Democrats look set to sweep election victories in Virginia, New Jersey and New York, new polls show.
The most notable shift before people go to the polls on Tuesday comes in Virginia’s Attorney General race, where Democrat Jay Jones has surged to a narrow lead, overcoming prior deficits in other polls.
Why It Matters
The polling results suggest a potentially transformative outcome for Democrats, who are looking to reinforce their power in key states ahead of the 2026 midterms.
If results hold, the party could consolidate influence in both statewide executive offices and high-profile municipal positions.
What To Know
In Virginia, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger holds a significant 11-point lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, polling at 55 percent to 44 percent, according to the latest Emerson College/The Hill survey.
More notably, the race for Attorney General, previously seen as a toss-up or leaning Republican, has shifted. Democrat Jay Jones now leads incumbent Republican Jason Miyares 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, with Jones' advantage increasing to 51 percent to 49 percent when leaners are included.
Some 880 likely voters were surveyed between October 30 and 31, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points.
In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill is narrowly ahead of Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the governor’s race, leading 50 percent to 48 percent when leaners are included, according to Emerson College polling. Voters continue to identify the economy as the top issue, with 52 percent citing it as their primary concern.
Among likely voters, the split is 49 percent for Sherrill and 48 percent for Ciattarelli. Some 1,000 people were questioned between October 25 and 27, with a +/- 3-percentage point margin of error.
Meanwhile, in New York City, Democrat Zohran Mamdani has expanded his lead in the mayoral race, polling at 50 percent compared to Andrew Cuomo’s 25 percent, with 21 percent backing Republican Curtis Sliwa. Mamdani’s support has grown by seven points since the previous month and he now leads Cuomo by a wide margin across demographic groups.
“Mamdani appears to have built a coalition across key demographics,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling said. “He continues to have a base of young voters; 69 percent of voters under 50 support him, whereas 37 percent of voters over 50 support Mamdani.”
Some 640 people were surveyed between October 25 and 27 with a +/- 3.8 percentage point margin of error.
What People Are Saying
Former President Barack Obama wrote on X about the Virginia election: “Virginia – Abigail Spanberger cares about your freedoms, she will fight for your rights, and she will work every day to make your life a little bit better.”
Republican Jack Ciattarelli said in a bid for support on X: “The momentum is real — and it’s all thanks to YOU.
“Let’s finish strong, New Jersey. Bring your friends, family, and neighbors — and make sure EVERYONE gets out to VOTE on Tuesday, November 4th!”
What Happens Next
All eyes are now on turnout on Tuesday. While early voting trends favor Democrats in several states, final outcomes will hinge on Election Day participation.
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