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TAINAN, Taiwan -- Officials and experts say Taiwan is prepared for extensive cooperation between China and Russia in a contingency, after a think tank report sounded the alarm over Moscow providing equipment and expertise that could help Chinese forces orchestrate an airborne invasion.
Russia has agreed to equip and train China's armed forces to air-drop armored vehicles and special reconnaissance capabilities, according to an analysis of leaked Russian documents released late last week by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a venerable British think tank. The report underscores how Russia's modern combat experience in Ukraine and elsewhere -- experience the Chinese People's Liberation Army lacks -- could bring real benefits for Beijing.
Taiwan has a full grasp of the situation and has made preparations for the revelations in the report, according to a government official involved in national security who spoke on condition of anonymity.
When asked about the report on Tuesday, Chen Yung-po, deputy director-general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told Nikkei Asia that MOFA is aware of military cooperation between China and Russia, and highlighted Taipei's commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait as a responsible international actor.
RUSI studied about 800 pages of documents exposed by hacktivist group Black Moon, including contracts and lists of equipment. The documents show Russia agreed in 2023 to supply the PLA with a complete set of weapons and equipment for an airborne battalion, as well as other special equipment necessary for airborne infiltration of special forces. It also offered training for operators and technical personnel to use this equipment.
China has openly declared its ambitions to control Taiwan, which it considers its territory. RUSI warned that "Moscow increasingly sees the invasion of Taiwan -- and subsequent division of the global economic order into opposing spheres -- as a means of building leverage over Beijing by making Russia a supplier of critical raw materials and military industrial capacity."
Moscow "is equipping and training Chinese special forces groups to penetrate the territory of other countries without being noticed, offering offensive options against Taiwan, the Philippines and other island states in the region," the report adds.
The Taiwanese security official said that in fact, military cooperation between China and Russia exceeds even what is described in the report.
"On the whole, the military cooperation between Russia and China in the Indo-Pacific region is more obviously for the important purpose of strategically restraining European and American parties in Europe and Asia," the official added.
Paratroopers jump from a C-130 Hercules aircraft during Taiwan's Han Kuang military drills in 2018, simulating a Chinese invasion. © Reuters Lin Ying-yu of New Taipei's Tamkang University and an expert on the PLA said Taiwan has been well-aware of the risk of Russia helping China in the event of an invasion or attack.
"I'm more worried about how Russia's military uses their real combat experience in Ukraine and the Black Sea to assist China than the expertise in airdropping armored vehicles," Lin told Nikkei Asia.
"Russia's navy has been coping with Ukraine's attacks from the shores, which is aided by the U.S. and other Western countries on communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance," Lin said. "The same -- Taiwan fending off the Chinese navy in the Taiwan Strait with help from the U.S. -- is a likely scenario if Beijing launches an attack. Russia's experience and capabilities trained in the Black Sea in dealing with the Ukrainians may really strengthen China's ability to respond to Taiwan's defenses."
RUSI highlighted the threat of airdropping armored vehicles on golf courses, or other open areas near Taiwan's ports and airfields, saying this would make air assault troops more effective and raise the chances of seizing such facilities to clear the way for landing forces.
Lin, however, contended that airports would be the main focus.
"For the PLA, for an attack that will amount to subjugating or conquering Taiwan, occupying a major airport remains far more important than airdropping troops or armored vehicles on runways, ports and golf courses," Lin said. "That's the reason why our annual Han Kuang exercises involve defending Taoyuan International Airport."
Ming-Shih Shen of the Taiwanese defense ministry's think tank INDSR observed that Russia has conducted rapid airborne assaults in Afghanistan and Ukraine, and with Russian assistance and know-how, China may be keen to emulate such maneuvers in hopes of a swift victory in Taiwan.
Still, Shen said that the PLA Air Force only has one airborne corps, comprising six brigades. These brigades rely on large transport aircraft for parachute drops. He said this would be risky and that even if fighting vehicles could be dropped from the aircraft, their firepower after landing would be insufficient.
He stressed that Taiwan has already prepared counter-airborne measures in key zones to guard against such operations. At major airports, golf courses and plateaus, not only will mechanized forces be deployed to counter assaults from the sky, but obstacles will be erected to prevent large-scale landings.
An additional challenge for Chinese helicopter-based air mobility operations is the fuel burden to fly to Taiwan, necessitating the use of forward bases or amphibious landing ships as helicopter attack platforms, according to Shen. These ships would be targets for Taiwan's long-range anti-ship missiles, while the helicopters would be vulnerable to 1,000 Stinger missiles, combined with Taiwan's advanced attack helicopters and low altitude air-defense systems.
