• There was no jobs report today because of the government shutdown.

• But if you're looking for signs the labor market is struggling, there have been plenty recently.

• Hiring is slowing, and firing plans have accelerated to their fastest pace since 2020.

If you're looking for something to fill the jobs-report-sized hole in your life this morning, look no further.

Just because the shutdown has ground the government's economic-data reporting to a halt doesn't mean there's no new info to digest. One look at the private reports out this week provide a strong-enough snapshot of the labor market.

Unfortunately, the picture isn't pretty.

Earlier this week, data from ADP showed the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September, badly missing expectations. Markets also took in a slew of weak employment data on Thursday that suggested the job market is stumbling.

It's a balancing act for markets. Investors want to see data that supports the case for more Fed rate cuts but doesn't weaken enough to suggest a full-blown recession.

Here are the latest non-government-supplied warning signs the job market has flashed recently:

Job openings are falling

There were 17 million job openings in September. That's down 17.2% year-over-year, according to data from the workforce intelligence firm Revelio Labs.

Seasonally-adjusted active job postings were at their lowest level in at least three years, the firm said.

Job openings saw the steepest drop in the professional and business services industry, which saw openings decline 31.4% year-over-year. That was followed by the government sector and "other services," with openings in both areas down 30.5% year-over-year.

"Heightened uncertainty is prompting firms and investors to delay new projects and slow hiring, softening labor demand. Looking ahead, fewer postings point to even weaker job growth," Revelio's report said.

Hiring plans are running at the slowest pace since the Great Recession

Employers have announced plans to hire 204,939 workers so far this year, according to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, down 58% compared to the same period last year.

That's the lowest number of workers US employers have said they planned to hire over the first nine months of the year since 2009, the outplacement firm said.

The drop is largely due to subdued seasonal hiring. Challenger said it recorded just 100,800 seasonal hiring plans last month, a fraction of the 401,850 seasonal hires that were planned by October of last year.

"With lower consumer confidence and tariff pressures ahead, we predict the hiring season will be muted," Andy Challenger, the senior vice president at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said of hiring in the retail sector, which makes up a significant portion of new employment heading into the holidays.

With recession threats rising and tariffs beginning to settle into the bottom line, retailers are expected to sharply reduce their seasonal hiring plans in the fourth quarter, reducing the anticipated number to its lowest level in 16 years.

A report from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas predicts employers will add less than half a million jobs in the fourth quarter. Last year that number was 543,000.

“Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflationary pressures linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires,” Andy Challenger, a senior vice president and workplace expert at Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement.

The news comes as the overall job market in the U.S. is growing soft . Employers added only 22,000 jobs in August, which was far short of expectations.

The one hope for seasonal hiring comes down to the consumer. Despite the froth in the stock market and the threat of an AI bubble, consumers have continued to spend money at stores. Should they lean into that this holiday season, retailers could be forced to increase their hiring late in the year. At present, though, retailers aren't betting on that surge.

Several retailers that normally would have announced their seasonal hiring plans by now, including Target , Macy's and Burlington, have not announced precise hiring plans. Among those who have, the numbers are either equal to last year or slightly lower.

Tariffs have driven up the cost of several categories, according to the latest Consumer Price Index. Household goods, for instance, were 10% more expensive than they were in the pre-tariff days. That could be starting to have an impact. A PwC report from earlier this month said shoppers are planning to spend 5% less on holiday gifts, travel and entertainment this year. That's the first decline of note since 2020.

Key Takeaways

• The job market showed signs of weakness, according to a pair of reports from private companies, with one indicating that hiring is on track to be its lowest for any year since the Great Recession.
  

• The data from ADP and Challenger, Gray & Christmas typically plays second fiddle to official government data, but that's not being produced during the government shutdown that began on Wednesday.
  

• Officials at the Federal Reserve may need to rely on private data when deciding later this month whether to boost the job market by lowering interest rates.
  

Reports from private companies painted a by-now-familiar picture of the job market in September: few were hiring, few were firing, and the labor market overall looked a little shaky.

Employers announced 54,064 job cuts in September, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a consulting firm, said Thursday. That was a 37% decrease from August.

However, the September numbers contributed to 202,118 cuts in the third quarter, the most since 2020. Employers planned to add 204,939 jobs in the year through September, the fewest since 2009.

Economic uncertainty, tariffs, inflation, federal job cuts, and the adoption of artificial intelligence were all hurting job growth, economists at Challenger said in a press release.

What This Means For The Economy

The private data indicate that the job market is faltering, making it harder for workers to find jobs and increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months

The Challenger report was one of the few pieces of jobs data available to economists, financial markets, and officials at the Federal Reserve in the coming days. A government shutdown that began on Wednesday has delayed the release of the usual official reports on the job market. A weekly report on unemployment insurance claims was delayed Thursday morning, and a monthly report on the job market is unlikely to be published Friday morning.

