The trajectory of Typhoon Wutip was predicted better by artificial intelligence (AI) software than traditional computer models, the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) has said.
Traditional computer models and AI software differed in their forecasts of Wutip’s path, the HKO said on Sunday, as the storm moved away from the city.
A European model predicted that Wutip would approach the southern coast of China, and an American model predicted the storm would come even closer to Hong Kong, passing about 100 kilometres east of Hainan Island.
In contrast, two AI software models estimated that Wutip would take a more westerly path further from Hong Kong, a prediction that ultimately was closer to the storm’s actual track, the HKO said.
It added that last week, from Wednesday to Friday, Wutip remained more than 600 kilometres away, with only some areas of Hong Kong seeing brief periods of strong winds.
The HKO issued the T1 storm signal 1 for Wutip in the early hours of Wednesday as it developed into a tropical depression.
It upgraded the signal to No. 3 around noon on Saturday and lifted the warning the following day, replacing it with a strong monsoon signal to reflect the reduced wind speed.
The monsoon signal was eventually cancelled at 9pm on Sunday.
The Observatory has been using AI in weather forecasting in recent years, using it to evaluate air traffic flow rates at the airport and estimate visibility, among other purposes.
In November 2023, after the city experienced record-breaking rainfall during a black rainstorm warning that lasted over 16 hours, Secretary for Environment and Ecology Tse Chin-wan said the HKO had also used AI to optimise its rain forecasting system.
According to the Observatory’s forecast, “heavy showers and thunderstorms” are expected on the coast of Southern China on Tuesday.
Hong Kong is expected to see hotter weather later this week, with temperatures reaching 33 degrees Celsius on coming Sunday and Monday.
