Xi Jinping failed to derail Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan, but he's still beating the drums of a 'defensive' war

As Nancy Pelosi delivered her address to Taiwan's parliament, Chinese warships were moving to positions around the island to commence the biggest and closest sabre-rattling exercise Beijing has ever undertaken.

Over several days, Chinese warships will fire missiles to the east, conduct long-range firing to the west in the Taiwan Strait and undertake joint aerial drills in areas encroaching into Taiwan's territorial waters.

One Taiwanese analyst warned the island's military would have no choice but to respond if the People's Liberation Army (PLA) ships really did enter Taiwan's waters.

On Wednesday, Taiwan's cabinet said the military had increased its alertness level.

But China's aggressive response to Pelosi's visit is a strategy the superpower has used before.

The Chinese military carried out similar exercises 25 years ago in response to the last visit of a US house speaker, but this time the PLA troops will be closer and far better equipped.

Combined with cyber attacks targeting Taiwanese government websites as Pelosi flew in, Beijing is showcasing its capability to humble the island's defences.

But for all the drills, the warnings, the threats and militaristic propaganda, Xi Jinping looks like a bit of a paper tiger.

Nancy Pelosi called China's bluff

During her speech in Taiwan on Wednesday, Pelosi recalled a promise made by the US to the island 43 years ago that it would "always stand with Taiwan".

"Today our delegation — of which I'm very proud — came to Taiwan to make it unequivocally clear we will not abandon our commitment to Taiwan and we are proud of our enduring friendship," she said.

The significance of that commitment, delivered in Taiwan, was not lost on those watching.

China's President had mobilised his country's massive diplomatic, state media and military arms to stop Pelosi's visit and directly warned the US President in a call this week "not to play with fire" over Taiwan.

But ultimately he was stared down by an 82-year-old veteran of America's rough and tumble domestic politics.

A popular meme has been circulating in recent days about a supposed Russian proverb called China's Final Warning, which is based on the Communist army issuing hundreds of "final warnings" to the US during the Cold War but not following up.

True or not, it's struck a chord.

The North Korean-style tendency of China's Communist Party to constantly threaten, warn and make unfulfilled promises of consequences has dulled many citizens in Taiwan to the constant conflict talk.

"I think China's response falls fully within the realm of what commentators were expecting," Jessica Drun, a Taiwan analyst with the Washington DC-based Atlantic Council, said.

That includes the economic targeting of key food export industries as part of China's measures.

But it's fair to say there was palpable excitement on the other side of the Taiwan Strait about China finally readying to confront the United States strongly over Taiwan.

China frames Pelosi visit almost as a US invasion

Chinese government media whipped the nation into a frenzy, with news sites spitting out incremental updates on Pelosi's flight path.

Headlines screamed about her and other US politicians making themselves enemies of 1.4 billion people.

Social media was awash with videos of tanks and missiles being moved, amid headlines and propaganda pieces declaring China's forces were preparing for combat and ready for battle.

"Beating the drums of war" would be an understatement.

The newspapers within China framed Pelosi's visit almost as an American invasion of a part of China that must be repelled.

Never mind the democratically elected President who invited the US House Speaker to Taiwan, or the rival military across the strait defending the island from the PLA.

Their perspective was cast aside or written off as separatists to be opposed.

The narrative frames China's actions as defensive, and the US — through its alleged continuous flouting of previous agreements and its own One China Policy — as the aggressor who will one day light the spark.

Some observers fear that within China, Xi Jinping is step by step normalising the notion that conflict will happen as his 2049 deadline to take Taiwan ticks down.

And there was plenty of nationalism circulating on Chinese social media celebrating the aggressive tone, although censorship and "public opinion guidance" work tend to dissuade the voicing of more moderate opinions.

Not an ideal time for Xi to 'appear weak'

Some experts write it all off as Xi posturing during the sensitive run-up period to the next party congress, where he's widely expected to extend his rule.

"It seems a lot of this is [an] attempt to manufacture public support or a coherent narrative on Taiwan, especially at a time when Xi can't appear weak with the 20th party congress coming up," Drun said.

Others point to China's sluggish economy and frustrations over constant COVID-19 restrictions to explain why Xi sought to focus attention elsewhere by setting such high expectations of an unprecedented response.

If Beijing's heavy response is linked to Xi's immediate problems, that may provide some comfort that a crisis isn't imminent.

But in the years ahead, with Xi likely staying at the helm of China's government, the domestic pressure he's helped to whip up will only intensify.

This failure to stop Pelosi's very public show of support to Taiwan is fuelling nationalistic anger that China's growing might isn't being respected.

And Kuo warns the more Xi pushes, the more likely confrontation becomes.

"If Chinese vessels really enter Taiwan's airspace and territorial waters, I believe Taiwan has no choice but to react," he said.

"China knows our bottom lines very well, and I don't believe the PLA will do exercises this week as their maps show."

We'll find out in the coming days.

Play video.

Has Video Duration: 2 minutes 8 seconds.

Watch 2m 8s