Just my luck man, I was shorting the market during the bull run that lasted almost 7 months. Everyday was dreadful and I couldn’t sleep properly so I exited those positions with huge loses just so I can try sleep for once. Took a break afterwards for a bit then MSTR caught my eye when they beat earning this quarter.

I figured why not try so a bought some in range 300s and I actually felt good about it since it was for long term hold. I added some more when in range 250s and again 200s. Now I’m all dry and have no funds to add to anything.

Past few weeks have just been a rollercoaster, I’m back to not sleeping well and overthinking reading countless articles and news and Reddit. Somehow I managed to catch the real bear market too after taking Ls during the bull run. I think I’m actually cooked really bad and it may take a very long time till I see some performance from MSTR and BTC. I’m over $50k deep in red. I just want the pain to stop already, will it?

Sorry guys I'm new here, bought MSTR several weeks ago and it hurts me a lot :( Currently I don't have plan to close the position, but just wondering is it possible that MSTR being removed from Nasdaq 100? And will it affect a lot?

Thanks and admire a lot if anyone could answer!

MSTR is going bankrupt. Saylor is a crook who popped the dot com bubble back in 2001. And he has popped them crypto bubble today. Get out now before you lose everything.

Last year when bitcoin was around 75-80k still MSTR was traded around 350 plus range

What the hell this Saylor is doing with stock?

He will buy all bitcoin and crash the stock to double digit

Cope or bullish?

This flush is about liquidity.

TL;DR:
Right now the problem isn’t “Bitcoin is bad” or “MSTR is broken”. The problem is that the pipes are empty: money has been sucked out of the system into government debt and money-market products. Almost nobody has spare cash to buy dips. That cannot last, because it chokes the economy and the government itself. The same people who drained the liquidity will be forced to turn it back on (rate cuts + QE + stimulus). When they do, new money will chase scarce assets. Bitcoin is the hardest asset in that lineup, and MSTR is a leveraged call option on that process. Retail is panic-selling, institutions are quietly buying. Breathe.

1. What’s actually going on?

Forget all the noise: the core issue is liquidity.

• The US is in a stagflation-ish situation:

  • Rates are high → growth and productivity struggle.

  • Inflation is still too high → people feel poorer, costs keep rising.

• At the same time, the interest bill on US government debt is exploding. High rates mean the US pays a ton just to roll its debt.

• The Treasury General Account (TGA) – basically the government’s checking account – has been stuffed with cash. That money is not circulating in markets.

• The Fed has been doing QT (Quantitative Tightening) – letting bonds roll off and pulling liquidity out of the system.

Net result:

The pipes in the financial system are almost dry.
Cash has been pulled out of 95% of people’s brokerage accounts and savings. Most people don’t have spare money to “buy the dip”.

Where is the money?

• Parked in Treasuries and money-market funds earning ~4–5%.

• Sitting with a small group of hedge funds, banks and the government, collecting interest instead of moving around.

That’s why everything feels heavy: there’s no marginal buyer.

2. Why this setup can’t last

This situation is self-defeating:

• High rates + tight liquidity →

  • markets bleed,

  • the economy slows,

  • tax revenues fall,

  • but the interest bill on the debt keeps rising.

At some point, the math stops working. Governments and central banks have two choices:

1. Keep tightening until something big breaks (credit events, unemployment spike, political chaos), or

2. Reverse course: cut rates, stop QT, and re-start some form of QE / fiscal stimulus.

Historically, they always choose option 2 in the end.

We’re already seeing the hints: talking about ending QT, preparing the ground for cuts, floating trial balloons about more stimulus. The reason is simple: you cannot run a modern debt-based system with empty pipes.

3. What “turning the liquidity back on” means

When they pivot, a few things usually happen:

• Rate cuts → money becomes cheaper, debt is easier to roll.

• QE / asset purchases → central banks buy bonds/equities, injecting fresh cash.

• Fiscal stimulus (“stimmies”) → governments send money out into the real economy.

Think of it like this:

Right now the pipes are empty. The pivot is opening the valves and blasting water back through the system.

Important nuance:
When new money is created, it doesn’t flow evenly. It tends to:

• Hit financial assets first (stocks, credit, real estate).

• Flow mainly to the top 15–20% who already own assets.

So you get:

• Higher prices for everything,

• And especially higher prices for scarce assets with a simple story.

