Is Asean’s ‘meek diplomacy’ sufficient to end Myanmar conflict?
Asean’s individual members will decide whether to send observers to monitor what critics say will be a ‘sham election’ in Myanmar
“Myanmar was lower on the agenda at the summit compared with other pressing regional economic and strategic issues, such as trade, security cooperation and managing US-China competition,” Vu Lam, a policy analyst and Asean observer, told This Week in Asia.
“Consequently, the political will and capital to address the Myanmar issue were understandably inadequate.”
It called for “all parties and stakeholders … to de-escalate violence and stop targeted attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure and enhance trust-building efforts”, alongside the full implementation of an expanded ceasefire as reaffirmed by an earlier statement put out by the bloc in May.
Myanmar’s junta has largely ignored the five-point consensus, prompting Asean to ban the country’s military leadership from most of its meetings. Instead, Naypyidaw has been sending non-political representatives to Asean’s meetings, including at this year’s summit.
The impasse between Asean and Myanmar is a reflection of consensus being the bloc’s sole instrument with which to address the crisis, according to Moe Thuzar, Myanmar studies programme coordinator at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
While Myanmar had invited Asean to send observers to the polls, the bloc did not reach a consensus at its recently concluded summit and reportedly left its members to make decisions on the mission individually.
“Asean will not take a common position, because in our discussions, everyone has a different idea,” he said on Tuesday.
According to Thuzar, the move likely reflects Asean’s apprehension about the election, with the result “unlikely to be automatically accepted as a fait accompli” by the bloc.
Myanmar has been plagued by civil unrest and conflict over the past four years, leaving more than 7,000 killed, 30,000 imprisoned and hundreds of thousands more displaced.
The junta-led government controls less than half of the country, with critics accusing the military of increasing human rights violations.
At the Asean summit, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres urged the junta government to focus on providing aid to its people instead of its election. “I don’t think anybody believes that those elections will be free and fair,” he said. “I don’t think anybody believes those elections will contribute to the solution of the problems of Myanmar.”
‘Meek diplomatic response’
Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate at the University of Nottingham Malaysia who specialises in Southeast Asian politics, warned that Myanmar was “on the verge of a sham election” and said Asean “should have fundamentally condemned the polls”.
“Asean failed the Myanmar people again, choosing a diplomatic path rather than a principled one that put pressure on the junta … Asean is going through the motions and being played by the junta who use Asean for legitimacy,” she told This Week in Asia.
Welsh said the five-point consensus was “no longer relevant”, adding that it was an “excuse to engage, but the substance of engagement has yet to meaningfully address the crisis”.
With the Philippines taking over as Asean chair in 2026, all eyes will be on Manila and its handling of the Myanmar crisis.
Thuzar said that the Philippines was likely to seek to maintain the diplomatic momentum from 2025, including a proposal initiated by Asean this year for a more inclusive and comprehensive engagement with Myanmar stakeholders, such as the appointment of a special envoy.
But the Philippines may face similar constraints as Asean’s current chair Malaysia, according to Lam.
“There are stronger measures available. However, without broader shifts in Asean cohesion and consensus-building, meaningful progress is beyond any single chair’s effort,” he said.
Apart from installing a special envoy, Welsh urged Asean to ensure more inclusive representation of Myanmar’s opposition forces and take a harder line against the junta.
“Let’s see if the Philippines has any democratic principles, as Malaysia chose to meet the junta and not defend the Myanmar people adequately,” she said.
“They also allowed the scam economy to deepen, putting the region and the world more at risk. Again, a meek diplomatic response has caused harm.”
UN chief urges Myanmar junta to focus on boosting aid, forget about election
Antonio Guterres has also called on all parties to support Asean’s push for an immediate end to the conflict in Myanmar
Myanmar’s junta has been widely pilloried for pressing on with the election starting this December, while it continues to bomb civilians in a civil war that has killed thousands and displaced more than 3.5 million people.
“I don’t think anybody believes that those elections will be free and fair,” he told reporters. “I don’t think anybody believes those elections will contribute to the solution of the problems of Myanmar.”
Myanmar’s civil war stems from a 2021 coup by a military which was unhappy with being routed in an election a few months earlier.
It has seen the country’s economy collapse as the junta struggles to regain control over most of its borderlands from pro-democracy rebels and ethnic militias.
The coup also led to an unprecedented ban on Myanmar’s top leadership from attending any official meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, including this week’s summit in Kuala Lumpur.
The regional bloc, which is normally allergic to confrontation on matters involving each other’s domestic affairs, acted after the junta failed to implement five measures it agreed to in order to stop the conflict. Those include an immediate end to the violence, allowing aid in, the appointment of an Asean special envoy and a pathway to peace talks.
In a joint statement on Sunday, Asean’s leaders said any plan by the junta to hold a national election must make sure that it would be “free, fair, peaceful, transparent, inclusive and credible”.
“We emphasise that the cessation of violence and inclusive political dialogue must precede elections,” the statement read, adding that Asean reaffirmed that a resolution of Myanmar’s civil war must continue to be guided by the five-point consensus.
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Hundreds flee Myanmar’s scam compounds for Thailand
Guterres said he was “appalled” by what was happening in Myanmar, and urged all parties to support Asean’s push for an immediate end to the conflict.
“The people of Myanmar are counting on our collective support. Let’s deliver it,” he said.
There are also glaring practical problems with holding elections in a country lacerated by war.
Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing had admitted earlier this month that polls could not be held in the whole country “due to various reasons” despite a pledge to make the contest “strong and competitive”.
The Union Election Commission, appointed by the junta, in August said the first phase of the election would be held in 102 out of 330 townships – mostly in Yangon, Naypyidaw and other central military heartlands.
But key allies China and, to a lesser degree, Russia have voiced support for the election, banking on the junta to regain its footing after four years of war that has seen the strategically crucial nation pitched into violence and chaos.
