Deadly Alaska Storm Hit After a Month of Wider Forecast Errors
Scientists say outages at federal monitoring sites in the state may have contributed to confusion over the storm’s predicted track.
A damaged home after Typhoon Halong in Kotlik, Alaska, on Oct. 12.
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Days after a catastrophic storm surprised communities in Alaska, leaving at least one person dead, new data shows increased mistakes in weather forecasting models compared with a year ago.
The models, which are used by weather agencies around the world, rely on local measurements contributed by forecast offices in the US and abroad. Three scientists who reviewed performance data from this fall said outages in the US monitoring system may have contributed to a lag in detecting a wild swing in the Alaska storm’s projected track, which led to the forced evacuation of hundreds of people in one of the largest airlifts in the state’s history.
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