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Next Japanese Prime Minister

$2,146,069 Vol.

Sanae Takaichi 98.7%

Election called <1%

Shinjirō Koizumi <1%

Yoshihiko Noda <1%

Sep 14Sep 21Sep 280%20%40%60%80%100%

OUTCOME

% CHANCE

Rules

This market will resolve according to the next appointed Prime Minister of Japan, succeeding Shigeru Ishiba.

Any PM formally appointed by the Japanese Emperor will qualify.

If no new PM is appointed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No new PM”.

If early general elections are called before the new PM has officially been appointed, this market will resolve to “Election called”.

The resolution of this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume

$2,146,069

End Date

Apr 30, 2026

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Beware of external links.

she will be first women of Japanese has prime minister
indigo2go

42m ago

japanese will catch a women and it will be right
Trump endorsed right wing conservative Sanae Takaichi is poised to be the next Prime Minister of Japan
BREAKING: Ultraconservative politician Sanae Takaichi has won the leadership election for Japan's largest party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in an upset. She has been described as "far right" by other members of her party and is a member of Nippon Kaigi, an ultranationalist, militarist far-right organization and lobbying group.
Something very weird happened here, and the Japanese media doesn't seem to know what, at least not yet. If the "will of the people" argument worked, why didn't it have any effect in the first round of voting? The Diet members knew exactly how the party members had voted when they went in to cast their ballots. If there was any sense she was going to win, some would have jumped on the bandwagon in the first round. Yet she finished a pretty distant third, proving the media counts going in to be exactly right. But their counts for the runoff were exactly wrong. Where did all those votes come from and why were they held back from her in the first round? Why would legislators tell the truth to the media about what they were doing in the first round then completely lie about the second? Why was Takaichi's team struggling to be optimistic going in, seeming to think they needed some sort of miracle? Something fishy happened here. Have to wonder if Aso suddenly called in three or four decades worth of blackmail.
Glorious-Motor

2h ago

The LDP is a minority party. She's not getting elected.
D-Artagnan

4h ago

fuck yes
Axechennnnvonxua...

4h ago

woman power

6h ago

Why did it change so much so drastically? Takaichi made a miracle or what?

6h ago

Crazy to watch this flip.

6h ago

I feel like no Japanese person wants to be scolded like this.
WOW...!
Today's vote is an election to determine the president of the LDP and is not strictly an election to determine the prime minister.

6h ago

yes we can!!
anyone holding takaichi got balls of steel
nostradamic
JGB's are gonna dump like crazy on open lmao. inflation also likely to rise greatly if shes serious about tax cuts and cash handouts
nostradamic
@JeromeWaitan...
Unfortunately yes. Koizumi would've been betterp pick.
kakuyomu

6h ago

my money...

6h ago

@kakuyomu
its over bro
Angelic-Barracks

6h ago

Japan is not to be underestimated.

6h ago

This market will remain open until the Prime Minister's decision. Do not settle matters here. The Prime Minister is expected to make a decision on October 15th.

6h ago

For the first time in Japanese history, a woman becomes Prime Minister. Congratulations, Sanae.
harajuku

6h ago

@depeg
An anti-woman, woman, yes.
damn wtf
🤺JustWakingUp
🤺JustWakingUp

7h ago

Man those were terrible odds that y'all were putting up there, i kept scratching my head figuring I was missing something. Takaichi was the favorite, but she was at 15c lol
@🤺JustWaking...
Troll. She was not. And you weren't holding shares.
Bobbers
Bobbers

7h ago

GG

7h ago

GG
Arthur2020

7h ago

gg

7h ago

Good Game
nostradamic
Wow Sanae might actually come out on top
nostradamic
NEW : MAJOR INSIDER SUGGESTS SUPPORT FOR SANAE COULD SOLIDIFY
nostradamic
@nostradamic
Called it 10 mins before the news broke.
maclogcy
maclogcy

7h ago

why Shinjiro Koizumi is dropping
nostradamic
What happened to the Hayashi bros? 😂 It's a two horse race, it always was, and although Koizumi is most likely to win, Sanae should be higher odds

