China overtakes US in medical research amid science balance of power shift: top publisher
Country is ‘now global leader in scientific publishing and output’, Fred Fenter, chief executive editor of Swiss-based Frontiers, says
The days when Silicon Valley and leading American universities led the way in shaping the future of science may be ending, as China overtakes the United States not only in research output but in some cutting-edge fields, according to one of the world’s leading academic publishers.
“When I looked into data from Digital Science’s Dimensions database, I can see a widening gap between China and the United States in research output.
“By 2024, Chinese researchers had published 1.1 million articles, compared to 880,000 from their US counterparts,” Fred Fenter, chief executive editor of the Switzerland-based publisher Frontiers, said in an interview.
From 88% to 9% – stark data shows US decline, China’s rise in remote sensing research
Nation’s sustained funding tsunami over decades has shifted dominance in Earth observation science away from America
The year was 2015, and New York University professor Debra Laefer sat at her desk in Brooklyn reviewing yet another stack of research papers on remote sensing. As she scanned the authors’ affiliations, she paused – the same journals that once overflowed with names from American universities and Nasa labs had begun to publish discoveries from Beijing, Wuhan and Shanghai.
Over the next few years, the drips became a wave – and then a tsunami.
Back in the 1990s, the United States dominated remote sensing just as Silicon Valley dominates software today – producing nearly 90 per cent of all research in the field, while papers from China were virtually nonexistent.
But by 2023, China accounted for close to half of all remote sensing papers published globally, while the US share had shrunk to under 10 per cent.
The shift represents one of the most significant recent changes in global technological leadership, according to Laefer, a professor at the NYU Tandon School of Engineering and a faculty member at the university’s Centre for Urban Science + Progress. She published her findings in the journal Geomatics on September 12.
Remote sensing technology is the science of collecting information remotely through techniques such as laser scanning, imaging and hyperspectral imaging from ground, aerial, and even space platforms. It supports a range of critical applications, from autonomous driving to climate monitoring and national security.
“I started working in the field of remote sensing in 2002, and it has been my main area of research since 2006,” Laefer said in an interview.
About 10 years ago she began noticing an increasing number of papers from China – published research as well as studies she was asked to review.
“After a few years, it made me wonder if only I was seeing this, or if it was part of a bigger trend. That gave me the idea to study publication trends in this area,” she said.
Laefer’s group analysed the changes in the number of research papers in the field of remote sensing at the national level, compiling statistics on more than 126,000 scientific papers from 72 journals published globally from 1961 to 2023.
She found that before 1990, China’s output of papers in this field had been virtually zero. By 2000, its global share had reached only 4 per cent, on par with India.
However, the figure skyrocketed soon after, as China led remote sensing research with 47 per cent of global papers by 2023, while the US share fell from 88 per cent in the 1990s to just 9 per cent.
The performance of other countries has varied. Over the past 50 years, Germany has remained in the top 10 and currently sits in fourth place behind India. Both Spain and Australia are also now included in the top 10.
A key finding in the study, which bears significantly on international competitiveness, is the strong positive correlation between research funding levels and the resulting paper output.
Data from remote sensing papers published between 2021 and 2023 revealed a significant disparity: projects funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China accounted for more than 53 per cent of output, compared with 5 per cent attributed to US institutional funding.
The study’s analysis of the top 10 global research institutions funding remote sensing from 2011 to 2020 found that Chinese institutions held the top six spots.
The US had only two institutions on the list – Nasa and the National Science Foundation (NSF) – at the seventh and eighth spots, respectively, while two European institutions rounded out the top 10.
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In the 1990s, Nasa funded half of all the remote sensing research papers globally, but has since been overtaken by Chinese agencies.
Patent data included in the research indicates that China now accounts for most remote sensing technology patents filed globally.
Between 2021 and 2023, more than 43,000 patents containing the keywords “remote sensing” were filed worldwide. China accounted for most of them, a notable reversal from the near-monopoly of the US at the turn of the century.
According to Laefer’s research, academic publications in remote sensing have experienced exponential growth, from just over a dozen papers annually in the 1960s to more than 13,000 per year by 2023, a rise that far exceeds general scientific publishing trends.
China has also continued to invest in new remote sensing technologies – from artificial intelligence to machine learning and quantum computing – resulting in higher levels of expertise.
China can now conduct absolute ranging measurements in space with nanometre-level precision, according to an article published in August by Pan Jianwei, a leading figure in China’s quantum technology field. Precise positioning could now be achieved in 21 seconds with an accuracy of within 82nm over a distance of 113km (70 miles), he wrote.
The method is expected to provide technical support for large-scale high-precision space research projects, such as space telescope arrays and satellite gravity measurements.
Asked if the US could regain ground, Laefer said: “In the 1970s the US stopped building tunnels, the US government stopped supporting research in this area, and there were almost no graduate students who studied this topic.
“Twenty years later, the US had major tunnelling needs but had lost most of its native expertise.”
As a result, she said, most tunnels were built by European companies. Nearly 30 years later, the US has recovered much of its expertise, but this was done by having junior American engineers work under senior European engineers, Laefer noted.
“The US still has not recovered from the lack of government research funding in the area. Thus, the US is unlikely to become an innovation leader in the field any time soon.”
“My guess is that remote sensing in the US will go the same way – regaining industrial competency but not leading to major innovation, unless there is a significant reprioritisation of government funding,” Laefer said.
“In the current political environment, where all government research funding is being drastically cut, I would be very surprised to see a major investment in remote sensing or any other area.”
