100,000 each for takeover

Updated Jan 9, 2026, 8:29pm GMT+9
Flag of Greenland.
Marko Djurica/File Photo/Reuters

The US is reportedly considering paying Greenlanders up to $100,000 each as part of efforts to annex the Danish territory.

Washington has stepped up its rhetoric about taking over the island, potentially by force: President Donald Trump has said that Washington “needs” Greenland for its mineral wealth and strategic importance, and the US federal government may invest in mining operations there.

European nations have rejected any takeover, but the US secretary of state will meet Danish officials next week, and Trump “has shown no sign of changing his mind,” Politico reported. Discussions of lump-sum payments to Greenlanders are not new, according to Reuters, but they have become more serious in recent days.

A chart showing the world’s biggest rare earth reserves.

Chinese AI unicorns go public

Updated Jan 9, 2026, 7:35am GMT+9
Executives from Zhipu AI, Shanghai Iluvatar CoreX and Shenzhen Edge Medical attend a listing ceremony in Hong Kong
Kane Wu/Reuters

The public trading debuts of two Chinese AI unicorns this week reflect the hype surrounding the sector as Beijing looks to rival the US’ leading tech startups.

Zhipu became the first of China’s “AI tigers” to go public Thursday, and MiniMax starts trading in Hong Kong Friday. Both run much slimmer operations than their Silicon Valley competitors: Zhipu’s chairman expects US peers to be forced into a price war as Chinese AI companies expand globally at lower price points. The company — seen as a challenger to OpenAI — cares less about profitability than proliferation, Bloomberg wrote.

2026 is expected to be a big year for Hong Kong tech IPOs as Chinese authorities fast-track AI and chip listings.

US trade gap shrinks to lowest level since 2009

Updated Jan 9, 2026, 7:31am GMT+9
A cargo ship full of shipping containers is seen at the port of Oakland
Carlos Barria/File Photo/Reuters

The US trade deficit dropped in October to its lowest level since 2009, new data showed, as imports fell six months after US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.

Trump made reducing the deficit central to his economic policy, and the US “appears to be winning the trade war,” one analyst said, as tariffs curb imports but other countries keep buying American goods.

The drop in imports was largely fueled by pharmaceuticals — many drug companies frontloaded shipments in September after Trump threatened high tariffs, a reflection of the swings in global trade that defined 2025.

The sector may face another twist if the US Supreme Court rules Trump’s tariffs were issued illegally, a decision that could come as soon as Friday.

A chart showing US trade deficit

Venezuela begins to release some political prisoners

Updated Jan 9, 2026, 7:29am GMT+9
Venezuelans march outside the National Assembly as vice president and oil minister, Delcy Rodriguez, was formally sworn in as the country’s interim president
Maxwell Briceno/Reuters

Venezuela began releasing some political prisoners Thursday, as the country’s new leaders seek to stay in Washington’s good graces while maintaining their grip on power.

Domestic and international observers are watching for signs that Venezuela could soften its crackdown on dissent following Nicolás Maduro’s ouster. Democratic reforms should be “the unquestionable measure of success” for the US’ intervention in Venezuela, a Bloomberg columnist argued.

The Trump administration is counting on US capital to rebuild Venezuela’s economy, and while American firms, so far, don’t appear to see the troubled country as a home-run market, lobbyists see an opening: “This is not Iraq. This is not Syria,” one told Semafor.

India forecasts stronger economic growth than expected

Updated Jan 8, 2026, 8:40pm GMT+9
New Delhi skyline.
Danish Siddiqui/Reuters

India projected its economy would expand more than previously expected, maintaining its status as the world’s fastest-growing major nation.

The figures suggest the country is weathering trade tensions with the US, as well as regional security and political issues. Remarkably, the central bank has cut its inflation forecast, pointing to something of a Goldilocks period in which growth is not accompanied by significant price rises.

Still, experts voiced caution. “India has experienced apparent structural accelerations before, only for them to fade when global conditions turned or domestic imbalances resurfaced,” a former central bank chief warned in the Financial Times. “Has India entered a structurally higher growth phase? The most defensible answer is — provisionally.”

