Joel Lewis

Target beats Q2 estimates, but stock slides. Here’s what's going on: 👇 Target delivered better revenue and EPS (earnings per share) than expected, yet shares fell nearly 10% premarket today. Investors had hoped for an outsider CEO to shake things up, not an internal promotion of COO Michael Fiddelke. Instead of signaling a bold strategic shift, it may signal more of the same. Insider promotions don’t always work, but when they do the results can be transformative. 💡Apple thrived under Tim Cook, who rose internally and oversaw the company’s growth into the world’s first $3T company while expanding its ecosystem and services business. 💡Walmart flourished under Doug McMillon, who started as a warehouse associate and drove its transition into e-commerce and digital retail leadership. 💡Google accelerated under Sundar Pichai, who worked his way up through product leadership before guiding Alphabet deeper into AI, cloud, and global search dominance. The lesson is not insider versus outsider. It is about vision, execution, and the ability to reimagine what’s possible. When an insider has both experience and bold direction, continuity can become a powerful advantage. #Leadership #Turnaround #Retail #Target #CEO #Vision #Strategy #Investing #StockMarket #BFGWealthManagement Disclosure: This post is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. BFG Wealth Management and/or its clients may hold positions in companies mentioned at the time of this post.

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What’s Taking So Long? Private credit fundraising has decelerated meaningfully. According to Pitchbook’s Q1 2025 report, top-quartile funds now take approximately 17 months to reach final close, while bottom-quartile managers require a prolonged 26 months—over two years (see chart below). Several forces are driving the slowdown: - Capital allocators are increasingly selective, more and more managers have entered the market, leading to a longer diligence timeline. - Mega-funds from large PE platforms dominate wallet share, often take longer to deploy, delaying distributions and re-deployment. - BDCs and Evergreen structures are gaining market share, siphoning capital from traditional closed-end formats due to their liquidity features. - Deployment pace remains sluggish for many, delaying realizations and elongating recycling timelines. - The Denominator Effect continues to weigh on commitments, as legacy allocations to PE, VC, and real assets have been very slow to return capital or mark down assets particularly in VC, which often holds values at last round price. Bottom line: Top Quartile managers raising funds commensurate with the investment opportunity will remain the winning formula—just like crafting a fine vintage wine, where patience, discipline, and timing ultimately yield the best results. Happy Friday!

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Tariffs, Stagflation, and the Ghost of McKinley Trump’s going full 19th century – but this isn’t 1897, and America isn’t building smokestacks anymore. Blanket tariffs. “Reciprocal” tariffs. Tariff charts delivered like a game show finale. It might read like theatre, but the economic consequences are deadly serious. Read on: Why this week’s tariff shock could mark the moment recession odds flipped to 50/50 – and why the Fed may be forced to cut, even as inflation rises. When President Trump invoked the legacy of William McKinley to justify his sweeping new tariffs, it wasn’t just a history lesson – it was a mission statement. McKinley’s protectionist policies in the 1890s were credited with helping American industry thrive. But trying to revive that playbook in a hyper-globalised, tech-driven economy is like plugging a Tesla into a coal plant. The scale of the new tariffs is stunning. A 10% blanket rate on all imports kicks in April 5. Just four days later, higher ‘reciprocal’ tariffs target major trade partners: 54% on China, 24% on Japan, 26% on India, and 20% on the EU. The UK, for once, squeaks by with just the 10% levy. Mexico and Canada escape entirely — for now. Markets reacted instantly. US futures tanked, gold surged to new all-time highs, and companies with Asian supply chain exposure — from Apple to Nike — took the hit. The message was clear: this isn’t policy tinkering. It’s a structural rupture. The economic risks are just as clear. If fully implemented, the effective tariff rate could rise from 2.5% to over 22% — the highest since 1910. Inflation will rise. Analysts estimate a >1% uplift to core PCE. Goods inflation will bite, and auto prices (new and used) could jump sharply. Consumer confidence, already wobbling, is likely to fall further. Growth will take a hit too. With 70% of GDP tied to consumption, higher prices mean weaker demand. Throw in the risk of foreign retaliation and lower business investment, and a consumer-led slowdown becomes a real possibility. It’s no longer a question of if this damages the economy — but how much and how fast. The Fed now finds itself in a classic stagflation trap. Inflation is rising, but growth is slowing. Do they hold firm, hoping the data moderates? Or do they cut to pre-empt a recession? We think they’ll blink — with a cautious rate cut likely later this year, and more to follow in 2026 if the full tariff regime holds. There’s still time. The April 9 deadline for the full tariff implementation gives room for negotiation or delay. Trump has hinted at flexibility, and international pushback may yet reshape the terms. But the direction of travel is clear — and the odds of a 2025 recession are now, at best, a coin toss. America isn’t verticalising trade. It’s building a wall around its economy — and betting that it won’t trap itself inside.