4. Why Bitcoin is uniquely positioned in that world

Bitcoin is basically THE only major asset on earth with a hard-coded, provably limited supply.

When a lot of new money is sloshing around:

• Real estate can expand.

• Stocks can issue more shares.

• Governments can issue endless debt.

Bitcoin can’t.

On top of that, every cycle it gets more plugged into the legacy system:

• ETFs and structured products.

• Payment apps and fintechs settling with BTC or offering instant buy/send.

• Banks and brokers offering custody, loans against BTC, etc.

So when liquidity comes back:

• You have more pipes pointing at the same fixed asset,

• With more institutions able to buy it,

• While supply issuance is known and shrinking.

That’s why Bitcoin tends to act like a black hole for excess liquidity.

5. Who’s really selling vs buying in this flush?

No need to get too technical:

• The typical seller here is over-leveraged retail and smaller funds who:

  • borrowed too much,

  • get margin-called,

  • or just emotionally capitulate.

• The buyers are patient entities with long time horizons:

  • banks, institutions, sometimes even sovereigns and endowments.

So you’re seeing a transfer of coins and shares from weak hands to strong hands:

• Retail sells in panic.

• Institutions quietly add on cheap.

This is exactly what you’d expect at the ugly part of the cycle.

6. Where MSTR fits in

is here for one main reason: leverage to Bitcoin.

Strategy is basically:

A business with a giant, long-term Bitcoin treasury, who sells credit products backed by that bitcoin. They have very little debt - stop believing the bullshit comment saying otherwise and verify for yourself.

Key points:

• They’re not a hedge fund on 10x margin that gets liquidated on a bad day.

• Their debt profile is long-dated and very low, and their leverage (the credit products) never come due; they’ve survived several brutal drawdowns before.

• When Bitcoin eventually reprices higher in a new liquidity wave, MSTR’s equity moves like Bitcoin on steroids.

So:

• In a liquidity crunch (or in sideways chop, btw) ↓

  • BTC dumps,

  • MSTR dumps harder.

• In a liquidity flood ↑

  • BTC rips,

  • MSTR rips harder.

That’s the deal you implicitly accepted by owning MSTR. Volatility is not a bug; it’s literally the product.

7. How to mentally frame this (so you can sleep)

If you’re spiraling right now, a few blunt truths:

1. This is a macro liquidity problem, not a “Bitcoin is over” problem. The pipes are empty. They will have to refill them or watch the system break.

2. No one can time the exact day of the pivot. Anyone pretending they can is lying. But structurally, high debt + high rates is a mathematical dead end.

3. If you own MSTR/BTC with a long horizon, this part feels awful but is structurally normal. Every previous cycle had a moment where it “felt over” and the strong hands quietly loaded up.

4. If this level of volatility makes you physically sick, your position size is too big. That’s not a moral failing, it’s just risk management. Scale to a level where a -50% move is annoying, not life-destroying.

5. The key question isn’t “Where is the price next month?” but “Will global liquidity be larger in 3-4 years, and will some of it leak into a fixed-supply digital asset?” If your answer is yes, the rest is noise.

8. Final word

You don’t have to buy this entire macro thesis. You do need to understand the basic dynamic:

• Empty pipes now → pain, forced selling, ugly charts.

• Refilled pipes later → money searches for yield and safety in a world of debt and distrust. Scarce, neutral assets become the natural outlet.

• Bitcoin sits right in that crosshair.

• MSTR is intentionally built as a high-beta vehicle to that outcome.

None of this is guaranteed. Governments can screw it up, new risks can appear, black swans exist. This is one coherent way to read what’s happening, and why blind panic selling into forced-liquidity events is usually the wrong instinct.

Zoom out. Check your time horizon. Adjust your size if you must.
But don’t confuse a liquidity flush with a broken thesis.

Ultimately, if I'm right, it means that a small percentage of people (who navigate this well, not in fear) end up owning most of the assets. Does that sound familiar?

^{Not financial advice. Do your own research, know your risk tolerance, and stay solvent.}

Edit:

Before people dismiss actual, valuable info because it's formatted the way it is: I'm not native in English, and I draft my DD in Word in my own language to industry peers and friends/family - I then purposely run it through GPT to format it so it’s readable and not “one big block of messy text.” I’ve posted DDs like this here for years. If the structure bothers you, feel free to scroll past and go shitpost somewhere else. The formatting is there for clarity so I don’t have to manually dumb-explain things myself like reverse repo or the TGA when an LLM can present it far more cleanly for people who aren't used to economic terms.