Beijing’s FM courts Africa with New Year tour

Updated Jan 8, 2026, 8:39pm GMT+9
Tingshu Wang/Pool/File Photo/Reuters

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi courted key East African nations on a tour of the region, part of efforts to capitalize on frustration with the US on the continent.

The country’s foreign ministers have traditionally made their first annual overseas trip to Africa, symbolic of Beijing’s push to improve ties.

On the itinerary for 2026 are Ethiopia, Lesotho, Somalia, and Tanzania, each of which has seen worsening ties with Washington since the start of US President Donald Trump’s second term.

The China-Global South Project noted that Wang will likely frame Beijing as a stable, rule-abiding partner, one which recently announced zero-tariff market access for a raft of African nations — a sharp contrast with its superpower rival.

Trump to meet with Colombian president as tensions escalate

Updated Jan 8, 2026, 8:38pm GMT+9
Colombian President Gustavo Petro attends a rally in defense of national sovereignty. Sergio Acero/Reuters.

US President Donald Trump offered to host his Colombian counterpart for talks soon, pointing to a detente just days after he suggested Washington could follow up its intervention in Caracas with one in Bogotá.

Colombia — a hub of the global drug trade — and the US have seen relations deteriorate since Trump came to office, with Trump saying a potential operation in Colombia “sounds good” after American troops spirited Venezuela’s leader to New York City for trial on narco-trafficking charges.

The stakes extend beyond drugs, and indeed beyond Bogotá: Colombia is home to significant reserves of oil as well as precious metals, and following the Venezuela move, Trump told reporters that “Cuba is ready to fall,” too.

ICE killing of Minneapolis driver sparks outrage

Updated Jan 8, 2026, 8:36pm GMT+9
Tim Evans/Reuters

US Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers killed a woman in Minneapolis, sparking a row between local authorities and the federal government. Video showed men on foot approaching a car, which attempted to drive off before an officer fired repeatedly.

The Department of Homeland Security said the woman tried to run over police, accusing her of “domestic terrorism,” a characterization Mayor Jacob Frey called “bullsh*t.” Minnesota is at the center of the country’s immigration debate: Trump called the local Somali community “garbage” and accused them of mass benefit fraud, while a civil liberties group has sued the DHS, alleging ICE officers assaulted residents. Frey blamed the agents for the death, saying “To ICE: Get the f*ck out of Minneapolis.”

US energy secretary vows to sell Venezuelan oil ‘indefinitely’

Updated Jan 8, 2026, 8:28pm GMT+9
Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA. Carlos Garcia Rawlins/File Photo/Reuters.

The US energy secretary said Washington will sell Venezuelan oil “indefinitely,” further cementing the outsize control the White House plans to have over Caracas’ economy.

In the days since it captured Venezuela’s leader, the US has said the South American country will hand over crude worth about $3 billion.

Washington is also reportedly discussing plans to partially take over Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, and will host American oil executives at the White House on Friday.

Venezuela has the world’s largest stated oil reserves, and Chevron is already in talks to expand its license there, Reuters reported, while other energy CEOs have expressed interest in projects. But many want “serious guarantees” before diving in, according to the Financial Times.

Trump faces widespread backlash over Greenland threats

Updated Jan 8, 2026, 8:26pm GMT+9
Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters

US President Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland are sparking backlash among allies. His secretary of state will meet with Denmark’s and Greenland’s leaders over the issue soon.

Internationally, the UK — usually keen to maintain warm relations with Trump — said the island should decide its own future, and joined other European nations in saying Greenland “belongs to its people.”

US Republicans also voiced concern, with several telling Semafor that the administration should tamp down its rhetoric.

The campaign is, perhaps unsurprisingly, creating a problem between lawmakers and the Danish ambassador: One House staffer said that every time the Greenland issue comes up, the diplomat “emails everyone and complains and comes and does meetings and yells at us.”

US withdraws from key UN climate treaty and 65 other groups

Updated Jan 8, 2026, 8:24pm GMT+9
A thermometer seen behind the flag of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Wolfgang Rattay/Reuters

US President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from dozens of international entities, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, further cementing Washington’s retreat from multilateralism.

The White House said the groups, most of them UN-backed, were “wasteful, ineffective, or harmful,” and would no longer receive “the blood, sweat, and treasure of the American people.”