7h ago

u can watch live for NHK
MamboDeVelekete
MamboDeVelekete

7h ago

Smart money on Koizumi now. The runoff is mostly diet votes, and most dropped candidates are closer to Koizumi - both work against Sanae
nostradamic
@MamboDeVelek...
What happened to ur smart money? 😢

7h ago

First Round Results: Takaichi: 183 votes Koizumi: 164 votes Hayashi: 134 votes Takaichi and Koizumi advance to the finals.
@2997qwer
takaichi cooked then
0xkakashi

8h ago

live stream here:
0xkakashi

8h ago

@0xkakashi
can't post the link but its on nicovideo

11h ago

when result come out
Bobbers
Bobbers

10h ago

@Yolandera
First Round Results 07:00 CEST - 09:00 CEST ; Run-off Results (if necessary) 10:00 CEST - 12:00 CEST
Humble-Main

23h ago

still have a chance
Roulette

1d ago

Why is Takaichi so low while leading the polls?
konrad.
konrad.

23h ago

@Roulette
takaichi leads the ldp party members vote, but is third among lawmakers. if she makes it into the runoff, which is likely but not sure, she will not have enough support to win. the 2nd round uses a different voting method, with the same lawmakers that didnt support her in the 1st round casting the vast majority of the votes
Roulette

23h ago

@konrad.
thanks
O3O

1d ago

It's quite a shame that Sanae Takaichi, the most popular candidate among the Japanese people, might be the first to drop out.
nostradamic
@O3O
😂
O3O

6h ago

@nostradamic
I don't know what happened, but Japanese democracy is pretty reasonable.
fuj
fuj

1d ago

Now Hayashi is getting serious chance into second round
Ornery-Slapstick

22h ago

@fuj
lies
madCasper

1d ago

Fun. Cool. Se....(?).
@madCasper
Home. say. yung...?
squid game
Bobbers
Bobbers

2d ago

@JeromeWaitan...
thats korean, but pretty much the same in the end anyways
SusanWarrenHR
SusanWarrenHR

2d ago

@Bobbers
Don't even.
nostradamic
Real odds:
Koizumi will win, nothing ever happens

3d ago

I have never seen a tourist kick a deer in Nara, but those LDP boys sure are kicking the crap out of Takaichi. Begging a severely weakened Aso to come to her side again is not a good look. She should have had him in the bag weeks ago. Time to bow out and try to save face. Shout out to comon119, who either hates money or doing basic math. Good arguments for both I suppose.
fuj
fuj

3d ago

Takaochi is popular among public, while Koizumi leads with party members…. so place your bet wisely
nostradamic
So many people pretending to be Japanese to try to pump Hayashi so they can dump their positions 😂 "KANARI HIKUI WA" 😂😂
bro6969
bro6969

2d ago

@nostradamic
Buy more Sanae, please!!!!
nostradamic
@bro6969
Buy more Hayashi lil bro
Bobbers
Bobbers

4d ago

Come on guys, Koizumi might be a young cool and hip guy, but he cant produce a banger like Hayashi does: https://youtu.be/gv8x2AqjZP8?si=9umxqCcYejTntYdE
bro6969
bro6969

4d ago

Koizumi 1, Hayashi. 2, Takaichi 3, According to Asahi News these are the current rankings, so it baffles the mind why this market has Takaichi 3x higher than Hayashi
bro6969
bro6969

4d ago

Hayashi-san ga kanari hikui wa!
A second scandal involving Koizumi has just been revealed by Bunshun. It’s far more serious than the first one.
oooj
oooj

4d ago

It is natural that Shinjiro Koizumi will be elected.
Suburban-Acre

4d ago

Wow. Interesting comment. There's just one thing I'd like to teach this 'Japan expert': former Prime Minister Kishida's faction, the Kochikai, has implicitly shown that they will not vote for Takaichi. 'Prime Minister Takaichi'? That's nonsense. In any case, Koizumi is the most promising candidate.
nostradamic
Don't fall for the fake "Japanese" commenters trying to pump Hayashi 😂
nostradamic
@nostradamic
I actually prefer Hayashi and would like him to become PM. Unfortunately, it won't happen.
nostradamic
Hayashi is considered to be "pro-China". He will never be selected as PM.
nostradamic
The LDP has learned its lesson in promoting old men who no one likes or cares about to be PM. They won't make the same mistake again - this time it will be Sanae or Koizumi. Hayashi has 0 chance of becoming PM.
hiro87474847

