Napoli Seek Statement Win As In‑Form Qarabag Arrive In Europe

Napoli vs Qarabag - 25/11/2025

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Napoli and Qarabag approach this Champions League meeting from very different starting points, yet both carry numbers that suggest a tense and tactical contest rather than a formality. With Antonio Conte trying to harden Napoli into a reliable European force and Qurban Qurbanov bringing one of the continent’s most consistent travellers, this clash has all the ingredients of a real test of structure, efficiency and nerve.

Recent Form

Napoli’s last 6 matches in all competitions show a side edging in the right direction without fully convincing. Three wins, two draws and one defeat, with just 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per match, underline how Conte has prioritised control and defensive stability. Their last 3 home games reinforce that image: unbeaten with 1 win and 2 draws, conceding only 0.33 per match and averaging 14 total shots and 5.67 on target. They are not overwhelming opponents, but they are steadily squeezing the margin for error at the back.

Qarabag’s recent form reads similarly solid, though with a more attacking flavour. Over their last 6 in all competitions, they also have 3 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, but with 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded on average. They generate 13 shots per match and 6 on target, while enjoying 54.33 % possession, slightly higher than Napoli. Their last 3 away fixtures bring 2 wins and 1 defeat, scoring 2.33 and conceding 2 per match, which hints at a more open style on the road.

Recent History

These clubs have not built any sustained head to head narrative in Europe, so the story lies in how each has been performing in this Champions League campaign. After 4 group matches, Napoli sit in 24th position in the overall standings table for the phase, with 1 win, 1 draw and 2 losses. They have scored 4 goals, exactly 1 per game, but conceded 9, an uncomfortable 2.25 per match, for a goal difference of minus 5. Those figures expose the gap between their generally strong domestic numbers and the step up in continental competition.

Qarabag, by contrast, have navigated their 4 fixtures with more balance. They are 15th in the standings with 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, scoring 8 and conceding 7. That works out at 2 goals scored per game and 1.75 allowed, a slight positive goal difference that reflects a side willing to trade chances but still capable of closing games out. With both clubs having played the same number of matches, Qarabag’s group record at this stage is clearly superior.

Overall Performance

Napoli’s longer term data in Europe is a little uneven. Over their last 22 Champions League fixtures, they have won 50 %, but they have also lost 4 of their last 8 in this competition and have been winless in 5 of their last 6 Champions League matches. Another warning sign is that they have lost by 2 or more goals in 40 % of their last 10 Champions League games. At the same time, their home record in the competition is far stronger: across the last 26 Champions League games at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli have won 14 and remained undefeated in 85 %, with 46 % of those victories coming by at least 2 goals.

Qarabag’s broader picture is that of a club used to winning regularly across all tournaments. In their last 15 matches in all competitions they have taken 10 victories, with sharp attacking indicators of 5.27 shots on target and 55.47 % possession on average. Over their last 30 matches in all competitions they have been undefeated in 90 % of them and have won by 2 or more goals in 53 %. In Champions League play specifically, they have won 60 % of their last 15 fixtures and stayed undefeated in 80 % of their last 10, which is a level of consistency that travels into any venue with confidence.

Main Trends

Napoli’s home numbers across all competitions paint a very different image from their current group position. They have not been defeated in 88 % of their last 40 home games in all competitions, winning 23 of those, and have kept clean sheets in 40 % of their last 20 at home. Even when focusing only on Champions League home matches, they remain formidable: 26 home games in the competition with 14 wins, 85 % undefeated, and 46 % of those victories by at least 2 goals.

Qarabag, though, are one of Europe’s most stubborn travellers in recent seasons. Across their last 30 away matches in all competitions they have won 21, and have been undefeated in 11 of their last 12 away. They also win by 2 or more goals in 43 % of those last 30 away fixtures. In Champions League terms, their defensive structure holds up both home and away, with 6 clean sheets in their last 15 Champions League home games and 12 of their last 15 home fixtures in the competition ending without defeat, which speaks to their capacity to manage pressure games.

Probable Lineups

Napoli will again be shaped by Antonio Conte’s preference for stability in a 4-3-3. With Alex Meret sidelined, Vanja Milinković-Savić remains the undisputed choice in goal, protected by an almost fixed back four that has started the last two matches together. In midfield, the absence of Frank Anguissa due to a hamstring problem should move Eljif Elmas into a more advanced role, with Stanislav Lobotka anchoring and Scott McTominay offering running power. Up front, Matteo Politano and Rasmus Højlund look locked in, with Noa Lang likely to be preferred on the left after regular substitute appearances.

Napoli
Goalkeeper: Vanja Milinković-Savić
Defenders: Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani, Alessandro Buongiorno, Miguel Gutiérrez
Midfielders: Stanislav Lobotka, Scott McTominay, Eljif Elmas
Attackers: Matteo Politano, Rasmus Højlund, Noa Lang

Qarabag should stick close to the 4-2-3-1 that has given them balance in Europe. Mateusz Kochalski has recently held the starting goalkeeper role, screened by a back four where Matheus Silva, Bahlul Mustafazada, Kevin Medina and Elvin Jafarguliyev provide an aggressive but disciplined line. Pedro Bicalho and Marko Janković are expected to form the double pivot, allowing a creative trio of Leandro Andrade, Kady Borges and Abdellah Zoubir to support central forward Camilo Duran.

Qarabag
Goalkeeper: Mateusz Kochalski
Defenders: Matheus Silva, Bahlul Mustafazada, Kevin Medina, Elvin Jafarguliyev
Midfielders: Pedro Bicalho, Marko Janković, Leandro Andrade, Kady Borges, Abdellah Zoubir
Attackers: Camilo Duran

Sidelined

Napoli have to cope without Alex Meret, out with a metatarsal fracture, which secures Milinković-Savić’s place in goal, while Frank Anguissa’s hamstring issue opens space in midfield. Kevin De Bruyne remains unavailable with a hamstring muscle injury and Romelu Lukaku is not eligible for this Champions League campaign. Qarabag are without long term absentee Joni Montiel and forward Ramil Sheydaev, whose ineligibility slightly reduces Qurbanov’s options in attack but does not affect the core of his starting structure.

Prediction

Forebet’s algorithm points towards a Napoli victory with a 41 % probability and suggests a 2-1 scoreline, expecting more than 2.5 total goals. Napoli’s outstanding Champions League home record and defensive solidity at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona carry significant weight, even against Qarabag’s strong away trends. Qarabag’s attacking numbers and undefeated stretches suggest they will create chances, but Napoli’s combination of home resilience and higher individual quality should tilt a close game in their favour, making a 2-1 home win the most plausible outcome.

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UCL

Napoli Qarabag 26/11/2025 5:00

412732

1

2 - 1

2.73

17°

1.27

1.27 5.50 11.00 no down up

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