Because of this, information from private companies like Challenger and payroll provider ADP may receive more attention than usual from officials at the Federal Reserve, who will meet later in October to decide whether to rescue the job market by cutting interest rates.

The private data showed the labor market still slowing down, on the heels of a surprise downturn over the summer. The economy lost 32,000 private sector jobs in September, according to ADP's monthly report released Wednesday.

Combined, the private data kept concerns about the health of the job market alive, and put more pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. Financial markets were pricing in near certainty the Fed would cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point in October, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data. They're also estimating there's a 90% chance central bankers will do the same in December

Retailers around the U.S. are expected to sharply reduce the number of workers they add for the holidays, a shift from their usual seasonal hiring sprees to help cope with the annual crush of customers.

Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas attributes the weak demand for extra workers this year to companies bearing the heavier costs from U.S. tariffs on foreign goods, as well as on rising inflation and their growing reliance on technology to improve efficiency.

The firm expects retail hiring fo the holidays to fall to its lowest level since 2009, when the economy was emerging from a recession caused by the global financial crisis.

"Seasonal employers are facing a confluence of factors this year: tariffs loom, inflationary pressures linger, and many companies continue to rely on automation and permanent staff instead of large waves of seasonal hires," Andy Challenger, workplace expert and senior vice president of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said in a statement.

The weaker seasonal hiring forecast comes as the U.S. job market is faltering. Employers added only 22,000 jobs in August, falling far short of economists' expectations.

Inflation has also edged up in recent months. The Consumer Price Index, which in March had sunk to an annual rate of 2.3%, in August rose at a 2.9% pace from a year ago.

In the last quarter of 2024, retailers added just over 543,000 seasonal workers, down roughly 4% compared to 2023. Companies are projected to add fewer than 500,000 jobs during the last three months of 2025, according to Challenger. Such a figure would mark the smallest seasonal gain in 16 years.

Challenger pointed to fewer seasonal hiring announcements than usual from retailers as a sign they plan to hire fewer workers for the holidays.

"While we could see a late hiring push if holiday sales surprise to the upside, the cautious pace of announcements so far suggests that companies are not betting on a big seasonal surge. This year may be more about doing more with less," Challenger said.

Tariffs are causing some consumers to pull back on spending, recent data shows. An August survey of consumers from the University of Michigan found that most U.S. adults plan to spend less on goods that see tariff-driven price hikes. Just 24% of consumers surveyed said they expected to spend as usual on items that rise substantially in price, according to the report.

Tariffs have already driven up the cost of some categories of goods for U.S. consumers. For example, in August, audio equipment rose in price by 12% compared to one year earlier,  while the cost of household goods rose 10%, the latest Consumer Price Index report shows.

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter.

Dive Brief:

• More than 17,000 job cuts have been directly attributed to artificial intelligence so far this year, with the tech industry leading the way, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said in a recent report.

• Most of the cuts were announced in the second half of the year. In September alone, Challenger tracked 7,000 AI-driven job cuts.

• “Tech firms are undergoing incredible disruption with AI that is not only costing jobs, but also making it difficult to land positions, particularly for entry-level engineers,” Andy Challenger, a senior vice president at the Chicago, Illinois-based outplacement firm, said in the report. “Tech leaders have stressed that AI is changing the nature of work, and more companies are requiring their teams be trained on it.”

Dive Insight:

Salesforce is among the companies that have directly attributed massive job cuts to AI-related initiatives in recent months.

In an August podcast interview, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said the company reduced its customer service headcount from 9,000 to about 5,000 after AI agents began handling conversations with customers.

Overall, companies across sectors have announced 946,426 job cuts so far this year, the highest level year-to-date since 2020 when 2.1 million were announced, according to the Challenger report.

The Department of Government Efficiency has been the leading driver, cited in 293,753 planned layoffs so far this year, Challenger said. This includes direct reductions to the federal workforce and its contractors.

Market and economic conditions are the second-most cited reason for workforce reductions, responsible for 208,227 cuts year to date. “This reflects employers’ continued response to economic uncertainty, inflation, tariffs, and shifting demand across sectors,” the report said.

Closings of stores, units or plants have led to 144,652 layoffs so far this year, up from 97,590 during the same period last year. Restructuring efforts have resulted in 100,450 job cuts, while bankruptcies accounted for another 37,590 layoffs, up from 10,700 through September 2024.

Technological updates, including automation and “possibly” AI implementation, have led to 20,219 job cuts in 2025, Challenger said. Another 17,375 were explicitly attributed to AI, including 7,000 announced in September.

The number of layoffs directly tied to AI has skyrocketed since a report released by Challenger in early July.