What America needs from President Trump’s successor: Rebuilding trust in government

Assuming we do not amend the Constitution and there is no coup, Donald Trump will cease to be president of the United States at noon on Jan. 20, 2029.   

Almost three years before the next presidential election, politicians, pollsters, pundits, and political betting markets are giving odds on who will be the next leader of the free world. The more important question is: How will that person govern?  

Donald Trump has excelled at smashing norms since he first embarked upon his candidacy in 2016, when he refused to release his tax returns. Since then, he has politicized the Department of Justice, profited from official dealings with foreign countries, impugned the fairness of elections and the competence of our military and intelligence services, fired inspectors general and other important government employees working in apolitical roles, and lied at an unprecedented rate in both his first and second terms.  

If Trump is succeeded by a Republican, for example, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, or his son, Don Jr., we should expect this norm-breaking behavior to continue. “It worked for Trump and I was elected as the heir to Trump,” they will reason, “so I can behave like Trump.”  Certainly, a new Republican might have policy differences with the current president, but those steering the ship of state would have no incentive to change the mechanics of how the ship runs.   

If the next president is a Democrat, they will face a series of difficult choices. 

Should they spend valuable time and political capital repairing the damage that Trump has wrought? This would involve pursuing legislation mandating behavior that was previously done simply by custom, such as releasing candidate tax returns, guaranteeing the independence of inspectors general and the Federal Reserve, and subjecting the president — and the members of the Supreme Court, while we are at it — to a strict, enforceable ethics-in-government law.  

Even if a new president were able to enact a post-Watergate-style legislative reform, returning to pre-Trump norms will be difficult. The Trump presidency has demonstrated that there are vast areas of executive branch activity that cannot be easily constrained by legislation. The elimination of the U.S. Agency for International Development and layoffs instituted by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) under Elon Musk, Trump’s decision to unilaterally ignore the law banning TikTok, and military strikes on boats in the Caribbean with absolutely no evidence that they constitute a threat to the United States illustrate just how easily a determined president can circumvent the will and intent of Congress. 

Trump has also engendered an erosion of trust, both at home and abroad. Non-partisan civil servants who produce the data that policy makers and industry rely upon have been fired, and their agencies starved for resources. Given that the damage continues, it is unclear how long it will take a successor to reestablish the expertise of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other government statistics-gathering agencies, and if those agencies’ hard-won reputations for accuracy and impartiality will ever be completely restored.   

Overseas, allies who once thought that we were a steadfast partner may not be so quick to believe that the United States is once again a reliable ally. And even if they believe that Trump’s Democratic successor is dependable, what assurance do they have that the successor to Trump’s successor will be similarly reliable? 

Trump hasn’t just damaged the reputation of his own administration, but also that of administrations to follow.   

Restoring faith in the American government will be the most important task for the next president.   

That job is more difficult than it may seem. Presidents, as powerful as we believe them to be, are hemmed in by Congress, the courts and the bureaucracy. They often chafe under these constraints and seek ways to circumvent them. It is hard to believe that even the most well-meaning, most un-Trump-like Democrat would not be attracted to adopting some elements of Trump-style governance.   

Despite these temptations, it is vital that America’s next president be committed to good government, restoring the rule of law, and reestablishing the norms that have served our country well. Failure to do so will further weaken our republic. 

Richard S. Grossman is the Andrews professor of economics at Wesleyan University and a Visiting Scholar at the Institute for Quantitative Social Science at Harvard. He is the author of “WRONG: Nine Economic Policy Disasters and What We Can Learn from Them” (Oxford).