Is this the end of Chuck Schumer?

Democrats have generally been unable to agree on much over the past year. But they now seemingly agree on one thing: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) must go. 

Indeed, it appears that Schumer’s leadership position is increasingly untenable as he comes under fire from both moderates and his left flank. 

Democrats’ commentary on the five-term senator and nine-term representative underscores how precarious Schumer’s position is.  

After eight Democrats broke with their party to reopen the government, critiques of Schumer’s leadership were many. They included the simple demand, “He must resign.” He was also accused of trying to “screw over” the party. Schumer was also held up as “another example of why we need new leadership.” And that’s just what Democrats in Congress had to say.

Moreover, according to the Wall Street Journal, “at least 11 House Democrats, 11 progressive nonprofits and six Democratic Senate candidates have called on Mr. Schumer to step down as minority leader.” 

In other words, Schumer has managed to alienate virtually everyone in his party. Progressives blame him for not being strong enough to rein in the “defectors” while moderates “grouse that he (Schumer) engineered the longest shutdown ever for nothing.” 

At a time when voters of both parties, but particularly Democrats, are upset with the gerontocracy in Washington, the ground under Schumer’s feet appears shakier than at any point in his long career.

Polling data continues to underscore the fact that this is likely Schumer’s end.  

According to CNN, with his minus-4 point net favorability among Democratic voters, Schumer is the least popular Democratic Senate leader since polls began asking this question in 1985. 

The same poll suggests that if Schumer were up for election today, he would likely suffer a historic defeat in a primary against Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who is rumored to be preparing a Senate run. 

Among New York Democrats, Ocasio-Cortez’s net favorability was a significant 30 points higher than Schumer’s (plus-46 points versus plus-16). 

That confirms the result of a May poll showing Ocasio-Cortez winning a hypothetical matchup by 21 points (54 percent to 33 percent) among likely Democratic voters. 

To be sure, Schumer is not up for reelection until 2028, when he will be weeks shy of his 78th birthday. Whether he risks a primary challenge — which he’d likely lose — or decides to retire, the result is the same: The end of Chuck Schumer.

In many ways, that sets Schumer up as a lame duck minority leader at the exact moment Democrats find themselves at a crossroads. Devoid of a true leader, likely to retake the House but remain a minority in the Senate and struggling with historically low popularity, Democrats would benefit from a strong, steady voice in Congress’s upper chamber. 

Instead, unless there is an intra-party coup, Schumer will be an ineffective leader, unable to corral fellow Democratic senators in order to mount any semblance of opposition. However, if the House does not break for Democrats, Schumer’s relevancy will fall even lower as neither Democrats nor Republicans respect his ability to command his party in the Senate.  

Regardless of how or when it comes, Schumer’s demise is largely a consequence of his own actions. Having failed to adapt to the growing power of his party’s left flank, Schumer repeatedly tried pleasing both wings of the Democratic Party — moderates and progressives — yet often ended up with nobody happy and everybody angry.  

Case in point is how he handled the war between Israel and Hamas, as antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment surged within his own party.  

Attempting to reconcile his career-long support for Israel and American Jews, by spring of 2024 — shortly after he published a book on antisemitism — Schumer took to the Senate to demand that Israel’s democratically elected prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu be deposed. 

That alienated a significant number of his Jewish constituents, coming as it did in the middle of a war forced upon Israel. But it also scored no points with progressives, who continued criticizing his leadership. 

That embodies the factors behind Schumer’s downfall. Facing an increasingly powerful and aggressive left-wing, the old-school Democrat stood no chance.  

Determined to hold on to the power he took when Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) stepped down, every time he placated the left, he lost standing with moderates, who make up the majority of Democrats’ Senate caucus. 

Conversely, when he was pragmatic and led from the middle, he came under attack from progressives who knew he was extremely malleable and would cave to their demands. 

Ultimately, whether or not Schumer lasts as leader until 2028 or is taken down by fellow Democrats, his time has almost certainly come to an end. When a longtime senator is reviled by both wings of his own party, the message is loud and clear. 

Had Schumer been more focused on delivering Democratic priorities and not merely trying to appease his left-flank, perhaps the end of his career would have been more noble than the political beating he now faces.  

Douglas E. Schoen is a political consultant who served as an adviser to President Bill Clinton and to the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. He is the author of “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”