BREAKING: Ultraconservative politician Sanae Takaichi has won the leadership election for Japan's largest party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), in an upset. She has been described as "far right" by other members of her party and is a member of Nippon Kaigi, an ultranationalist, militarist far-right organization and lobbying group.
Something very weird happened here, and the Japanese media doesn't seem to know what, at least not yet. If the "will of the people" argument worked, why didn't it have any effect in the first round of voting? The Diet members knew exactly how the party members had voted when they went in to cast their ballots. If there was any sense she was going to win, some would have jumped on the bandwagon in the first round. Yet she finished a pretty distant third, proving the media counts going in to be exactly right. But their counts for the runoff were exactly wrong. Where did all those votes come from and why were they held back from her in the first round? Why would legislators tell the truth to the media about what they were doing in the first round then completely lie about the second? Why was Takaichi's team struggling to be optimistic going in, seeming to think they needed some sort of miracle? Something fishy happened here. Have to wonder if Aso suddenly called in three or four decades worth of blackmail.
This market will remain open until the Prime Minister's decision. Do not settle matters here. The Prime Minister is expected to make a decision on October 15th.
Man those were terrible odds that y'all were putting up there, i kept scratching my head figuring I was missing something. Takaichi was the favorite, but she was at 15c lol
takaichi leads the ldp party members vote, but is third among lawmakers. if she makes it into the runoff, which is likely but not sure, she will not have enough support to win. the 2nd round uses a different voting method, with the same lawmakers that didnt support her in the 1st round casting the vast majority of the votes
I have never seen a tourist kick a deer in Nara, but those LDP boys sure are kicking the crap out of Takaichi. Begging a severely weakened Aso to come to her side again is not a good look. She should have had him in the bag weeks ago. Time to bow out and try to save face. Shout out to comon119, who either hates money or doing basic math. Good arguments for both I suppose.
Come on guys, Koizumi might be a young cool and hip guy, but he cant produce a banger like Hayashi does: https://youtu.be/gv8x2AqjZP8?si=9umxqCcYejTntYdE
Koizumi 1, Hayashi. 2, Takaichi 3, According to Asahi News these are the current rankings, so it baffles the mind why this market has Takaichi 3x higher than Hayashi
Wow. Interesting comment. There's just one thing I'd like to teach this 'Japan expert': former Prime Minister Kishida's faction, the Kochikai, has implicitly shown that they will not vote for Takaichi. 'Prime Minister Takaichi'? That's nonsense. In any case, Koizumi is the most promising candidate.
The LDP has learned its lesson in promoting old men who no one likes or cares about to be PM. They won't make the same mistake again - this time it will be Sanae or Koizumi. Hayashi has 0 chance of becoming PM.
The article indicates Hayashi has strong support from lawmakers. If, as predicted, he inherits a large portion of Ishiba's previous votes, it's highly likely he'll be in the final round of voting.
NEW: two polls show Sanae is the most popular choice for PM both among the general electorate and among LDP members. The majority of LDP congressmen remain unannounced, so the apparent support for Koizumi could prove to be illusory. Abe was Japan's most popular and loved PM - and Sanae is his protege
His dad’s a former Prime Minister, his brother’s a popular actor, and his wife’s a famous TV host. Even people who don’t care about politics know who he is, and he’s good-looking too. Lawmakers think he’s perfect as the face of an election.
No shot Sanae Takaichi actually wins right? Japan desperately needs immigration if they're not willing to have kids or change work culture. How does loose fiscal expansion at a time when inflation is above target and debt to GDP is above 200% make sense? If she wins JGB yields would only stay elevated
I feel like the odds here are really strange. Why does Shinjiro have such a high approval rating? He opened a TikTok account to try and win over young voters, but it totally backfired, and then there was that scandal about him trashing his own party rivals. Honestly, I don’t think his online support is even 10%. Almost everyone online seems to be backing Takaichi, like 90%. And since this isn’t a direct election, diet member who are thinking about their own chances in the next election probably won’t want to throw their support behind Shinjiro.
The most recent polling indicates she is the most popular among the general public and among LDP rank and file. The majority of LDP congressmen have not declared support either way. So odds for Sanae should be closer to 45%
Sanae is done…. Unfortunately. Weired how she was second last time but now doesn’t have chance…. Better dump her ass while there is money in the order books
At yesterday’s joint rally, Ms. Takaichi sang songs and spoke about abstract conservative ideology. It’s safe to assume she has effectively given up on becoming Prime Minister. Only hard-core right-wingers can follow her now.
https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20250915-281069/ Thoughts? Altough it eon't be decided by voters, and also amond LDP voters Koizumi is leading
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