By Amber Wang and Joy Chiang
Taiwan’s main opposition will protest on Friday, the eve of unprecedented recall elections targeting its lawmakers that could tip the balance of power to President Lai Ching-te’s ruling party.
Supporters of Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) are seeking to unseat 31 Kuomintang (KMT) lawmakers who they accuse of being pro-China and a threat to national security.
The KMT, which advocates closer ties with Beijing, controls parliament with the help of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and has slammed the recall effort as undermining the self-ruled island’s democracy.
Two dozen KMT lawmakers could lose their seats on Saturday in a legal process that allows the public to oust elected officials before the end of their term.
Another seven face recall elections on August 23.
The DPP needs a minimum of 12 KMT lawmakers to be recalled to give it a “temporary functional majority” in parliament, political analyst Wen-Ti Sung told AFP.
It would then need to flip six seats in by-elections later this year to secure control of the 113-seat legislature.
Started by civic groups this year, the recall campaigns have dominated Taiwanese politics, newspaper headlines and social media feeds for months.
The DPP lost its parliamentary majority in the 2024 elections that swept Lai, who is detested by Beijing, to the presidency.
Since then, the KMT and TPP have joined forces to stymie Lai’s agenda and cut the government’s budget.
A series of opposition bills, including reforms expanding parliament’s powers and freezing the constitutional court, sparked brawls in the legislature and massive street protests last year.
‘Unprecedented’
The DPP needs a minimum of 12 KMT lawmakers to be recalled to give it a “short-lived legislative majority”, risk analysis firm Eurasia Group said, giving that outcome “a 60 percent probability”.
Lai’s party would then need to flip six seats in by-elections later this year to secure control of the 113-seat parliament, which Eurasia Group said would be an “uphill climb”.
If it succeeds, the DPP would likely use its temporary control of the purse strings to reverse the opposition’s budget cuts and increase defence spending, analysts said.
The scale of the recall campaign was “unprecedented” in Taiwan, Dafydd Fell, an expert on Taiwan politics at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies, told AFP.
It reflected the “strengths of Taiwanese civil society, which has responded to what it perceives as a serious threat to Taiwan’s democracy and sovereignty,” he said.
For a KMT lawmaker to lose their seat, the number of votes in favour of recalling them must exceed those against and also be more than 25 percent of the total number of registered voters in the electorate.
A KMT bid to have 15 DPP lawmakers recalled failed.
With turnout critical, DPP supporters have been standing outside subway stations, in public parks and at food markets for weeks urging people to vote “yes”.
Thousands of people gathered in the rain near the Presidential Office Building on Thursday night in a show of support for the recalls.
KMT legislators fighting for their political lives have also taken to the streets to persuade voters to oppose the recall.
Their supporters are expected to protest on Friday, hours before polling stations open across the island.
With many recall votes happening in KMT strongholds, Fell said it would be difficult for the DPP to win control of the parliament.
“Even if some of the KMT legislators are recalled, other KMT politicians might win the seats back in the resulting by-elections,” he said.
China looms large
National Taipei University political scientist Liu Chia-wei said the recall vote had become an “ideological duel” between the DPP and KMT, as China loomed large.
Taiwan’s top policy body on China said this week there was “visible evidence” Beijing was trying to “interfere” in the election process.
China insists Taiwan is part of its territory and has ramped up military and political pressure on the island to press its claim of sovereignty.
Lai’s government has repeatedly warned of the growing threat from Chinese espionage, disinformation and cyberattacks that it says are aimed at weakening the island’s defences.
Public opinion on the recalls is divided.
Aaron Yu, 32, said he supported the campaign because “most of the bills passed by KMT lawmakers are pro-China”.
But restaurant worker Sharon Chen criticised it as a waste of money, saying voters had already made their decisions in last year’s elections.
“Just because a certain party lost, they can’t accept the result and now want to recall someone the people chose, I think that’s just senseless,” the 65-year-old said.