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The numerator is the most visible element in the P/E ratio, but we all know that it's the denominator that really matters. Earnings are almost always revised downwards, as this chart shows. Usually those revisions are gradual, but at times of crisis, revisions can be sharp and painful. Do read Henry Neville's great deep dive on the art and science of earnings revisions: https://lnkd.in/eNfXdWsC

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I’ve seen plenty of cycles in my career. What I know for sure is this: ownership transitions don’t slow down just because markets do. Right now, operator-led buyouts are solving two challenges at once: the succession crisis inside SMEs, and investors’ need for real, operational value creation. In a world of volatility, leadership is the only real constant. #OperatorLed #BusinessOwnership #SuccessionSolutions 

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Look out below – Americold (NYSE: COLD) occupancy likely to come in well below street estimates in 1H25 as the company makes the rounds with analysts highlighting their comments on their quarterly call about weak 1Q occupancy, which could translate into at least another 5% decline to 1Q25 consensus AFFO. More problematic is the ramp to reach full year guidance, which seems like a stretch with the lower than expected occupancy in 1Q25. Challenging cold storage fundamentals from a weak consumer, economic uncertainty and tenants looking to run lean inventories to cut costs are likely to weigh on COLD and its peer Lineage (NASDAQ: LINE). L&B has positions in COLD and LINE. 

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The largest firms are dominating major stock indexes to a degree not seen in more than 50 years. History shows that skilled managers have typically performed well coming out of concentrated market environments. While I do not expect passive investing to undergo a major retreat, I believe the investment landscape is shifting in ways that will favor active investment managers with global scale, deep research platforms, and a willingness to cast a wide net to identify the best outcomes for their clients: https://trowe.com/4mDImj8 #ActiveInvesting #ETFs #markets

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The D. E. Shaw Group is launching a new discretionary hedge fund, the Cogence Fund, raising $3–5 billion (already oversubscribed, mostly from existing investors) and set to begin trading Oct. 1. Unlike its quant roots, Cogence will rely solely on human traders making fundamental calls on global equities and credit. While D.E. Shaw already runs over half its $70B AUM in discretionary strategies, this is its first fund to be fully discretionary. The move comes amid limited fundraising in the hedge fund industry, where capacity is tight as many funds are closed or returning capital. D.E. Shaw’s flagship Composite and Oculus funds remain largely closed, both up ~10% through August, and none of these funds charge pass-through fees. https://lnkd.in/gM6pDJfW

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Big changes coming to 401(k) & 403(b) plan investment vehicles! White House Executive Order dropped 8/7/25: “DEMOCRATIZING ACCESS TO ALTERNATIVE ASSETS FOR 401(K) INVESTORS”. Look for Target Date Funds to allocate a portion of their investments to alternative assets like Private Equity, Private Credit, Direct Real Estate, and even Cryptocurrency. 401(k) & 403(b) investors have missed out on the return and diversification aspects of Alternative Invesments long available only to pension funds, endowments, foundations, and wealthy individuals. This order seeks to remove the fiduciary and legal hurdles that have prevented companies from considering these investments. Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should though- so, as with other investments, proceed with caution, and consider the fees, liquidity, returns, risk, and transparency. We’ll be keeping our eyes on this one!

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A meaningful conversation about Private Equity with an astute client. He references various objections to investing in private equity.  An interesting discussion ensues. Objection 1: "Private Equity is not a diversifier against public equities" Response: That is completely true. But it is a way of achieving better risk-adjusted returns. Objection 2: “The lack of volatility in PE valuations is misleading. The values are changing with the equity market, you just cannot see it.” Response: We know that the underlying volatility is there. But we also know that public market valuations whipsaw. The lack of visible volatility in PE is actually good for investor psychology. It helps to prevent investors from running for the hills during a market drawdowns. In my experience this actually works, even with sophisticated investors. Objection 3 “PE is increasingly concentrated on technology companies” Response: This concentration in equally true (perhaps more so) in the public markets. Moreover, most of Goldrock’s investments in PE have been outside technology markets. We have focused much of our capital on lower mid-market and mid-market non-cyclical businesses and energy. Objection 4: “PE Invests in smaller, riskier companies than the stock market" Response: True. However, this is also where you would expect to see meaningful growth potential and so better returns. Objection 5: “PE Has Higher Leverage than the Equity Market” Response: This is correct. Our strategy to date has been to focus on the less leveraged parts of the PE market. Bottom Line #1 – in Private Equity both manager and sector selection are hugely important. You can’t just buy the index, as you can with public equities. This requires a diligent, professional approach.   Bottom Line #2 – I like when clients challenge us. It forces us reassess our priors and makes us a better family office. #familyoffice #privateequity #assetallocation #familywealth #volatility

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New Research out by Ryan Telford, P. Eng, PMP. "Of all the 10X stocks from the last 5 years, the median max drawdown has been a whopping 56%.  In fact, 6 of these stocks had drawdowns of 80% or higher." READ HERE: https://lnkd.in/eTHxQTrt

