Editorial | US and China must build on positive Xi-Trump call to stabilise ties
Ahead of a Xi-Trump meeting and more trade talks, both sides must be alert to unexpected incidents that may throw the relationship off course
China has often emphasised the importance of direct talks between Xi and Trump in stabilising complicated bilateral ties. So the phone call serves as a platform for setting direction. It has confirmed a face-to-face meeting in Seoul during the Apec summit in less than six weeks, paving the way for Trump’s visit to Beijing next year and Xi’s reciprocal visit.
Trump remains unpredictable so policy flip-flops cannot be ruled out. Beijing still insists on fair treatment of Chinese investment so the question is what China gets in return for any TikTok deal. It wants a proper framework for its companies abroad to grow and develop, including in the US market.
The trade negotiations may serve as a reference for Chinese companies going global, which tend to avoid the US market in favour of developing countries including those in Southeast Asia and the Brics grouping. But the US is still a big, attractive market if issues can be resolved on the basis of mutual respect and benefits. The Chinese government has always held that investment abroad – whether in the US or the smallest countries – must comply with local laws.
Trump’s visit to China, originally planned for this winter, has been moved to the spring, suggesting both sides still need to work out the details. Thorny issues include controls on critical rare earth minerals and semiconductor chips, as well as tariffs and other trade issues.
There are still many weeks before Xi and Trump’s meeting at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum. China and the US also need to prepare for their next round of trade talks. Both sides need to be alert for any unexpected incident that may throw the relationship off course, as the 2023 shooting down of a Chinese “spy” balloon over the US did. The coming weeks will be critical. The bilateral relationship between the most powerful nations is so important for both countries, and to the world that, hopefully, they can find a way to at least keep their rivalry stable and within guard rails. This depends on both sides maintaining the current positive direction.
Xi-Trump call sparks hopes for stability but worries linger over tariff threats, Taiwan
Risks from South China Sea or Taiwan Strait conflicts and US tariff threats may derail positive momentum, analysts warn
However, they also sounded a note of caution. One analyst highlighted serious sources of friction, such as confrontations in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, while another warned that US tariff threats over China’s purchase of Russian oil and potential American secondary sanctions could also hurt the positive momentum.
In the nearly two-hour phone call starting at 8pm Beijing time, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Donald Trump discussed topics ranging from trade frictions to a deal on the control of TikTok.
It was the second call between the two leaders since Trump’s return to the White House in January and their third this year.
Trump described Friday’s talks as “very productive”, while Beijing said the phone call was “pragmatic, positive and constructive”.
In what many read as a sign of potential stability in bilateral relations, Trump announced that he and Xi would meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea in six weeks, and that he also planned to visit China “in the early part of next year”.
Xi, “likewise [would] come to the United States at an appropriate time”, Trump said in a social media post after the call.
“Overall, this conversation signals that Sino-US relations will gain greater stability and predictability in the next phase,” Wu said.
“Moving forward, both sides should work in the same direction and make joint efforts to create conditions, improve the atmosphere, and ultimately achieve more concrete outcomes to announce in future high-level engagements.”
China-US ties have been on a roller-coaster ride since Trump reignited his tariff war with key trading partners shortly after returning to power.
Tariff rates reached triple digits in April following a tit-for-tat battle that nearly halted commerce between the world’s two largest economies. It was not until May that both sides agreed to a truce and lowered tariffs. Three high-level trade meetings have since been held – in Geneva in May, London in June and, most recently, in Madrid over September 14-15.
Wu said frictions and volatility were likely to continue, but the two sides needed to find ways to manage them to avoid serious disruptions.
“The question is how to avoid violent fluctuations or serious confrontations that could derail the relationship,” he said. “For example, in trade ties, the two sides should continue to talk to seek consensus rather than dramatically raising tariffs as Trump did when he assumed office.”
He said the sources of serious tensions included the South China Sea and Taiwan.
“If a crisis erupts over the Taiwan issue, bilateral ties could risk a complete breakdown, and any meetings or visits would become impossible.”
Taiwan, which Beijing sees as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary, remains a “red line” issue in its relations with Washington. The US is Taiwan’s biggest international backer but, like most countries, does not recognise the self-governed island as an independent state. However, it is opposed to any attempt to take Taiwan by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
In the South China Sea, Beijing’s frequent confrontations with rival claimant the Philippines – a US treaty ally – have raised concerns over drawing Washington into a potential military conflict.
In a statement on the TikTok issue, Beijing’s Ministry of Commerce said on Saturday that it supported negotiations based on market principles to reach solutions that complied with Chinese laws and balanced the interests of all parties involved.
The US wants the short video platform to be divested of Chinese ownership. The deadline for ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, to sell or divest its US operations to a non-Chinese owner was September 17, but Trump has extended it once again to December 16.
Zhu Junwei, director of Horizon Insights Centre, a Beijing-based think tank, said while the framework TikTok deal reached in Madrid would “undoubtedly help stabilise bilateral ties”, the final details and whether “it will be a once-and-for-all solution or could face future challenges” remained to be seen.
“From Beijing’s perspective, this is yet another unwelcome complication – an attempt by Trump to pull Europe into jointly sanctioning China. However, from the American viewpoint, Trump’s intention is actually to pressure Europe into stopping its push for the US to sanction Russia, a nuance that may be difficult for Beijing to fully comprehend.”
The West, which has heavily sanctioned Russia, says such moves aim to increase economic pressure on Moscow to end its war in Ukraine – by limiting revenue streams that help sustain Russian military efforts.
If the EU follows with new measures against China, “it would risk triggering another vicious cycle”, Zhu said.
“Trump is highly skilled at creating leverage, and it is likely precisely this concern over uncertainty that has led Chinese officials to phrase the statement so cautiously, leaving no room for firm commitments,” she said, referring to the absence of any mention of planned meetings or visits by the leaders in the readout from Beijing.
