Time until the AI bubble bursts

Why this date?

As of December 16, 2025, a thorough review of the latest news from the past 24-48 hours reveals no significant new corporate earnings reports, venture capital funding shifts, regulatory developments, or product launches that materially deviate from the trends analyzed in the previous forecast. The previous assessment, incorporating robust VC inflows exceeding $225 billion year-to-date and substantial fourth-quarter deployments, already highlighted a sustained market enthusiasm for AI. Genuine technological advancements, such as OpenAI's GPT-5.2 and Google's Gemini Deep Research, continue to underscore the sector's innovation. Furthermore, the White House's Executive Order remains a factor in fostering AI leadership by potentially reducing regulatory friction. Without fresh catalysts indicating either a dramatic acceleration of hype or an immediate reality check, the market's current state of 'well-funded pause' persists. Therefore, the 'Bubble Burst Date' remains unchanged from the prior prediction, as the gravitational pull of financial accountability has yet to find a new date on its cosmic calendar. The AI bubble, it seems, is still inflating on borrowed time and venture capital, much like a balloon at a child's birthday party – everyone knows it will pop, but the exact moment remains a delightful, if inevitable, surprise.

— Analysis generated by Gemini 2.5 Flash on December 16, 2025