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The trend toward private equity funding and fewer IPOs is increasing the importance of secondary markets. A "secondary" is when a shareholder (often an early employee, angel investor, accelerator, early-stage VC) is offered an opportunity to sell all or part of their holding to an incoming investor. Secondarys typically happen during later-stage funding rounds when new investors seek to consolidate cap tables or just want more stock. I look for and will usually accept 5x or greater returns after five years, 6x after six years, and so on up to 10x or greater after ten years. The Australian and New Zealand markets are still developing their secondary market infrastructure, with new funds emerging to specifically target these opportunities. The market is becoming more efficient with smaller cheque sizes enabling broader participation and increased liquidity. To increase your odds of getting in on a secondary sale: - Maintain good relationships with founders for fair access to opportunities - Be prepared with quick decision-making frameworks - Keep accurate records of your investments and terms - Stay informed about company performance and direction - Watch for informal heads-up from founders about upcoming opportunities - Be a Canva investor or employee 😂

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“Private credit is eating private equity’s lunch — and they’re letting it happen.” Private credit is now delivering PE-style returns… with better structure, real cash flow, and less fantasy. Meanwhile, PE guys are waiting on exits and praying for multiple expansion. It’s brutal. The best part? Private credit is leveraging the PE guys’ own deals to get paid. ✅ Board seats ✅ Equity kickers ✅ Downside protection ✅ Cash flow from Day 1 Private credit is the quiet assassin in private markets. Is private credit the new alpha engine — or is the risk being underestimated?

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Trump Orders Firing of BLS Chief — Bad Optics, But Let’s Talk About the Data Yes, the optics are bad—firing the head of labor statistics never looks good. But beyond the politics, there’s a deeper issue that deserves attention: the worsening quality of U.S. labor market data. Survey response rates are collapsing, data revisions are getting bigger, and even economists at the Fed are starting to question how much trust they can place in the headline numbers. The jobs data has become increasingly volatile—and that’s not a coincidence. The response rate to key surveys like the CES (Current Employment Statistics) has dropped sharply over the years. It used to be close to 70%. Now it’s hovering just above 40%. Below is a chart showing the steady decline. The downward trend is clear, with an even steeper drop since 2020. The CES—the backbone of the nonfarm payroll report—is simply getting fewer and fewer responses. Whose fault is that? Hard to say. Is it the rise of remote work? A shift in attitudes toward official surveys? Or a broader institutional failure to adapt? Whatever the cause, the data is getting weaker—and we should be talking about that more than the headlines and Trump. —— The UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) has been even more erratic and unreliable than expected. Their labour market data has been so inconsistent, it now takes them months to produce reports that the Bank of England can actually trust. Huw Pill, the Bank’s Chief Economist, put it plainly: ONS efforts “have not yet led to improvement,” and the credibility of labour data remains in serious doubt. With response rates at “extraordinarily low” levels, it’s become increasingly difficult to assess what’s really happening in the labour market. The core Labour Force Survey (LFS) response rate dropped to just ~17% by late 2023, down from around 50% before the pandemic—making much of the data practically unusable. An internal review blamed chronic underfunding, high staff turnover, and the ONS’s shift away from face-to-face interviews post-COVID. The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) was blunt: the problems are largely self-inflicted, caused by a shift in focus away from core outputs and toward less essential work. Things reached a breaking point in October 2023, when the ONS had to suspend publication of labour market data entirely after acknowledging it wasn’t reliable. In response, the ONS has launched a Survey Improvement and Enhancement Plan, promising to rebuild trust through better survey design and interviewer training. They’ve also committed to replacing the LFS with a new Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS) by late 2026—though even that may be delayed until 2027. So yes, the data clearly has a problem. Whether heads should roll is another debate—but acknowledging the issue is at least a start. #nonfarm #jobsreport #US #UK #ONS #data

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EFFECTS OF LONG-TERM GROWTH TRENDS ON U.S. FISCAL DEBT-TO-GDP RATIO The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) is a frequently cited source in the U.S. when new laws are debated. Interestingly, CBO typically bases its baseline projection on an unchanged long-term productivity growth rate, regardless of specific legislative changes, assuming an economic real growth rate of around 1.8% annually. However, the Trump administration is actively pursuing a series of ambitious, growth-promoting initiatives that could significantly elevate the long-term growth trend. Tax relief for businesses and workforce participation, streamlining complex regulations, and massive investments in AI, robotics, and energy projects—supported by simple legislation, rapid approvals, and immediate tax write-offs—could spark an acceleration wave and substantially alter the long-term growth trajectory. Add to this the attraction of foreign investors building new factories and millionaires relocating to the U.S. via "golden visas," and we might be on the brink of a growth boom. This could potentially reduce the debt-to-GDP burden even without major spending cuts. Below are three scenarios from the CBO model, where they have actually calculated this. Even a very moderate increase in the annual growth trend by 0.5 percentage points per year effectively addresses the issue. Sources: CBO and Deutsche Bank.

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