The Epstein files are a turning point in the Trump presidency, but it’s not over yet 

When HBO inevitably makes the definitive mini-series about the Trump presidency, the events of this past week will doubtless be one of the season finales. Watching the bill to release the Epstein files go from a stalled discharge petition with 217 signatures to passing both houses of Congress by a combined vote of 527-1 has got to be one of the most dramatic events in recent American political history. 

Or maybe it will be on Comedy Central, because watching President Trump sprint to get in front of the Epstein parade only to be run over by it is high comedy.

Trump spent months engaging in all-out political war to keep the files safely locked away in a Justice Department vault. At one point, he even “fired” his supporters for wanting the files released. In the hours before Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.) was sworn in and became the final signature on the House discharge petition, Trump had Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) brought to the Situation Room in the White House, where top officials tried to convince her to remove her signature. Trump also tried to phone Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) and lobby her too, but she “missed” his call, playing “phone tag” with the president until it was too late. 

But once the discharge petition became final and it became clear that a hundred or more House Republicans would vote to release the files, Trump changed his tune. Apparently on the theory that the important thing is to be obeyed, Trump publicly insisted he was completely in favor of the House bill and that he would happily sign it should it make it to his desk. 

The White House did not anticipate just how enthusiastically congressional Republicans would accept his offer. He probably envisioned — certainly House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) did — a lengthy legislative process, complete with Senate amendments designed to provide plenty of cover for withholding embarrassing information. Instead, the House and Senate sent the unamended bill to Trump’s desk in a matter of hours. Trump had no choice but to sign it. 

The new Epstein Files Transparency Act gives the Department of Justice 30 days to make everything “publicly available in a searchable and downloadable format.” Does that mean the unexpurgated Epstein files will be Donald Trump’s Christmas gift to journalists, conspiracy theorists and Never Trumpers everywhere? Don’t bet on it. I’m pretty sure that Trump’s about-face is less about accepting the inevitable and more about some sort of Plan B.  

Two days before he told House Republicans to vote to release the files, Trump ordered Attorney General Pam Bondi to launch criminal investigations into any Democrats connected with Epstein. Within hours, Bondi had assigned the new investigation to Jay Clayton, the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York. Reviewing the government’s massive trove of Epstein documents is going to be a real task for Clayton that might take quite a while, what with all his other work running one of the busiest U.S. attorney’s offices in the nation. Did I mention that the Epstein Files Transparency Act authorizes the Justice Department to withhold any files that “would jeopardize an active federal investigation or ongoing prosecution?”

On the other hand, Bondi publicly announced months ago that the Epstein files had been thoroughly reviewed and that they contained no “evidence that could predicate an investigation against uncharged third parties.” As a result, any efforts to withhold information because of a “federal investigation” will rightly be viewed as yet another cover-up, and will result in endless litigation. That’s already begun, since any number of news organizations must have already filed Freedom of Information Act requests regarding the files, and they will argue that the Epstein Files Transparency Act applies to their requests when they are denied. 

So this act is unlikely to result in a complete release of the Epstein files — certainly not within 30 days. But it does guarantee that the files are now the Trumpian equivalent of Hillary Clinton’s email server, a political albatross hanging around his neck that will continue to drive bad news cycles until the end of his term.

The saga also reveals the limits of Trump’s power. For the most part, congressional Republicans are not personally loyal to Trump. They don’t like him, they fear him — or rather, they fear Republican voters. And when Donald Trump loses control of his voters, as he did in the case of the Epstein files, he also loses control of congressional Republicans. 

If Trump were to be politically ruined by what’s in those files, few in Congress would shed a tear. There’s a reason the Senate passed the Epstein Files Transparency Act by unanimous consent rather than amending it. 

I don’t suggest that Trump’s political demise is imminent. That’s been predicted far too many times before. But he has tried to command his base and failed — and that weakens him. Couple that with his lame duck status and you have a recipe for a very rough ride, as ambitious Republicans try to work out what comes next.

There’s no one thing that’s going to remove Trump from politics, not even the Epstein files. But our future mini-series viewers will come to view this fight as the point where Trump’s presidency jumped the shark and his power and influence began to wane. Don’t get too excited, though — “Happy Days” ran for six more seasons.

Chris Truax is an appellate attorney who served as Southern California chair for John McCain’s primary campaign in 2008.