Trump has long been skeptical of international bodies: On the first day of his second term, he withdrew from the World Health Organization and the Paris Agreement, having already quit both during his first stint in office before his successor Joe Biden rejoined. He has also suggested that the US might leave NATO.

US seizes Russian-flagged oil tanker, in challenge to Moscow

Updated Jan 8, 2026, 12:23am GMT+9
Hakon Rimmereid/via Reuters

The US military on Wednesday seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker accused of evading a naval blockade around Venezuela, a move that is sure to rankle Moscow.

Sanctioned tankers have been trying to get around the US’ oil embargo en masse; American forces also apprehended a second “stateless, sanctioned” tanker on Wednesday.

The unilateral interceptions could complicate Ukraine peace talks between the US and Russia, which is said to use a fleet of shadow tankers to circumvent Western sanctions.

The flare-up comes after US President Donald Trump said Caracas will hand over millions of barrels of oil, and the energy secretary said Washington would oversee Venezuela’s oil sales “indefinitely.”

China heightens scrutiny of US tech ties

Updated Jan 8, 2026, 7:16am GMT+9
H200. Nvidia

China is heightening scrutiny over tech deals involving US companies as Beijing ramps up domestic industries.

The government this week asked Chinese tech firms to temporarily halt orders of Nvidia’s H200 AI chips, The Information reported, about a month after the White House OK’d exports of the powerful processors: In considering whether to allow the sales, China is trying to balance AI development with its push for chip self-sufficiency.

Beijing is also reportedly reviewing Meta’s plan to buy Chinese-founded AI startup Manus.

The probe could throw cold water on the idea that the acquisition would serve as a template for US investors and Chinese founders, a prominent China-watcher wrote.

Boeing recovery boosted by Alaska Airlines’ largest-ever order

Updated Jan 8, 2026, 7:20am GMT+9
Jason Redmond/Reuters

Alaska Airlines is buying 110 Boeing aircraft, adding momentum to the US plane manufacturer’s steady recovery.

The US carrier’s largest-ever order comes as it expands its fleet amid growing air travel demand. Boeing, which was plagued by yearslong problems — including two deadly crashes in 2018 and 2019, and a door plug coming off a 737 Max mid-flight in 2024 — has since overhauled management and implemented new quality-control measures, The New York Times reported; airlines say its products have improved, and the US aviation authority has lifted some restrictions on its aircraft.

Boeing’s share price has recovered, up 30% in a year, but some analysts caution “any turnaround is still a few years out,” Investor’s Business Daily reported.

Data shows slowing US labor market

Updated Jan 8, 2026, 7:28am GMT+9
Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Two reports on Wednesday painted a portrait of a cautious and fracturing US labor market.

Government data showed hiring slowed in November and the number of available jobs fell to a more than one-year low, while layoffs slowed — suggesting employers aren’t eager to make dramatic changes to their headcount. And a report from ADP found white-collar jobs were hit especially hard last month, including professional and business services and the information sector.

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates last year to help shore up the job market; the central bank is likely to hold rates steady this month if a key monthly report on Friday shows the labor market is “bending but not breaking,” one economist wrote.

Chinese robots on display at CES

Updated Jan 8, 2026, 7:18am GMT+9
Steve Marcus/Reuters

Humanoids are the hottest draw at this week’s CES convention in Las Vegas.

The robots are the industry’s “big bet on what comes next,” Bloomberg wrote: Those on display at the conference poured coffee, folded laundry, and dealt cards — albeit painfully slowly at times.

Chinese firms make up more than half of the robot exhibitors at CES, reflecting the country’s rapidly advancing humanoid sector. Chinese robotics startups tallied 3.5 times more investment rounds than the US in 2025, one recent analysis found.

The robotics race is quickly splitting along geographic lines. While China has a more advanced humanoid and service bot ecosystem, European startups are leaning into drones, while American firms dominate in premium medical bots and robotics software.

Beijing vows fiscal support for debt-stricken provinces

Updated Jan 7, 2026, 9:08pm GMT+9
Maxim Shemetov/Reuters

China pledged fiscal support for its debt-saddled local governments, but analysts said the stimulus may not be enough to shift forecasts for growth in the world’s second-biggest economy.

