Senate rankings: The 5 seats most likely to flip

Less than a year stands between the two parties and future Senate control as Democrats look to build off electoral wins earlier this month and Republicans work to hold on to the chamber.

The road to nabbing back the majority is steep for Democrats, who need to flip four seats. But the party is feeling upbeat, buoyed by a recruiting class that gives them opportunities across the map, key gubernatorial and statewide victories in off-year elections, and the potential of a fertile political environment. 

Republicans, meanwhile, are banking on bloody Democratic primaries to give them a leg up in key states. 

Here’s a Thanksgiving weekend look at the five Senate seats most likely to flip next year. 

North Carolina

Republicans have a Tar Heel State headache on their hands as their grip on Sen. Thom Tillis’s (R) seat is showing signs of slipping away.

Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper is 6-0 in statewide contests and gives Democrats perhaps their best chance on the 2026 map.

He will likely face Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee and North Carolina GOP chair, who has been a key ally of President Trump and has been both a blessing and a curse for the GOP. 

While he is unlikely to attract a costly and divisive primary thanks to Trump’s support, Republicans are worried he doesn’t have a distinguishable brand in a year not expected to be kind to Republicans.

“In a year where you need to create some separation on some issues, he’s up against someone who has their own brand, has their own style and has been doing it statewide for a decade-plus. Can he be the guy? Sure. Has he shown he is the guy? No,” one GOP operative who has worked on Senate races told The Hill.

“He is the worst-case generic Republican,” they added, noting Whatley’s prior career as an energy lobbyist will do him few favors. 

Republicans readily admit Cooper, with his far higher name ID, is the favorite at this early stage.

In an interview, Tillis argued Whatley and Republicans need to find a way to counter the messaging on affordability and health care that Democrats used effectively in the latest spate of off-year races.

He also said being down in the polls at this point is not yet a major issue for Whatley. 

“Being behind doesn’t matter,” Tillis said. “But you can’t be behind by too much.”

Georgia

The battle for the future of Sen. Jon Ossoff’s (D-Ga.) seat is only months old, but nastiness has already erupted as Republicans attempt to sort through their crowded field in the biggest swing state on the map. 

The infighting hit a new level in recent weeks as​​ an outside group supporting Derek Dooley — and backed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) — ran an ad going after Reps. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) and Buddy Carter (R-Ga.) for their role in the 43-day government shutdown. Not only did it go after them, it lumped them in with Ossoff. 

“It’s what happens when you send career politicians to D.C.,” the ad’s narrator said.

This set off a furor on the right, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Senate Leadership Fund both distancing themselves from the ad, which stepped on the party’s messaging that the shutdown was solely the fault of Democrats. 

“Primaries tend to get competitive,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) recently said about the brouhaha. “But we still think in Georgia, once the dust settles there and the smoke clears, that that’s gonna be a really good opportunity for us.”

Nevertheless, the back-and-forth crystalized the fight as Dooley attempts to distinguish himself in the field. 

Strategists argue the Georgia contest is the most classic toss-up race on the map, and the GOP operative noted an argument could be made for any outcome at this point. 

As for the well-funded Ossoff, he notably voted against the deal to reopen the government and is seemingly gambling that staying in the good graces of the base is the smart play right now.

Whether he’s right will come down to the political environment at play, which Republicans hope is more akin to last year than previous cycles when the Peach State gave them trouble.

“Georgia is gonna be a test … of the environment. If the environment sucks for Republicans, then Jon Ossoff can win. If the environment is neutral, it’s going to be very close,” said a second GOP operative who’s worked on Senate races. “It is totally dependent on the national environment, because you don’t have a superior candidate on the Republican side.” 

Maine

Perhaps no primary on the map this year has gone from zero to 60 quicker than the Democratic fight that’s emerging in Maine as the party looks to take down Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins. 

Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) announced her bid in October after months of internal debates and recruiting by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). But unlike Cooper, she doesn’t have a clear shot at the nomination, as Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and veteran who secured the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), has taken the contest by storm. 

Maine and national Republicans long figured they would be taking on Mills next year and had an eye toward that match-up. That thinking has started to change as Platner has energized scores of voters.