4d ago

Hayashi is underrated.
Suburban-Acre

4d ago

Hey guys, I'm Japanese (Sorry for my poor English)
Suburban-Acre

4d ago

@Suburban-Acr...
The article indicates Hayashi has strong support from lawmakers. If, as predicted, he inherits a large portion of Ishiba's previous votes, it's highly likely he'll be in the final round of voting.
Suburban-Acre

4d ago

@Suburban-Acr...
Oh, may be I can't send a URL on this site.
nostradamic
Sanae is too cheap. Should be around 45% chance and tied with Koizumi.
nostradamic
NEW: two polls show Sanae is the most popular choice for PM both among the general electorate and among LDP members. The majority of LDP congressmen remain unannounced, so the apparent support for Koizumi could prove to be illusory. Abe was Japan's most popular and loved PM - and Sanae is his protege

4d ago

@nostradamic
Abe has become a thing of the past
buoys

5d ago

Uh oh, the bots are malfunctioning
Extrawelt

6d ago

some weird rumors floating around koizumi will drop
getreadyfor

6d ago

Koizumi Love
This is still a YES for my good looking man Koizumi
@JeromeWaitan...
His dad’s a former Prime Minister, his brother’s a popular actor, and his wife’s a famous TV host. Even people who don’t care about politics know who he is, and he’s good-looking too. Lawmakers think he’s perfect as the face of an election.
TJpols

6d ago

@Fearful-Junk...
If so why didn't he win in the last election?
No shot Sanae Takaichi actually wins right? Japan desperately needs immigration if they're not willing to have kids or change work culture. How does loose fiscal expansion at a time when inflation is above target and debt to GDP is above 200% make sense? If she wins JGB yields would only stay elevated

7d ago

I feel like the odds here are really strange. Why does Shinjiro have such a high approval rating? He opened a TikTok account to try and win over young voters, but it totally backfired, and then there was that scandal about him trashing his own party rivals. Honestly, I don’t think his online support is even 10%. Almost everyone online seems to be backing Takaichi, like 90%. And since this isn’t a direct election, diet member who are thinking about their own chances in the next election probably won’t want to throw their support behind Shinjiro.
Can any Japs give a thesis to Takaichi winning? What do Diet votes look like? (I love anime)
nostradamic
@LarryKudlow
The most recent polling indicates she is the most popular among the general public and among LDP rank and file. The majority of LDP congressmen have not declared support either way. So odds for Sanae should be closer to 45%
fuj
fuj

7d ago

Seems no japanese are betting here…
@fuj
I want to bet,but online gambling is illegal for Japanese
fuj
fuj

7d ago

@Fearful-Junk...
I see… thanks…

8d ago

when will result come out?

7d ago

8d ago

I AM MORON
A major scandal about Shinjiro has just been reported by Bunshun.
Koizumi best looking out of all the candidates, he deserves to W
caiou

10d ago

did anything happen?
Sanae is done…. Unfortunately. Weired how she was second last time but now doesn’t have chance…. Better dump her ass while there is money in the order books

11d ago

Noooooooooooooo

9d ago

@Sweetcheeks6...
then go for Hayashi. great odds
At yesterday’s joint rally, Ms. Takaichi sang songs and spoke about abstract conservative ideology. It’s safe to assume she has effectively given up on becoming Prime Minister. Only hard-core right-wingers can follow her now.
HAYASHI for the suprise win!!!!

19d ago

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20250915-281069/ Thoughts? Altough it eon't be decided by voters, and also amond LDP voters Koizumi is leading
Sanae Takaichi winning would be bad for JGB holders, keeping a close eye on this race.
@NoSteinNoGat...
aggressive fiscal policy and a continuation of easy monetary policy. The classic conservative thing to do nowadays

21d ago

I believe japan is not progressive enough for woman prime minister.
caiou

23d ago

boomers need to go
Only Sanae Takaichi can save Japan
lingque123

20d ago

@JuJuHakusho
Are you Japanese? It seems that this election results are decided by members of Congress, not ordinary people.

24d ago

Wheres the indian one vote for him
hopefully someone actually rightwing this time...
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Sanae Takaichi

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