I know everyone is doomscrolling right now.

Bitcoin is bleeding, the alts are dead, and gold boomers are taking victory laps. It feels broken.

Don’t take this as advice, noone REALLY knows what’s going to happen, but I just finished digesting the latest from both Luke Gromen (the "house is on fire" guy) and Lyn Alden (the "math is inevitable"/“there is no stopping this train”), and honestly, when you overlay their views, the picture for the next 3-6 months becomes pretty clear.

Both of them are amazing macro people. Here is the where they agree (they usually don’t) on what is actually happening between now and mid-2026.

1 - We are in the "Squeeze" before the "Sprint" Both Luke and Lyn agree on the destination: The money printer has to turn back on. The US government is running a deficit machine that physically cannot function without fresh liquidity.

The Bad News (Short Term): Right now, the Treasury is sucking all the air out of the room. They are draining liquidity to keep the bond market alive, and Bitcoin, like a canary in a coal mine, is feeling it first.

The Good News: This is temporary. The tank is empty.

2 - The next 6 months (Dec '25 - May '26) This is where they split.

Luke’s Take: He thinks we are walking into a brick wall. He’s predicting a market "whoosh down"/rapid crash in the first half of 2026. Why you may ask? Because politicians are reactive. They won't print the trillions needed until something breaks and scares them. If he’s right, expect a scary drop soon that forces the Fed’s hand.

Lyn’s Take: She thinks that is too dramatic. The Fed has new tools (like the repo facility) to prevent a total collapse. She sees a "stagflationary grind." The Fed will quietly, slowly, start expanding the balance sheet again (QE lite) without a big announcement. It won't be a crash, just a boring, choppy sideways bleed that shakes out the impatient for a little bit longer.

3 - Why Gold is pumping this year (and what that could mean for BTC)

This part finally clicked for me. Gold is up almost entirely because foreign governments (China, Russia) are buying it. They have to. They can’t buy US Treasuries anymore.

Let that sink in a bit.

Why not Bitcoin? Because it’s still being treated like a tech stock by Wall Street leverage junkies.

Butttt…… Gold front-running the dollar collapse is the guarantee that the liquidity is coming. Bitcoin is just lagging because it’s waiting for the actual flow of money (liquidity) rather than just the fear (sovereign buying).

If you listen to both of them, the most likely path is:

1. Maximum Boredom/Pain: Bitcoin likely chops or bleeds slowly into Q1 2026. The "4-Year Cycle" bros expecting a parabolic blow-off top right now are going to get wrecked.

2. The 180: Sometime between Jan and April, the liquidity strain breaks something. Either the Fed panics (Gromen) or they just quietly open the valve (Alden).

3. The Rip: Once the balance sheet actually expands (not just talk), BTC catches up to Gold violently.

TL;DR: The "smoke alarm" (Bitcoin) is screaming bloody murder, but the fire trucks w their liquidity hoses aren't here yet.

The next few months are going to be annoying.

The Fed is cornered, and whether they pivot due to a crash or a slow grind, the outcome is the same: higher liquidity in 2026.

Stop checking the price every 5 minutes. DCA and chill out. We are just in the waiting room and there are quite a few numbers ahead of us.

I keep reading of people buying dips when there’s no real support. The last support level was around $235, that broke. The next support is around $170, which is where it’s at now. But there’s a big price war between $100 and $170 back in 2024. The daily HA (Heikin Ashli) candles have been flat top since $347. Im not touching this until I start seeing flat bottom HA candles after a support level. Even then, I’m going only going to buy puts as long as the daily HA candles are flat bottoms.

You don’t have to do this or agree that this is the right approach, my main point is stop buying this stock without a clear view of what’s going on, it’s clearly trending down and will continue to do so until something gives investors confidence. Don’t just buy because the price looks good or you think there’s a bottom without any kind of confirmation. That’s how you lose money. Be patient have a plan/strategy.

Anyone else think the interview was absolutely hilarious? 😂 Saylor and Cardone are totally opposites. Saylor was getting so damn impatient with his interruptions 🤣🤣🤣. Made my morning lol.

I invested in MSTR months ago. I was in green a few times. Back then MSTR was tightly tied with BTC. But then BTC hit ATM and MSTR lagged. If I were green again I would sell. The narrative just donesn'e make sense to me anymore

Don't be Panician 414 @ 618 at these levels. If you know what I mean you get it.