The question remains, though, whether the Platner hot-air balloon will continue to fly, lose steam or be popped entirely.

He came under fire last month when it was revealed he has a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol, and he has faced questions about a series of offensive Reddit posts. 

“The guy could be all-pro in two years, or he could be playing in the CFL [Canadian Football League],” one Maine GOP operative told The Hill, pointing to Platner’s high-ceiling, low-floor nature. 

Despite Platner’s rise, national Democrats continue to view Mills as the person to face off with Collins next year. They readily note Collins’s standing among Mainers has fallen from six years ago, especially in a state that former Vice President Kamala Harris carried by 7 percentage points, and compare it to the situation former Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) faced last cycle 

Nevertheless, some Democratic operatives remain concerned Collins will once again emerge victorious. 

“I feel like there’s more shoes to drop there, and [Platner’s] not a good candidate,” one Democratic operative who’s worked on Senate races said.

“But this also isn’t the cycle to be running an octogenarian,” they added of Mills, who would be 79 at the start of 2027. 

Michigan

The good news for Republicans is that Trump twice flipped Michigan, showing there’s a road map to winning as a Republican in what has become one of the swingiest purple states.

The bad news is that type of success has not been replicated by Republican Senate candidates, with the state turning into a mirage of sorts as they look to win their first seat there in more than 30 years. 

Republicans are once again turning to former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) to do just that after he lost by less than 20,000 votes to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in 2024.

They point to key differences between 2024 and 2026, including that Democrats are going through a contentious primary while Rogers likely skates through to the general election — the exact inverse from his previous bid.

Nevertheless, multiple GOP operatives expressed major reservations about the party’s prospects.

Some wonder whether next year can actually be different for Rogers, given that Trump won’t be on the ballot. They also view him as having the inverse from Platner’s profile: a high-floor candidate with an extremely limited ceiling.

In the meantime, Rogers is waiting to see which Democrat emerges among Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) and Abdul El-Sayed in the August primary, with all three occupying different lanes. 

Stevens is long believed to be the favorite of top Democrats, having previously praised Schumer’s leadership — making her a target of progressive groups. She is also the most pro-Israel candidate of the bunch.

McMorrow, a media-friendly upstart, has taken a staunch position against Schumer and Democratic leaders, framing herself as part of a new generation to carry the torch forward. 

And El-Sayed, the Sanders-backed candidate, holds a significant amount of progressive support but is widely viewed as giving Rogers the best chance of flipping the seat. 

Democrats remain confident that historical trends will keep up no matter the candidate, but none of the candidates have broken away from the field, according to a recent survey. 

“They’ve just got to get better known,” said retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), whose retirement is opening the seat. “At this point, the name game is pretty important.” 

New Hampshire 

Much has changed about this race since the last time this list appeared, as former Sen. John Sununu (R-N.H.) has shaken up the contest to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.).

Sununu announced in late October that he would run for the seat he held nearly two decades ago until, ironically, he lost to Shaheen in 2008. He’d been cajoled for months by GOP leaders who were dissatisfied with former Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.) being the standard-bearer in the race. 

GOP lawmakers have also come out in force for him, with more than half of the Republican conference throwing their weight behind him during a recent fundraiser as part of the push to coalesce around his campaign. A recent survey shows him as the GOP’s best general election option. 

There are potential bumps in the road for Sununu, who hails from a very different political era than the one his younger brother Chris, the Republican former New Hampshire governor, was forced to navigate.

He is running in one of the few states on the map where Trump lost last year. He would also take on Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.), whose family also has deep New Hampshire roots and has won tough reelection races in recent years. 

But there are still questions about whether he can do the job for Republicans, especially in comparison to his brother, who turned down multiple chances to run for the upper chamber in recent years. 

“People will tell you that John is not Chris. He is not the same caliber of candidate,” the second GOP operative said, adding there are questions about his likability, aggressiveness and engaging nature on the trail. “We’ll see. It’s a good land.” 

Republicans do see plenty of upside though. New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s standing atop the ticket for Republicans is among those items in a race where the GOP needs just about everything to go right, not to mention the national environment. 

“If the environment is bad, you’re not flipping New Hampshire,” the operative added.