The Parcl OPEN tracker suggests that revenue should be at least $885M in 3Q25 which is above the high end of management's guidance range issued on August 5th: $800-875M and consensus expectations of $856M (Bloomberg). Our data suggests the company sold 2,433 homes in the period at an average sales price of $364.5K. We estimate that the company acquired 996 homes in 3Q at an average purchase price of $280K.

Thus far in the 4th quarter-to-date (through October 21st) we are tracking that OPEN has sold 339 homes at an average sale price of $370K, implying revenue of $125.5M. If this pace continued throughout the quarter it would imply revenue of ~$550M in 4Q. This compares to management's “soft guidance” of a "similar sequential decline in 4Q versus 3Q", which would imply a 4Q revenue outlook of ~$437.5M (if 4Q were to decline at the same pace as 3Q, -47.6%). It's important to note that there is seasonality to consider, as the 4Q holiday season is typically met with a slowdown in transaction activity. Nonetheless, it seems like there is ample cushion versus expectations with respect to revenue. Our data suggests the company has acquired 40 homes in 4QTD at an average purchase price of $347K. Perhaps the most important dynamic to consider is that 4Q is the first full quarter with a new CEO; as such, fundamentals may be tertiary to management's refreshed strategy.

Lastly, below we provide an on-market inventory snapshot (as of 10/21/25):

Total homes on market: 2,044

Average listing price: 392,362

Average price cut: 8.7%

To track 4Q live with daily updates, subscribe to our OPEN tracker.

Methodology Note: Analysis reflects transactions captured for 3Q25 as of October 21, 2025. Due to potential recording delays in official government sales data, particularly for off-market and portfolio activity, our estimates may be conservative and the actual 3Q results may be biased upward versus our estimate.