MSTR owns 649,870 BTC ~287M shares outstanding = ~226,300 satoshis per share At $89k BTC → each MSTR share gives you ~$201 worth of Bitcoin exposure 🚀 but we're trading at $183. 😪

F is going on???

The structure of MSTR is designed in such a way that, as long as Bitcoin experiences an average annual gain of more than 10%, it will generate a higher return in USD terms than Bitcoin itself. This dynamic is particularly magnified when the company’s market NAV (net asset value) is relatively low at the time of entry.

This is not an opinion... it’s simply how MSTR is structured. Anyone who believes MSTR won’t outpace Bitcoin in the long term, while also expecting Bitcoin to continue to deliver 15+% average annual gains, is fundamentally misunderstanding the mechanics of the company’s structure.

On the other hand, if someone believes Bitcoin’s growth will slow down and won’t average 10% or more annually (over a decade), then it is a reasonable position to be bearish on MSTR.

However, it’s important to recognize that while mNAV compression is a concern for some (particularly right now at its extreme), it’s also a short-term focus that actually works to the advantage of MSTR’s long-term strategy. As the strategy continues to unfold with a clear, long-term focus and a fundamentally sound structure, those who focus on short-term fluctuations may miss the bigger picture. The company's approach is designed to weather these pressures and continue building long-term value, regardless of the momentary market sentiment.

I genuinely view anyone who doesn't understand this as a combination of lazy, and uninformed. Some are just learning... but some are projecting an understanding of this, while displaying pure ignorance.

$165 - $170 within a day or two? I am thinking that may be the near term bottom. Thoughts?

Are you doing covered calls and if so, what's your strategy to avoid giving back the shares when the stock inevitably explodes up again?

Not gonna lie — this one’s been tough.

My MSTR average is around $410, and it’s roughly 35% of my net worth. When I bought, I thought I was front-running the next Bitcoin run. Instead, I’ve been front-row for a masterclass in volatility and humility.

Bitcoin rips? MSTR yawns. S&P prints new highs? MSTR takes a nap. Saylor buys another billion? The market shrugs.

Meanwhile I’m sitting here explaining to friends that “it’s basically a leveraged Bitcoin ETF, but smarter” while quietly checking the chart at 2 a.m. like it’s a toxic ex.

But every time I think about selling, I remind myself:

Saylor isn’t playing for months — he’s playing for decades.

MSTR’s structure gives it tax and liquidity advantages that no Bitcoin ETF can match.

If Bitcoin truly goes where believers think it’s going, this ticker becomes a rocket booster.

So yeah — it’s been rough. But capitulating now feels like selling your lottery ticket because the draw is taking too long.

Until then, I’ll just keep nodding along every time Saylor tweets “hodl” — pretending it doesn’t sting just a little.

TL;DR: Holding MSTR through this chop is character development. When it finally runs, it’ll make sense why we suffered first.

Stock up 7% yesterday, followed by -9% today ???

Yes, I am a permabull and still have not sold my 110 shares at $378 despite the pain we have all experienced as of late.

I should say that I find some solace in the daily MSTR chart and seeing so many daily red candles, which can only mean capitulation in sentiment. Seeing it makes me believe that we are closer than ever to a reversal and that reversal will be symmetrical in speed and price action. It is my contention that we will see a reversal happen.

That reversal might happen no matter what but it will definitely materialise if the following events align:

1. NVIDIA guidance is blowout today and the entire market turns bullish again (AI fears dissipate and appetite for risk surges again, VIX drops).

2. FED cuts .25 despite recent hawkish tone (frankly I think some of these Fed governors saying cutting is misguided is about keeping their options open and cautioning markets to manage expectations so no one is surprised; still I would count more on a further cut than a pause.)

3. Liquidity concerns ease for market makers by early December, and FED reverse repo abates.

4. MSTR gets added to the SP500 - a wild card, I know, but it's possible if not probable.

Points 1-3 are more macro and would affect BTC as much as MSTR, while point 4 is more MSTR centered.

This is not financial advice (obvs) and people should do their own research. I have various calls contracts at various price points expiring at different dates. Will not show until they expire, due to evil eye.

Cheers.

What do you think would happen, once it becomes public that the US Gov is taking a stake in MSTR? What would happen to it's mNAV and underlying BTC?