Democrats look to cap off winning streak with Tennessee special election

Democrats are going all in on a Tennessee special election next month, teeing up one last test of their electoral strength ahead of 2026 after enjoying a string of victories in November.  

Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin in recent weeks have campaigned for Democrat Aftyn Behn, a state representative running against Republican Matt Van Epps for former Rep. Mark Green’s (R) seat in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. Several outside Democratic groups have poured money into the race, too. 

Van Epps, a former Tennessee Department of General Services commissioner, is endorsed by President Trump. The president hosted a tele-rally for the Republican candidate earlier this month, while several outside GOP groups, including the pro-Trump MAGA Inc, are spending in the race, too. 

While Democrats acknowledge the odds they’re up against to flip the seat in the deep-red district, the party believes even a 10-point loss would be seen as a victory. 

“This is our first special election in nearly 40 years in Tennessee, so this is really a once-in-a-generation opportunity for us,” said Dakota Galban, chair of the Davidson County Democratic Party. The county includes the city of Nashville.  

“They drew these new lines intentionally to rob Democrats of our voice in Congress, so I think that especially motivates Nashville voters,” Galban added, noting Tennessee’s current House map splits Nashville into three different districts.  

Early voting is underway in the state’s 7th Congressional District, a House seat that stretches from Tennessee’s northern border with Kentucky to the state’s southern border with Alabama; it includes western and northern portions of Nashville.  

Green resigned from his seat in July for a job in the private sector, triggering the special election to replace him.  

Trump won the district by 22 points in November, while Green won it against former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry (D) by 21 points. Van Epps is widely expected to win the seat during the Dec. 2 special election, though Democrats say there are reasons to think they could overperform.

For one, the party was encouraged by its wins in places like New Jersey and Virginia earlier this month, when Democrats Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger outperformed expectations and won their respective gubernatorial races by double-digits. Those victories came after a string of smaller special election wins by the party throughout the year.

Members of the party note the current district lines include parts of Nashville, which offers a boost for Democrats; the last time the seat was open in 2018, the 7th Congressional District did not include the city at all. 

And that’s not to mention a few high-profile surrogates such as Harris campaigning in the district, adding further attention to the race. 

“There’s a lot of very cautious optimism,” said Justin Kanew, who ran against Green for the open seat in 2018 under the old congressional lines and now runs the progressive news site The Tennessee Holler.

“I think everybody understands the reality of the landscape here, but there are enough reasons to think that if there ever was a time for a miracle, now would be the time,” he said. 

Behn has made her campaign slogan “feed kids, fix roads and fund hospitals.” In advertising, she’s slammed Republicans for Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which she’s referred to as the GOP’s “big, bulls‑‑‑ bill,” criticizing it for its cuts to Medicaid while offering larger tax breaks to wealthy Americans.  

In another ad, Behn attacks Republicans for their handling of the files related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The ad also says Tennesseans get a “rough ride” over health care cuts and Trump’s tariffs, showing several people on a mechanical bull being knocked off.

Republicans in Congress passed legislation earlier this week, which was signed into law by Trump, that requires the Justice Department to release unclassified documents pertaining to Epstein, after the president signaled earlier he was in favor of doing so after much initial resistance.  

Democrats have attacked Van Epps for his position over the issue; he previously avoided saying whether he wants the Epstein files to be released and instead supported House GOP leadership’s handling of the issue as the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee issued subpoenas for the documents.  

Van Epps later said he supported the release of those files just hours before the House voted overwhelmingly in favor of their release, saying on the social platform X, “As I’ve said from the beginning, I support full transparency — I would vote to release the Epstein files, no hesitation.” 

“I’m with President Trump 100%. I also support continued investigation by the oversight committee with full subpoena power. Tennesseans want and deserve the truth!” he added. 

Van Epps has also touched on affordability in some of his campaign advertising, including pushes to “bring down prices, create good-paying jobs and lower health care costs for working families,” while also touting his military credentials as a veteran who’s served on nine combat tours.  

Van Epps and other Republican groups such as Club for Growth Action have sought to paint Behn as a “woke liberal,” pointing to a selfie-styled video of hers in which she talked about tailing state troopers and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officials. They’ve also attacked her for comments she made on a 2020 podcast in which she said she hated Nashville. 

“NO, I DO NOT HATE THE CITY I REPRESENT,” Behn wrote on X, featuring several laughing emojis. “The national GOP’s new attack? That I ‘hate Nashville.’ I’ve cried in the Country Music Hall of Fame no less than 10 times. They’re panicking because we’re close to winning. Eyes on the prize, y’all. Let’s go.” 

Republicans acknowledge that because it’s a special election, they’ll have to spend more in what’s been a reliably red district. Still, they’re not concerned about Van Epps’s chances next month. 

“It’s a special election so turnout is going to be very low. Dems are angry and Republicans are satisfied with what’s going on, so turnout is a challenge, but the Democrats nominated very poorly,” Republican strategist Josh Thomas told The Hill in an email. 

Republicans are dismissive of the idea that Democrats will be able to tout a relatively narrow loss as win.

“There’s only one scorecard: You win or lose,” Chip Saltsman, a Republican strategist and former Tennessee GOP chair, said.  

“The only job the Republicans have got to do is get one more vote than Democrats, and they’re gonna get a lot more than one,” he added. 

Some Democrats are also clear-eyed about their prospects in the district.  

While Lisa Quigley, who served as chief of staff to former Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.), noted Tennessee Democrats have improved their vote share out of Nashville in recent election cycles, Davidson County isn’t coming out in the numbers the party needs to keep the race competitive. Data compiled as of Thursday showed Davidson County accounting for about 25 percent of the total vote share. 

“If it was more like 50 percent of the vote, like, we’d be winning. And that’s what we’re not seeing,” Quigley said. 

Democrats also point to structural issues as to why it’s harder to get their base out to vote. Tennessee is ranked among the lowest in voter participation, and members of the party point out that the state’s 30-day voter registration deadline and restrictions around absentee ballots pose hurdles for voters. At the same time, Tennessee’s early voting starts earlier than some states, 20 days before election day.  

Still, Democrats believe the election could send a strong signal to the rest of the state as the party looks to make further inroads there in next year’s midterms. 

“I want people in Nashville to understand that this sets the tone for how we treat all of our people in Tennessee,” said Carol Abney, a member of the state Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee.

“How well we do in this race will show that Tennessee’s worth fighting for,” she added.