Scaling hypersonics: Capability meets affordability 

The U.S. stands at a pivotal moment in defense modernization. As the global security environment grows more contested, one capability stands out for its potential to transform deterrence and warfighting alike: hypersonics. But delivering that capability at operational scale, and at an affordable cost, remains a national challenge we have yet to fully solve. 

The recently released Acquisition Transformation Strategy, announced by Secretary of War Pete Hegseth under the Arsenal of Freedom framework, makes clear that speed, scale and production capacity are top-line priorities for the industrial base. That strategy underscores what our adversaries have already demonstrated. 

Our pacing threats are fielding next-generation munitions. Russia has launched hypersonic weapons in Ukraine; China recently paraded multiple hypersonic systems. These are not theoretical, and no one is waiting for us to catch up. 

This isn’t just about technological parity. It’s about production capacity, industrial resilience and strategic urgency. America’s ability to deter aggression and respond to crises depends not only on what we can invent, but on what we build and how quickly we can build it. The industrial base must not simply design exquisite systems but produce them fast and at volume. Today, China has a larger industrial base than we do. And while many still assume the United States leads in defense technology, that position is increasingly vulnerable.  

If war came to the Pacific in 2027, would we be in a position to win? 

Are our systems, as they exist now, sufficient in capability, in quality, and most importantly, in quantity? Would our warfighters have what they need, when they need it? Would our platforms be combat-ready and survivable? Could we endure and win a high-intensity conflict against one peer adversary, if not a wider range of belligerents? 

These are not questions we can answer unequivocally. They are fundamental challenges to the long-term security of the U.S. and its allies. 

Recent real-world operations have tested our inventory and exposed deep structural vulnerabilities. Earlier this year, the U.S. expended over 150 THAAD interceptors in just 12 days. In defense of Israel and in Red Sea operations, the Navy has reportedly launched over 700 Standard Missiles. And these are not inexpensive munitions.  

This raises another uncomfortable but necessary question: if our weapons are too costly or slow to produce, will we hesitate to use them? We cannot only have systems so exquisite that we fear expending them. That undermines deterrence. Worse, it puts warfighters in an impossible position. 

To be operationally relevant, hypersonic weapons must be survivable, maneuverable and fielded in sufficient numbers to matter. That means not just performance, but affordable mass.  

We need hypersonics that are flexible, mission-agnostic and rapidly manufacturable. They must be adaptable to evolving threats, deployable across multiple domains, and available in numbers that make them a true deterrent. 

That shift requires a different industrial mindset. We cannot rely on 20-year development cycles; we need companies that build quickly and test often. We also need to incentivize those companies to move from R&D to production at a pace that matches the threat. Government offices such as the Air Force Research Laboratory are working closely with industry to provide these incentives and accelerate these processes, and this approach should be more widely adopted. 

That means embracing advanced manufacturing, additive processes, modular design, and flexible production lines. It means creating defense systems that can be built quickly and modified without retooling. It means restoring industrial depth. 

The American defense industry must become more agile, more innovative and more scalable. It must utilize private capital investment to enable shorter timelines, simplified supply chains and the rapid fielding of real hardware.  

Solving the hypersonic scaling challenge is not a technology problem. It is a production problem. And the good news is, we know how to solve it.

With the acquisition reform, the Pentagon is rebuilding the Arsenal of Freedom by expanding the industrial base, going directly to critical suppliers and driving affordable mass production. At the same time, Congress must ensure sustained funding and support industrial base expansion for emerging suppliers with field-ready capabilities, and industry must continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible and operate with an urgency that reinforces deterrence through strength.

The urgency of this problem is why Rep. Lamborn and Ursa Major are part of the Atlantic Council’s Hypersonic Capabilities Task Force, which puts forward actionable recommendations for how the United States can deliver hypersonics at operational scale. We encourage you to read the Task Force’s final report. 

Now it’s time to deliver affordable hypersonic capability at scale, and it is going to take us all. 

Doug Lamborn is a former member of the U.S. House of Representatives representing Colorado’s 5th District. He is a member of the Atlantic Council’s Hypersonic Capabilities Task Force. Dan Jablonsky is the CEO and chairman of Ursa Major, an industry member and sponsor of the Atlantic Council’s Hypersonic Capabilities Task Force. The company develops defense and propulsion systems used in hypersonic applications, solid rocket motors and space mobility. Ursa Major’s director of vehicle systems also serves as a member of the task force.