US–China Are Divorcing. The Settlement Will Reshape Global Business.
People get too caught up in the daily drama of the U.S.–China relationship — the tariffs, the summits, the “breakthroughs” that never last.
The decoupling isn’t theoretical anymore — it’s operational. Supply chains are shifting, capital flows are splitting, and CEOs now talk more about resilience than efficiency.
To me, this isn’t a lovers’ spat. It’s a divorce in progress.
After forty years of marriage, they’ve decided they can’t stand each other. The lawyers are in, and the accountants are dividing the joint assets — supply chains, tech, capital, markets.
A couple of beliefs of mine:
1.They’re not getting back together. This was a marriage of convenience and necessity — different values, systems, and goals. It worked for a while; now it doesn’t.
2.Divorce is messy. There’ll be drama, retaliation, and moments that look like reconciliation. But the ending’s already written.
Most corporates have just woken up to the reality — and some still refuse to accept it (wink wink, Germans). They see the signs: tariffs, export bans, investment restrictions. Yet few are acting on them. Many still hope it’s just a rough patch. It isn’t.
The real question now isn’t if the divorce happens — it’s how your business will live with it.
•Where are your supply chains rooted, and can they survive custody battles?
•How exposed are you to regulatory crossfire — export bans, data rules, sanctions?
•Where will your capital come from when one side shuts its markets?
•How do you position your brand when each camp demands loyalty?
Inside boardrooms, the divorce is already shaping strategy. CFOs are running dual cost models — one for each camp. General Counsels are spending more time decoding export rules than drafting M&A term sheets. For many multinationals, geopolitics has become a permanent line item on the balance sheet.
Every divorce creates winners and losers. Southeast Asia, India, and Mexico are taking order books once bound for China. Defense and rare earth companies are thriving. But firms that built their fortunes as the bridge between both sides now find that bridge burning from both ends.
This is where scenario play becomes essential. The companies that thrive won’t be the ones reacting to headlines, but those rehearsing different futures — testing assumptions, mapping contingencies, and preparing to pivot before they’re forced to.
The marriage is over. The paperwork’s ongoing.
The settlement will reshape global business — and only those who’ve rehearsed the next act will still have a role in it.