The finance ministry indicated it would expand central government bond issuance and bolster transfers to provincial authorities, though it was unclear if the overall scale of the fiscal effort would be markedly different from one undertaken in 2025.

China’s provinces are grappling with mountains of debt driven in part by huge overinvestment in infrastructure and a massive expansion of spending during the pandemic.

The latest measures will “partially alleviate local fiscal pressures, but are insufficient to fully reverse local government austerity,” analysts at the research firm Trivium wrote.

White House focuses on affordability as midterms loom

Updated Jan 7, 2026, 9:01pm GMT+9
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

US President Donald Trump urged Republicans to tackle rising health care costs while Democrats unveiled a push on cheaper housing, a sign that upcoming midterm elections will likely focus on affordability.

The GOP faces an uphill battle holding its narrow House majority after the expiry of popular Obama-era tax credits pushed prescription drug prices up, part of a wider affordability problem hitting the party’s poll numbers; Semafor’s politics team reports today that some Republicans want to steer their party back to the issue rather than discussing upheaval in Venezuela.

Trump believes the stakes are high for him: He told lawmakers he would be impeached again if Democrats won, and floated, then dismissed, the possibility of canceling the elections altogether.

Europe agrees to provide military support for Ukraine

Updated Jan 7, 2026, 8:57pm GMT+9
Ludovic Marin/Pool via Reuters

European powers agreed to put boots on the ground to defend Ukraine as part of a proposed peace deal.

Britain and France would establish military bases in Ukraine, while the US offered satellite and drone monitoring to detect any ceasefire breaches.

European leaders touted the pledge as a diplomatic breakthrough, and framed Washington’s willingness to participate as a significant convergence of US and EU positions after months of tensions. But progress may be limited: Moscow has already rejected the idea of European troops on Ukrainian soil, and the agreement says a response “may include” military action, rather than promising it.

It’s Article 5 lite, not Article 5-like,” Euractiv said, referring to the NATO guarantee of mutual defense.

Venezuela agrees to give US 50 million barrels of oil

Updated Jan 7, 2026, 8:45pm GMT+9
Venezuela’s interim President Delcy Rodríguez (center). Marcelo Garcia/Miraflores Palace/Handout via Reuters.

US President Donald Trump said Venezuela will hand over up to 50 million barrels of oil, the latest sign of the new leadership in Caracas seeking to placate the White House.

Venezuela’s government has criticized the Trump administration after the US captured its leader Nicolás Maduro to stand trial on narco-trafficking charges, yet has also taken conciliatory steps: Along with the oil-sale deal, the country’s new president Delcy Rodríguez is open to granting US companies rights to explore Venezuela’s oil fields.

But Rodríguez faces pressure from a regime that has long opposed the US and which is mostly still intact. “She’s sandwiched between US firepower and Venezuelan firepower,” one expert told The Wall Street Journal. “She can’t kowtow too much.”

Washington ups threats to buy or take Greenland

Updated Jan 7, 2026, 8:39pm GMT+9
Marko Djurica/File Photo/Reuters

US leaders stepped up pressure to annex Greenland, raising the prospect of using financial or military means to take control of the Danish territory.

The various remarks by the White House press secretary and the US secretary of state, as well as several lawmakers, came after European leaders voiced solidarity with Copenhagen, which has sought to repel US demands.

Washington’s campaign, on the heels of its shock ousting of Venezuela’s leader, illustrates a stark geopolitical shift: Where once the US was at least the rhetorical backer of a liberal, rules-based international order, the world is now one “that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power,” a senior Trump administration aide told CNN.

Copper futures surge to record high

Updated Jan 7, 2026, 8:38pm GMT+9
Jonny Hogg/File Photo/Reuters

Copper futures surged to a record high, driving revenues for African producers in particular.

The Democratic Republic of Congo, which has tripled output in the last decade to become the world’s second-largest copper supplier after Chile, has seen its currency leap 28% against the dollar over the last year, while Zambia, also racing to boost copper mining, saw similar gains.

Copper is vital for new technologies, from data centers to electric vehicles, and supply growth is slow, because opening mines can take decades. Copper is key to African growth, Business Insider Africa reported, but the continent faces a familiar, and regularly unmet, challenge of ensuring that populations share the proceeds.



Title icon

More from Semafor

AD