When might we achieve AGI?
2031(80% confidence: 2027 – 2045)Our combined forecast estimates AGI will arrive in 2031, as of January 5, 2026.
Median year predictions from multiple forecasting sources.
- Metaculus (Weak AGI)
- Metaculus (Full AGI)
- Metaculus (Turing)
- Manifold
- Combined Confidence Interval
Individual Forecasts:
From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?"
Metaculus Prediction (Year)
From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?"
Metaculus Prediction (Year)
From the forecasting site Metaculus, full title: "When will an AI first pass a long, informed, adversarial Turing test?"
Metaculus Prediction (Year)
From the prediction market Manifold Markets, full title: "AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]"
Manifold Prediction (Year)
From the prediction market Kalshi. Shows probability (0-100%) that AI passes the Turing test before 2030.
Kalshi Prediction (% before 2030)